After UFC 300 paid off in every way imaginable, it was nice to have a week to let it sink in. It may be hard to get excited for another APEX card like UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez, but there is still plenty to look forward to in this one. In the main event, an impressive performance could launch either fighter into a title eliminator — if not a title fight itself. Further down the card, we have plenty of newcomers looking to make a name for themselves in their respective divisions. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and our betting model’s top picks!
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez Odds & Picks: Bets for Silva, Perez & More
Prelim Spotlight: UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Rani Yahya-Victor Henry Pick
Yahya–Henry Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Yahya: +300 | Henry: -460
Yahya +3.5: +150 | Henry -3.5: -200
Over 2.5: -140 | Under 2.5: +110
Yahya–Henry Preview & Pick
For the final prelim bout of the night, bettors should expect a longer effort for both fighters in what is expected to be a lopsided win for Victor Henry (23-6) over Rani Yahya (28-11-1). I have the over 2.5 rounds in this one, which I am laddering with the fight to go the distance.
This is one of the more lopsided moneylines for the night. With Henry trading as a -460 favorite, bookmakers give him an implied probability of around 82% to win. Although he lands an absurd 8.3 significant strikes per minute, each of his three decisive fights (excluding a no-contest for a low blow) went to the cards.
Yahya comes into this fight with essentially just one way to finish it: by submission. He only lands 1.6 significant strikes per minute and has never scored a knockout in his 26 UFC fights (including WEC fights before the merger). Henry should be able to avoid finding himself in danger of getting submitted, as he defends the takedown at a 78% clip which compares favorably to Yahya’s 33% success rate on his attempted takedowns.
Further, Henry has yet to attempt a takedown, which means that Yahya won’t be able to pull guard and force Henry into danger of falling into a submission from the top or getting reversed into a worse position. This bodes well for the over, as Yahya’s chances of finishing the fight before the bell will likely be neutralized.
Better for the over is that Yahya’s losses generally draw out longer than his wins. Of his eight losses, six went over 2.5 rounds (75%). Combined with Henry’s wins, the over has hit eight out of 10 times (80%). Even weighting for the implied probability that Henry wins, the chances the fight goes over sits around 66%, well clear of the 58% implied probability for the over.
Even taking their combined fights, the over hit in 18 of 29 bouts (62%). Put simply, both Henry and Yahya have a high tendency to go deep into fights. Though Yahya’s average fight time clocks in under 10 minutes, it’s skewed heavily by first-round submissions. His median fight time sits at 14 minutes and 19 seconds, which reflects the propensity for his fights to drag into the later rounds.
Best UFC Yahya-Henry Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -140 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Tim Means-Uros Medic Pick
Means–Medic Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Means: +230 | Medic: -330
Means +3.5: +150 | Medic -3.5: -200
Over 1.5: -145 | Under 1.5: +114
Means–Medic Preview & Pick
In the first fight on the main card, Tim Means (33-15-1) looks to silence some of the hype surrounding Uros Medic (9-2). The odds seemingly anticipate a quick Medic victory, which seems somewhat unjustified due to each fighter’s average length of fight. I’m playing the over in this one.
On average, Means’ fights go longer than Medic’s. Means has an average fight time of 10:08 over his 28 UFC bouts, while Medic has an average fight time of 6:18. While an average Medic fight would hit the under 1.5 rounds if the length holds true, the odds aren’t that simple.
The implied probability the fight goes under 1.5 rounds sits at 46.7%. Looking only at Medic’s fights, three of six went under 1.5 rounds, which seems to give us a slight edge for the under. Even looking at just his wins, two of four went under, yielding the same slight edge.
However, with Means’ fights usually lasting longer, the under being set near a pick‘em seems to anticipate a Medic victory. This is supported by the -360 line in favor of Medic. If this line is to be believed, Medic has around a 77% chance of coming away with the victory. Multiplying this by the 50% that his victories went under yields a 38.5% chance he wins in the first round and a half.
