UFC Fight Night Barbosa vs. Murphy Odds & Picks: Bets for Gorimbo, Murphy & More

With the last Fight Night card before UFC 302, UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy may not have immediate earth-shattering consequences for any division’s title picture, but it still has the potential to set up some winners for a run towards the top. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy Odds & Picks

All bets from DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Alatengheili-Kleydson Rodrigues Pick

Though Rodrigues has somewhat shaky takedown defense, I anticipate he does enough to stay on the feet and win either by a comfortable decision or by a knockout.

Alatengheili has made something of a habit drawing his fights to a decision. In his seven UFC fights, six went to decision, with the only other being a knockout victory. Nonetheless, they haven’t been easy victories. In all but one of the decisions, Alatengheili was outstruck by his opponents, many of which were quite substantial.

For this reason, Alatengheili’s striking numbers aren’t pretty. He lands just 2.88 significant strikes per minute, which is quite low for a Bantamweight. If he was a defensive counterstriker or a jiu jitsu specialist, these numbers could be forgiven, but he only averages 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time with no submission attempts.

Worse yet, he absorbs a staggering 5.03 significant strikes per minute, meaning he eats two shots for every one he lands. Alatengheili’s inefficiency on the feet is a big reason for his striking woes. He only lands 33% of his significant strikes, which puts him in his opponent’s line of fire without landing much offense.

Somehow, he found a way to squeak out decision victories against Ryan Benoit and Batgerel Danaa despite being outstruck 47-68 and 38-85, respectively. He didn’t find the same result when Chris Gutierrez landed 110 significant strikes to his measly 38, and if this pattern continues, he will certainly find it difficult to continue winning decisions.

Rodrigues, on the other hand, is a dynamic striker that will most likely be able to capitalize on Alatengheili’s poor stand-up. In his four UFC fights, counting his appearance on the Contender Series, Rodrigues lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute at a whopping 62%. Despite his aggression, Rodrigues does a good job of keeping himself protected, only absorbing 2.75 significant strikes per minute.

His biggest question mark is his takedown defense, as he was taken to the ground in his last fight against Farid Basharat twice and finished with a submission in the first round. However, Alatengheili is nowhere near the grappler Basharat is, as Basharat lands a staggering 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. It is certainly forgivable to fall victim to Basharat’s grappling as all of his previous opponents had.

This fight will not be particularly close. Coming off the Basharat loss in September, Rodrigues will likely focus a lot of his energy on improving his takedown defense, which will allow him to piece up Alatengheili on the feet. Take Rodrigues’ moneyline while laddering it with either the spread or with Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ.

Best UFC Alatengheili–Rodrigues Bet & Pick: Rodrigues Moneyline (-148)

---

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Victor Martinez-Tom Nolan Pick

Much of the focus coming into this bout is on Martinez’s poor performance on the Contender Series and in his debut. Some say he may be the worst Lightweight on the roster, with slow hands, which exposes him to severe damage from faster opponents.

On the flip side, the same commentators remark how fast and dynamic Tom Nolan looks, without much attention to the fact he was blown up by Nikolas Motta, who came into that fight with a 2-2 record landing only 33% of his significant strikes. Though Motta may be a more dynamic striker than Martinez, pinning Nolan as a -520 favorite is a headscratcher.

There are two main arguments for Nolan winning this fight. The first is the eye test. If you remove the fight against Motta, Nolan appears to have the edge in speed and ferocity on the feet compared to Martinez. The other argument is pedigree prior to coming into the UFC, with Martinez having a longer journey in the regional scene as opposed to Nolan. However, dinging Martinez for this, when his last loss in the regional scene came in 2016 seems unfair.

Neither of these edges are meaningful enough, in my view, to justify setting a line with the implied probability of a Nolan victory sitting over 75%. With little data to go off of, there isn’t really an edge to find here. I’ll likely sit this one out or throw a small-money bet on the heavy underdog to give it a bit more intrigue. My best advice would be to hit the bathroom or refill your drink during this one before the main card starts.

Best UFC Martinez-Nolan Bet & Pick: Martinez Moneyline (+340)

---

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Luana Pinheiro-Angela Hill Pick

Hill’s bread and butter is her stand up. A former world championship kickboxer, Hill has both the experience and the technical ability to make it a long night for Pinheiro if the fight remains on the feet. On the flip side, Pinheiro is an accomplished judoka who has translated her grappling well in her early UFC career. Nonetheless, her last two fights showed that she has much to improve on with her striking, as she was outstruck in each (44-61 and 55-87) with the latter ending in a KO.

This fight will most likely depend on where the majority of the fight takes place. If Pinheiro is able to drag hill to the ground consistently, she will likely have the edge. However, if Hill can stop Pinheiro’s takedowns, she will be able to pick Pinheiro apart with little resistance.

