UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Odds & Picks: Bets for Arlovsk, Ankalaev & More

With a brief hiatus over the holidays, the UFC returns with an exciting Fight Night card as a precursor to the UFC 297 next week. With multiple rematches, a former champ, and exciting fighters looking to stamp their mark on their division, the card should see plenty of action throughout. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Odds & Picks: Bets for Arlovski, Ankalaev & More

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev-Walker 2 | Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Pick

It’s always difficult to determine when to stop backing an aging fighter, especially one who was as much a pioneer of the sport as one can get in the heavyweight division. Perhaps that time has come for Andrei Arlovski, as he enters this bout on a two-fight skid. Even before the losses, Arlovski’s previous two wins have come via split decision, meaning he hasn’t won in a particularly convincing fashion as of late. This becomes even more concerning when compared to Cortes-Acosta’s hot start to his UFC career. However, Arlovski’s career has been defined by streakiness, and a matchup with an inexperienced fighter who is heavily favored could be just the thing he needs to jumpstart another run.

While no win in the UFC can be considered easy, it is clear that Arlovski is a big step up in competition from the fighters Cortes-Acosta has beaten. None of Cortes-Acosta’s three wins came against a fighter with a winning record — the only time he took on a fighter with a record above .500, he lost in a lopsided decision. It is difficult to imagine Cortes-Acosta steamrolling a fighter of Arlovski’s pedigree when he hasn’t proven himself in that way to this point.

Cortes-Acosta should throw a high volume of strikes, as he lands 6.97 significant strikes per minute. However, Arlovski boasts solid striking defense with a 57% strike defense rate. His ability to fight at such a high level and to defend himself well will be paramount in warding off his opponent’s pressure.

Because his career has featured so many ups and downs, it’s difficult to predict which Andrei Arlovski we’ll see on Saturday. Nonetheless, it still appears that he has some fight left in him, as he is 6-3 in his last nine fights dating back to 2020. Oddsmakers give him less than a 20% chance to win, which is a risk well worth taking given the vast experience gap between the fighters.

Best UFC Arlovski-Cortes-Acosta Bet & Pick: Arlovski ML +465 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev-Walker 2 | Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Pick

Each fighter experienced brutal knockouts in their most recent bouts. Hawes got put out in his last two fights, making three of his last four knockout losses. Ferreira got caught early in his last fight, which marked his first professional loss. Both Ferreira and Hawes need to make adjustments to avoid the early KO again, particularly as each of them lands more than five and a half significant strikes per minute. Ferreira’s camp mentioned the need to adjust coming into the fight: they hinted at adjustments the team made to add weapons to Ferreira’s arsenal and claimed they expect him to show his acumen in Judo.

For Hawes’ part, it would also make sense for him to adjust to a grappling-heavy approach, especially since he wrestled in college. With two knockout wins and three knockout losses, keeping the fight standing is strategically a feast-or-famine proposition for Hawes. On the other hand, Hawes won both of his fights that went the distance, amassing over eleven minutes and five and a half minutes of control time in each respective decision. Forcing Ferreira to defend the takedown, especially when none of his previous opponents pressured him with grappling, adds a wrinkle that may mitigate the knockout threat and open up opportunities for Hawes on the feet.

In sum, three of the fighters’ eight combined UFC fights went past the halfway point of round two for a rate of 37%. Three of the five fights that ended in the first round did so in its final minute. These one-shot fight-enders at the end of rounds can be hard to rely on consistently when predicting the length of the fight, and they’re likely skewing the data lower than it deserves to be. Given that the implied odds of the over 1.5 rounds line sits at 34%, and the fact these fighters may make strategic adjustments, the edge on this line could well exceed the existing 3% difference.

Best UFC Hawes-Ferreira Bet & Pick: Total Rounds Over 1.5 +190 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev-Walker 2 | Ricky Simón-Mario Bautista Pick

With both fighters entering in good form, I expect them to take a measured approach early. However, the -150 odds for this fight to end in a decision do not comport with each fighter’s demonstrated ability to end the fight before the final bell. Only nine of these fighters’ combined 20 fights resulted in a decision, good for a rate of 45%. Given that this sits well below the implied odds of 60%, there is certainly an edge on a different method of victory. The central question is whether there is an edge to betting on KO/TKO or submission — or whether an edge exists for both.

Bautista is a high-output fighter on the feet, landing 5.32 significant strikes per minute. However, he claimed only one knockout in his first nine UFC fights and only three in his fifteen professional fights. Paired with Simón’s relatively low striking output — he lands just 3.01 significant strikes per minute — it’s difficult to imagine this one ending in a knockout. Indeed, only two of their twenty combined fights (10%) resulted in a knockout victory for either fighter. Even taking KO losses into account, only 25% of their fights have ended in a KO/TKO, sitting below the implied odds set by the bookmakers at around 29% (+250).