What’s worse for this line is that Means doesn’t go down easy. In his 15 UFC losses, he was finished in under 1.5 rounds only four times (26%). Combining Means’ losses with Medic’s wins, only six of 19 fights went under 1.5 rounds (32%).
On the flip side, Means is relatively efficient at finishing his opponents. Six of his 13 victories came under 1.5 rounds (46%). However, given the implied probability he wins sits at just 23%, weighting the odds to account for this yields an 11% chance this outcome happens. Combining Medic’s losses, the odds the under hits in a Means win is 50%.
In total, only 13 of their combined 34 fights went under (38%). That the odds for the under increase with a Means win and decrease with a Means loss is good for the over, given the expectation that Medic wins handily.
Best UFC Means-Medic Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -145 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Jonathan Pearce-David Onama Pick
Pearce-Onama Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Pearce: -150 | Onama: +120
Pearce -3.5: +105 | Onama +3.5: -140
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Pearce–Onama Preview & Pick
Jonathan Pearce (14-5) looks to get back to his winning ways when he takes on David Onama (11-2). Pearce’s high-output grappling should give Onama fits. I expect Onama to spend much of this fight on his back in a lopsided win for Pearce.
Pearce’s nickname of JSP makes sense. He has shown a consistent ability to drag his opponents to the ground and dominate them. If he could get more consistent on the feet, become a Canadian citizen and cement himself firmly in the GOAT conversation, the homage to GSP will be even more clear.
Jokes aside, Pearce has issues standing and striking with many opponents. This was rarely an issue, as his dominant wrestling helped him take the fight to the ground at will, but it remains a lingering concern that opponents can look to exploit.
I don’t think Onama will have much chance to exploit this weakness. He only defends the takedown at 45%. When compared to Pearce’s 5.29 takedowns per 15 at 53% efficiency, Onama will have to make huge leaps in his takedown defense to even attempt to take Pearce out on the feet.
Unfortunately, Onama hasn’t shown much progress in his takedown defense in three years. His UFC debut saw him taken down eight times in a loss. The next two fights came against fighters who land zero and 0.24 takedowns per minute, so grappling wasn’t an issue. In his last two fights, Onama conceded three takedowns on four attempts in a loss to Nate Landwehr, who only lands one takedown per 15, along with another two takedowns on four attempts in a bounce-back win against Gabrial Santos.
Even if Onama can hold up in takedown defense for longer than expected, Pearce’s relentless pressure will almost certainly crack Onama’s defense at some point. From there, he’ll be able to land heavy shots from the top to make up for any disparity Onama can establish on the feet and do serious damage to potentially end the fight.
Pearce is a safe bet at the -150 line, but for those who want slightly longer odds, the spread wouldn’t be a bad bet with which to ladder.
Best UFC Pearce-Onama Bet & Pick: Pearce ML -150 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Austen Lane-Jhonata Diniz Pick
Lane–Diniz Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Lane: +240 | Diniz: -350
Lane +3.5: +210 | Diniz -3.5: -295
Over 1.5: +200 | Under 1.5: -270
Lane–Diniz Preview & Pick
The next fight on the card comes between Heavyweights Austen Lane (12-4) and Jhonata Diniz (6-0). Diniz has done well in his transition from his professional kickboxing career. With such a lopsided line, both for the total and the fight line — along with a lack of data on both fighters, I don’t perceive a substantial enough edge to ride with any here.
Diniz put together an impressive kickboxing record by going 22-7 in his professional career. However, when he got to Glory, which is considered one of the most elite kickboxing promotions, he only managed to go 2-2 before returning to lower-level promotions. To get to Glory and to win multiple fights is certainly impressive, but the worry here is that he can’t contend on an elite level in the way some may anticipate.
This is a particular concern as he enters his official UFC debut as a -360 favorite. He impressed on the Contender Series, landing an impressive knockout. Nonetheless, he was too brazen in his approach for my liking. He landed 25 significant strikes compared to his opponent, who landed 24. Worse yet, his opponent landed 63% of his strikes versus Diniz’s 42%.