The numbers related to the takedown battle seem to favor Hill over Pinheiro. Hill, despite her training in kickboxing, sports a solid 75% takedown defense rate. It can be difficult to project how well this translates outside of the classic wrestling takedowns to judo throws and trips, but Pinheiro’s inefficiency with the takedown should give Hill some confidence coming into this fight. While Pinheiro lands a solid 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, she only does so on 40% efficiency.

Worse yet, in her last two fights, she was only able to land one takedown on 11 attempts. Her last opponent, Amanda Ribas, is difficult for everyone to takedown, as she sports an 85% takedown defense rate, but going 0/5 against Michelle Waterson-Gomez who holds a 70% takedown defense rate is a difficult look for a grappling-dependent fighter.

On the feet, the gap between the fighters is far wider. One red flag is that Pinheiro absorbs more significant strikes per minute (4.38) than she lands (3.89). She maintains a solid strike defense rate at 62%, but she’s inefficient landing her own offense at 41%. This opens her up to taking damage even if she’s generally successful at defending her opponent’s strikes.

Hill, on the other hand, lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 4.94. She defends herself well with a 61% strike defense rate, but her 50% rate in landing her own offense will be the biggest gulf between her and Pinheiro. Where Pinheiro may land a nice shot or two in an exchange, Hill will have an easier time landing combinations to put her ahead on the scorecards and draw herself closer to landing a knockout.

This fight will take place largely on the feet and will ride with Hill. I also like laddering the moneyline with a small money bet on Hill to win by KO/TKO/DQ.

Best UFC Pinheiro-Hill Bet & Pick: Hill Moneyline (-148)

---

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Adrian Yanez-Vinicius Salvador Pick

Yanez comes into this fight seemingly allergic to the Octagon canvas. In his eight UFC appearances, including his bout on the Contender Series, Yanez has never attempted a takedown. Even more remarkably, his opponents have failed to take him down, meaning that at no point in his eight fights has Yanez ever touched the ground. That streak is unlikely to change, as Salvador hardly attempts takedowns, landing only 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

What each fighter lacks in grappling output, they more than make up for in striking. Yanez lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute while Salvador lands 5.44. Their striking output is highlighted even more by the fact that neither is particularly efficient, with Yanez landing 39% of the time and Salvador landing 41%.

Given their high output and lack of efficiency, it’s no surprise that they absorb quite a bit of damage. Yanez absorbs 5.73 significant strikes per minute, despite his solid 57% defense rate. Salvador absorbs more than he lands at 6.05 significant strikes per minute on 49% efficiency.

The lack of grappling with such high striking output is tailormade for an early finish. This tracks with Yanez’s fight time, as he averages only six minutes and 17 seconds of fight time in his eight bouts. With such little time spent in the Octagon, it’s no surprise that six of his eight fights have gone under a round and a half.

Though none of Salvador’s fights went under, he takes too much damage for that record to be sustainable. Coming in as a +305 underdog, this fight is ripe for the first early stoppage in his UFC career. Even without any contribution from Salvador, six of their combined 11 fights went under 1.5 rounds (55%). This gives a nice edge on the implied probability of the line, which sits around 45%.

Best UFC Yanez-Salvador Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)

---

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Themba Gorimbo-Ramiz Brahimaj Pick

It’s shocking that Gorimbo is able to get down to Welterweight in the first place. Standing at 6’1” with a reach of 77 inches, Gorimbo has a nearly identical build to Sean Strickland and other Middleweights. With such long arms, Gorimbo has a decided reach advantage over most fighters in the class. Even Kamaru Usman, who only gives up an inch in height, gives up five inches in reach. This could prove difficult for Brahimaj who measures 5’10” with a 72-inch reach.

Neither fighter has a particularly high output on the feet, with Gorimbo landing 2.30 significant strikes per minute, and Brahimaj landing 2.47. Even with the lack of strikes, Gorimbo’s length has given him a clear advantage in the past, and that should be the case in this one too. Gorimbo looks to grapple more than strike, but even so he sports a stunning 60% rate on his significant strikes. His length also helps to keep his opponents on the outside, as he only absorbs 1.67 significant strikes per minute.

Gorimbo’s last opponent, Pete Rodrigues, faced the consequences of Gorimbo’s reach advantage, as he was caught flush while trying to close the distance, and was finished shortly thereafter. Brahimaj likely won’t have any better answers on the feet. He is the exact type of striker to avoid, as he is both inefficient (41%) and absorbs more damage on the feet than he lands (2.47-4.08).

Brahimaj usually has an advantage over his opponents when it comes to grappling to make up for the flaws he has on the feet, but that very well may not be the case against Gorimbo. Gorimbo attains more takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time (3.39) than Brahimaj (1.90).

Though Brahimaj is more efficient with his takedowns than Gorimbo (66%-45%), inefficiency in takedown attempts is less concerning than inefficiency striking. When a fighter is inefficient on the feet, it opens them up to counters or damage in exchanges. On the other hand, lack of efficiency in grappling doesn’t generally lead to the same level of damage and is mainly a concern for a grappler who can’t strike with their opponent.