Where the bookmakers have most mispriced this market, based on the fighters’ results to this point in their career, is the submission victory line. You’ll find it trading at +300 on DraftKings. Both fighters procure takedowns at a high rate, with Bautista securing 2.72 takedowns in fifteen minutes of fight time and Simón getting a whopping 5.84 takedowns per fifteen minutes. It seems clear that the fight will find its way to the ground early and often, barring an inexplicable strategic change by either fighter.

Both Bautista and Simón know what to do when they get to the ground, and they each employ an aggressive, fight-ending mentality while there, instead of relying on control time to win on the cards. Of their twenty combined fights, Bautista and Simón amassed six submission victories. Bautista is not perfect on the ground, as he fell victim to an armbar against Corey Sandhagen. The rate at which Bautista and Simón’s fights ended in submission sits at 35%. Since the implied odds for submission clock in at 25%, this line offers an edge for bettors looking for a higher-risk wager.

Best UFC Simón-Bautista Bet & Pick: Exact Method of Victory – Submission +300 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev-Walker 2 | Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez Pick

In their past few fights, both Benitez and Miller found success or failure through the knockout, but this recent trend doesn’t fully reflect their overall careers. Combined, the fighters went to the judges’ cards in 23 of their 51 UFC fights (45%). This is largely driven by Miller, as 19 of his 41 fights went the distance.

Miller’s propensity for longer fights is unsurprising given his relatively low striking output: he lands just 2.86 significant strikes per minute. While his recent knockout streak came as the result of him employing a more aggressive style, likely due to his paltry 8-11 record in fights ending in decision, Miller won’t want to stand and bang with Benitez. Landing nearly five significant strikes per minute and procuring three knockouts, Benitez poses a real danger on the feet that Miller would be wise to mitigate as much as possible.

Benitez struggles to defend when grappling. He stuffs his opponent’s takedown attempts just 58% of the time, Miller would be best served taking the fight to the ground early and often. Procuring substantial amounts of control time will allow Miller to avoid Benitez’s stopping power and will cut out the possibility he gets out-pointed on the feet. With odds the fight goes to decision sitting at +200, bookmakers have left an edge for bettors anticipating a long, drawn-out fight.

Best UFC Miller-Benitez Bet & Pick: Exact Method of Victory – Decision +200 at DraftKings

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UUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 | Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Pick

Ankalaev’s career, to a lesser degree than Walker’s, has also been unpredictable. After losing his first fight by submission, Ankalaev went on a nine-fight tear through the light heavyweight division, adding yet another name to the list of seemingly unstoppable Dagestani fighters. He hit a minor snag in his last two fights, however, with a five-round draw against former Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz and the no-contest against Walker. It’s been a year and a half since his last decisive result.

One thing that is predictable about these fighters is that they tend to keep the fight standing. In their combined 48 professional MMA fights, these two have combined for a total of four submission victories, with just one coming in the UFC. Since entering the UFC, Ankalaev has only earned one takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time. For his part, Walker only procures a half takedown per fifteen minutes. With their respective takedown success rates, thsee fighters combine for less than four takedown attempts per three-round bout.

This aversion to grappling heavily influenced the total rounds market. You can buy the over 1.5 rounds at odds of just -166. The logic makes sense, as grappling-heavy fights tend to eat more clock and have less chance of ending with a random knockout shot than those that remain standing. However, in a five-round fight, the reliance placed on an early stoppage is likely misplaced. For starters, Walker and Ankalaev aren’t particularly high-output strikers, landing 3.87 and 3.56 significant strikes per minute, respectively. While not paltry, they hardly compare to the output of the previous three light heavyweight champions – Alex Pereira, Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka – who land 5, 7.31 and 5.31 significant strikes per minute.

Ankalaev’s fights have grown longer as his competition gets stiffer. Before his first Walker bout, each of Ankalaev’s previous five fights went past the halfway point in the second round. Eight of Ankalaev’s eleven UFC fights went longer than seven and a half minutes for a rate of 72.7%. Out of the eight that went past the 1.5-round mark, only one ended before the halfway point of the third round, meaning 63.6% of Ankalaev’s fights went over 2.5 rounds.

Walker’s history of ending fights early certainly brought the total rounds line lower as eight of his twelve UFC fights didn’t make it out of the first round. Put together, twelve of the fighters’ combined 23 fights went past the halfway mark of the second round, 11 of which went past the halfway mark of the second. This is in the ballpark of the implied odds for the total rounds’ lines set by the books, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Walker won six of his eight fights that ended in the first round. Coming in as a heavy underdog, it’s unlikely that Walker will land a quick knockout like we’re used to seeing from him. The line for Walker to win by submission or knockout at any point in the fight is set at +550 with implied odds of around 15%, leaving the chances that Walker finishes the fight in the first or second round around 10%. Given that this is the exact type of victory that has skewed the data the most, it’s risky to rely on it to justify betting the under on the total rounds market.

The added two rounds give the over even more of an edge, as each fighter will have to manage their stamina to adjust to the possibility of a longer fight. In all, riding with the over 1.5 rounds at -166 and laddering it up to 2.5 is a safe bet barring a massive Walker upset.

Best UFC Ankalaev-Walker Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -166 at DraftKings & Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings

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