UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer Odds & Picks: Bets for Rodolfo Vieria, Andre Fili & More

As the Super Bowl is the next day, UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer probably won’t get much attention. Nonetheless, these fight cards offer insight into the middle brass of the UFC’s divisions, and as such, there is still plenty of worthwhile action to look out for. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer Odds & Picks: Bets for Rodolfo Vieria, Andre Fili & More

Prelim Spotlight: Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Pick

Giles has the edge in terms of experience, but his propensity for succumbing to finishes, paired with his demonstrated knockout power, makes this a good spot to buy the under.

Giles maintains a slow pace in the octagon, landing only 2.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.09. This will be a difficult style to maintain against Prates’ aggression. In his first bout in the UFC, Prates landed 4.81 significant strikes per minute at a stunning 63% rate. While Giles is a more experienced fighter and will be tougher to land on, Prates has precision and power in spades. However, his aggression will open him up to counters from Giles, who has amassed three knockouts in his UFC career.

All of Giles’ five UFC losses came by finish, a fact the oddsmakers haven’t overlooked. The line for Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ sits at -110. All other outcomes have odds of +450 or longer. Nonetheless, the line for the under 1.5 sits at +105 with an implied probability of around 48%.

We’re getting a slight edge on this line, particularly when considering that three of Giles’ five losses came before the halfway mark of the second round. With odds for the under 2.5 sitting at -200, the heavy expectation is that this fight will end before the final bell.

Each of these fighters can stop the fight in a moment. Riding with the under seems to be the safest bet here, particularly with the lack of data we have on Prates’ ability against UFC-caliber opponents.

Best UFC Giles-Prates Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +100 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan Pick

Given Vieira’s pressure with takedowns, and Petrosyan’s difficulties defending, Vieira will likely have plenty of opportunity to procure a submission as he has done so often in his career.

A disparity between fighting styles defines this bout. Petrosyan has a Muay Thai background and looks to wear his opponents down through technical striking. In his time in the UFC, Petrosyan has gone to decision in each of his four fights, winning three of them. While he maintains heavy pressure on the feet, landing 5.97 significant strikes per minute, he virtually never engages in grappling, only procuring 0.23 takedowns in fifteen minutes of fight time.

Don’t expect that to change in this fight, as Vieira is dangerous on the ground. He boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and it shows in his MMA career, with eight of his eleven bouts ending in a submission victory. His only other victory came by knockout, and his two losses came via decision and submission. With such prowess on the ground, Vieira attempts takedowns at a very high rate. He takes his opponents down 3.7 times per 15 minutes, but because he has only secured a takedown 25% of the time, he averages about 14.8 takedown attempts per fight.

Vieira’s grappling-heavy style gives him an advantage over Petrosyan, who struggles to defend takedowns. In Petrosyan’s only UFC loss, he was taken down four times and controlled for over 10 of the 15 minutes of fight time. He only defends the takedown at a 36% rate and was taken down more than once in four of his five fights, including his fight in Dana White’s Contender Series. The only fight in which he wasn’t taken down came against Christian Leroy Duncan, who has not even attempted a takedown in his UFC career.

Given the holes in Petrosyan’s game, Vieira should have plenty of opportunities to secure a submission. As nearly all of his wins have come by submission, the oddsmakers seem to have overvalued the potential he wins by knockout or decision when setting his line. The odds for Vieira to win by submission sit at only +165, good for an implied probability of 37%, which is a line well worth riding.

Best UFC Vieira-Petrosyan Bet & Pick: Vieira by Submission +165 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers Pick

Johnson is on an unfortunate streak of late. He comes into this fight winning only four of his previous 15 matches, which dates back to 2015. While the beginning of this nearly decades-long skid saw Johnson lose to some of the best fighters in the world, including Khabib Nurmagomedov, Beneil Dariush and Justin Gaethje, the caliber of opponents he fought in his most recent losses is not on that same level. He can still show flashes of the top-level fighter he began his career as, but there is nothing in his recent work that indicates he should be favored against anybody.