Whatever advantage Brahimaj has from his efficiency on his own takedowns he gives up in his inefficiency defending the takedown. For a grappling-heavy fighter, only defending the takedown at a 58% clip is a concern. Some high-level jiu jitsu practitioners may strategically give up a takedown to get in a position to submit their opponent, but the only fight Brahimaj’s opponent attempted a takedown, he didn’t attempt a single submission.

Overall, Gorimbo’s length should give him an edge on the feet and in grappling exchanges. I am riding with Gorimbo’s moneyline while laddering it with the spread.

Best UFC Gorimbo–Brahimaj Bet & Pick: Gorimbo Moneyline (-148)

---

UFC Fight Night: Barbosa vs. Murphy | Khaos Williams-Carlston Harris Pick

Harris has a low output compared to the rest of the Welterweight division. Only landing 2.93 significant strikes per minute, his main source of offense comes through grappling, where he lands 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Williams has the exact opposite style, as he lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute without a single takedown in his UFC career.

An interesting wrinkle in this clash of styles is the fact that neither fighter is particularly efficient at their offensive strength. Williams only lands 39% of his significant strikes, while Harris only lands a successful takedown 29% of the time. One of the biggest factors that could decide the fight is which fighter will be more patient if their main threat is stuffed by the other.

Even taking Williams’ inefficiency on the feet into account, I still give him the edge. One major factor is Williams’ 80% takedown defense. Given Harris’ inefficiency in the takedown, it’s possible he isn’t able to get a single takedown in the entire fight.

If the fight takes place largely on the feet, Williams’ pressure, even if inefficient, will likely give Harris some problems. Though Harris only absorbs 2.44 significant strikes per minute and defends respectably at a 53% rate, we have yet to see what he looks like defending on the back foot. The takedown threat in itself is a safety net for many grapplers when defending on the feet, but if that threat is largely nullified, their defensive numbers go down.

Williams’ inefficiency on the feet hasn’t translated to him taking the same amount of damage that other high-output low-efficiency strikers take. Williams absorbs 5.33 significant strikes per minute, which is less than he lands. If he lands more efficiently than average in this fight, Harris will be in real danger of the KO.

In all, I like Williams given his takedown defense against Harris’ inefficient grappling. If the fight stays on the feet throughout, I don’t see Harris being able to come out with a victory.

Best UFC Williams-Harris Bet & Pick: Williams Moneyline (-130)

---

UFC Fight Night: Edson Barbosa vs. Lerone Murphy Pick

It’s hard to believe that Barbosa has fought in the UFC since 2010. At 38 years old, he’s one of the oldest fighters on the roster. Though older fighters have picked up wins, the amount of mileage he has on his body means any fight could be his last competing at a high level. It looked like his career was close to being finished when he dropped seven of 10 fights over a span of four years, but he bounced back with two wins in a row against Billy Quarantillo and Sodiq Yusuff, both of whom are solid prospects.

Nonetheless, the skid Barbosa went on should concern any bettor, as time doesn’t march in reverse. Plainly speaking, Barbosa is not the fighter he was 10 years ago. That doesn’t mean he has nothing going for him. He’s still a strong striker, though his recent run has skewed the numbers such that he now takes more damage than he doles out.

Murphy can’t overlook Barbosa on the feet, but he employs such a measured approach, I don’t see Barbosa having many openings to capitalize on. Murphy lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute compared to the 2.40 strikes he absorbs. Both his striking efficiency (50%) and defensive efficiency (56%) are solid.

In his last fight against Josh Culibao, Murphy showed off a more well-rounded arsenal than we’ve seen in his past fights. As in most of his fights, Murphy won the striking battle, but he also stuffed Culibao’s two takedown attempts while landing three of his own and attempting two submissions on the way to a comfortable decision that had him winning by 11 points combined on the three judges’ scorecards.

While it can be easy to write this performance off as a fluke and assume that Murphy will continue to predominantly remain on the feet, it is just as possible that this is something he’s worked on in his short time in the UFC and could be a more regular approach. After all, he lands 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, so he’s not completely stand-up dependent.

One of Murphy’s most glaring weaknesses is his takedown defense. He only stuffs 46% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. In his closest decisions, the reason for it being so close was primarily his opponents’ takedowns. However, this isn’t a hole Barbosa is well-suited to exploit. He only lands 0.48 takedowns in 15 minutes of fight time. While he had three in his last bout, it was over a five-round decision. Even if he lands a few takedowns, it’s unlikely to tip the balance of the fight if the striking numbers and damage is so lopsided.

While it would be great to see Barbosa continue his run, Murphy is too solid on the feet for him to find many openings.

Best UFC Barbosa-Murphy Bet & Pick: Murphy Moneyline (-148)