Flowers is a dangerous opponent with incredible stopping power. Of his 12 professional wins, eight have come by knockout. He applies heavy pressure in his striking, landing 4.19 significant strikes per minute, which could give Johnson trouble, especially if Flowers can land a heavy one. All it takes for Flowers to stop the fight is one opening, so Johnson will need to be buttoned up throughout the entire fight just to avoid getting finished.

Johnson’s losses, even lately, have not consistently come via knockout, but his last fight against Diego Ferreira showed he can still certainly be cracked. In all, three of his losses have been by KO, with most of the remaining being decisions.

Flowers’ opponents found most of their success by taking advantage of his grappling. Out of his six professional losses, five have come by submission. However, Johnson probably can’t exploit that weakness. Over his UFC career, Johnson averages 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Even more astounding is that he only ever attempted one submission in his 28 UFC fights, which was a desperate attempt against Khabib Nurmagomedov in a fight he would go on to lose by submission. He still has yet to secure a submission victory in his 41-fight professional career.

While Flowers looked shaky in his UFC debut, his opponent, Jake Matthews, is a difficult, experienced fighter who would be tough for any first-time fighter to take on. Given Johnson’s form of late, I suspect this will be a sizable step down in competition for Flowers relative to his last fight. Since Johnson hasn’t been able to consistently put wins together over an almost 10-year span, Flowers is the sharper side here.

Best UFC Johnson-Flowers Bet & Pick: Darrius Flowers ML +115 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues Pick

Tavares got himself a much-needed win in his last bout against the slumping former middleweight champion, Chris Weidman. Despite losing some fights before that one, just three fights ago, he became the first person to take the current division champ, Dricus Du Plessis, to the scorecards. Du Plessis narrowly won that one by 29-28. Nonetheless, it was still an impressive performance against a fighter that even the top contenders haven’t found an answer for.

The shocking thing about Tavares is that the Du Plessis fight isn’t even an outlier when it comes to his losses. Out of his eight losses, three came to current or former middleweight champions: Du Plessis, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, each of whom are still currently ranked in the top five of the division. Another loss came to Yoel Romero, who fought for the middleweight belt multiple times in his career. I’m not arguing that Tavares is an elite fighter who can contend with champions at this point in his career, but Rodrigues is a far cry from the caliber of these fighters.

Part of Tavares’ success stems from his defensive ability. He only absorbs 3.03 significant strikes per minute and defends the takedown at an eye-popping 82% rate. This tendency has helped him limit damage taken, only getting finished four times out of his 23 fights. To ride with Rodrigues as such a substantial favorite would essentially be placing him in the upper echelon of contenders. Outside of the elite group of fighters in the middleweight division, Tavares has fared well, and I expect that to continue on Saturday.

Best UFC Tavares-Rodrigues Bet & Pick: Brad Tavares ML +190 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Robert Bryczek-Ihor Potieria Pick

Given Potieria’s relative advantage in terms of experience and his performance in promotions outside of the UFC, I would have him as the slight favorite. The books have him as an underdog. For that reason, riding him in the plus money is the only play I would make.

One of the benefits of examining a fighter who has an extensive career in the UFC is that their statistics tend to carry more weight than those with shorter resumes. When it comes to Bryczek, there is little to no data to go off of when it comes to his efficiency, his output or his overall success. What little tape there is of him reveals him to be a fluid and aggressive striker with a lot of power. However, going off of the eye test isn’t necessarily a great idea when it comes to betting on the UFC. Looks can be deceiving, especially when a fighter leaps up in competition.

His counterpart in this fight, Potieria, is a perfect case study as to why I weigh a fighter’s performance in the UFC much more than I do their performance outside of the league. Fighting in the UFC is hard, usually much harder than fighting in other organizations. The only exceptions I make are for ONE or Bellator, which have a lot of fighters on their roster of UFC caliber.

Before entering the UFC, Potieria was on a 14-fight winning streak with many first-round victories. Things looked even better when he won his first fight in Dana White’s Contender Series, which earned him a full UFC contract. However, since entering the UFC, he has struggled, going 1-3 with three KO defeats. However, his lone victory was an impressive one against the legendary Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Predicting how Bryczek will do in the UFC is made even more tricky by his struggles in Oktagon, in which he went 4-3. While he comes into this fight on a five-fight winning streak, it’s difficult to determine how meaningful that is, if at all.

With Potieria’s success in his professional fights outside of the UFC compared to Bryczek’s struggles — and Potieria’s victory over a legend (albeit one well past his prime) — I would have given him the slight edge. Since he is an underdog, that’s the only play I advise for this one.

Best UFC Bryczek-Potieria Bet & Pick: Ihor Potieria ML +130 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Dan Ige-Andre Fili Pick

An old adage in fighting is to never leave the fight in the hands of the judges. This couldn’t be truer for Ige, who, despite his solid 9-6 record in the UFC, holds a losing record (5-6) in fights that end in a decision. For his entire professional career, Ige sits at 7-7 in decisions. This trend is more than just bad luck — rather, it’s one of the downsides of his fighting style. Ige struggles with takedown defense, as he only successfully defends at a 55% rate. This has allowed fighters like Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev to get the best of him on the cards by racking up control time.

In fights that aren’t grappling-heavy, Ige tends to do little to separate himself from his opponents while on the feet. Looking at the striking numbers of his decisions, both wins and losses, he tends to either be comfortably outstruck or about even. In his 11 decisions, he has only outlanded his opponents by five or more significant strikes three times. Of those three, he was knocked down and almost finished in his loss against Josh Emmett, and he was taken down three times in another that ended in a close split-decision victory for him. These margins are too thin to dependably ride with Ige as the favorite in most decisions.

Fili, on the other hand, has a solid 7-4 record in decisions, with many of his victories coming from his ability to procure takedowns and control time while staying about even on the feet. Fili is likely going to exploit the holes in Ige’s takedown defense. He already procures a solid 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which could certainly tip the balance of a decision that is likely to be close to begin with.

Sitting at a +140 underdog, bettors should look to ride with Fili if this fight goes to the cards. While Ige and Fili have both won by knockout multiple times, this one will more than likely get decided by the judges.

Best UFC Ige-Fili Bet & Pick: Andre Fili ML +140 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer | Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer Pick

On the other hand, Pyfer entered the UFC on a tear, with three straight wins since his time in the Dana White’s Contender Series, all coming early in the fight. With each fighter having a demonstrated ability to end the fight on a moment’s notice, laddering the under seems to produce the largest edge for this one.

In Pyfer’s 14 professional MMA fights, it’s unbelievable that he went to the scorecards only once: his second fight. Outside of that bout, he hasn’t even gotten to the third round in the remaining 13. His unique balance of knockout power and grappling ability gives his opponents very few weaknesses to exploit. This has allowed him to amass an impressive eight knockouts and three submissions in his professional career, and that pace hasn’t slowed down since he entered the UFC.

However, Hermansson is no slouch, and he boasts a similar combination of grappling and striking that has allowed him to procure six finishes in his 10 UFC victories, with three coming by knockout and three coming by submission. His high output of 5.13 significant strikes landed per minute, combined with 1.66 takedowns per 15, is tailor-made to carve stronger opponents down and take out lower-ranked opponents early. However, Hermansson also opens himself up with his pressure and has succumbed to three knockouts and one submission.

While Hermansson averages longer fights than Pyfer, banking on a decision isn’t a good strategy in this one. In Hermansson’s 16 UFC fights, he has only gone to the cards six times (37.5%). This rate is slightly higher than what he has recorded in his professional career with only nine of his 31 fights reaching the final bell (29%). His finishes come later than Pyfer’s, but eight of his 16 UFC bouts ended before the halfway mark of the second round, with two more ending before the halfway mark of the third.

Combined, 13 of the fighters’ 21 fights in the octagon ended before the halfway mark of the second (61.9%), and 15 ended before the halfway mark of the third (71%). These aren’t outliers when taking into account their full professional careers: 27 of their 45 combined professional fights ended in under 7:30 minutes (60%) and 29 of them didn’t make it past 12:30 minutes (64%).

Overall, there is value in playing the under for both the 1.5 and 2.5, as their implied probabilities sit at around 45% and 60%, respectively. For bettors wanting a long-shot bet, a small amount on the under 0.5 at +450 is a decent play given these fighters’ propensities to finish fights early.

Best UFC Hermansson-Pyfer Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +120 & Under 2.5 Rounds -160 at DraftKings

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