It’s one thing to get a quick knockout in the Contender Series and a completely different thing to translate that into the UFC. The problem is, I don’t know if Lane is the person to take advantage of the line being so lopsided.
To his credit, he showed solid ground skills in the Contender Series, reversing the position before ending the fight via TKO. I’m disregarding his first crack at the Contender Series against Greg Hardy, as that was nearly six years ago. However, in his UFC debut against Justin Tafa, he lasted less than two minutes before getting knocked out. Perhaps he learned some valuable lessons from that debut that will help him for this one, but it’s too hard to tell if that’s the case.
Overall, in their combined five fights in the Octagon, Lane and Diniz have logged only 10 minutes. There’s simply not enough time or tape to determine how this one will shake out. My propensity to bet the underdog as well as to take the more experienced fighter has my gut telling me Lane will pull this one out, so for bettors that feel the need to bet on this one, I would suggest doing so — but the better play would be to sit this one out.
Best UFC Lane-Diniz Bet & Pick: Lane ML +240 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Ariane Lipski-Karine Silva Pick
Lipski–Silva Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight
Lipski: +130 | Silva: -165
Lipski +3.5: -115 | Silva -3.5: -115
Over 2.5: +124 | Under 2.5: -160
Lipski–Silva Preview & Pick
Both Ariane Lipski (17-8) and Karine Silva (17-4) come into this fight on nice winning streaks. I usually like to ride with the underdog, but I think Silva’s grappling is far too dangerous to side with Lipski here.
Lipski’s striking numbers are something of a roller coaster. She either gets dominated on the feet or outstrikes her opponents comfortably. By way of example, her striking numbers compared to her opponents’ in her recent fights are: 64-31, 66-85, 101-49, 4-20, 87-36, 11-29, and 15-39. In her eleven UFC fights, the delta between strikes has only been less than 10 once, which was a first-round submission less than two minutes into the fight.
This variance has the interesting result of making it appear as though she lands the same amount of significant strikes per minute (4.27) as she absorbs (4.24), which is almost never the case. The wide disparity in striking makes her hard to evaluate.
Nonetheless, I expect Silva to avoid this by taking her down and making her life miserable on the ground. All four of Silva’s fights ended by submission. Yet what sets her apart from other submission specialists is her pressure in attaining the takedown.
Many submission specialists from a BJJ background pull guard to get to the ground, but Silva forces her opponents there. With a 60% success rate, Silva lands 2.45 takedowns per 15.
Lipski’s takedown defense is certainly solid, stuffing her opponents’ attempts 78% of the time. Yet she only faced two fighters who averaged better than one takedown per 15 and averaged 40% or better on takedowns. In those fights, she was 1-1 and allowed two takedowns in the victorious effort.
In short, Lipski hasn’t faced a grappler as pressure-heavy and technical as Silva. I see this one going to the ground and staying there until either the bell or until Lipski is submitted.
Best UFC Lipski-Silva Bet & Pick: Silva ML -165 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Ryan Spann-Bogdan Guskov Pick
Spann–Guskov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Spann: -185 | Guskov: +140
Spann -3.5: -155 | Guskov +3.5: +120
Over 1.5: +210 | Under 1.5: -280
Spann–Guskov Preview & Pick
The night’s penultimate fight matches up veteran Ryan Spann (21-9) with newcomer Bogdan Guskov (15-3). Despite Guskov’s impressive knockout in his last fight, he gets hit too much for my liking. I see him getting finished with a devastating knockout against a gatekeeper for the higher reaches of the division.
Neither Spann nor Guskov seem to favor going to the cards. Guskov came into the UFC and was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir in his first fight before knocking out Zac Pauga in his second. While it was a nice win to get his career kick-started, Zac Pauga is currently ranked 120th in the Light Heavyweight division, per Fight Matrix. His loss to Oezdemir is justifiable as Oezdemir is ranked No. 15, but Spann isn’t far behind at No. 18.
Even against Pauga, Guskov ate 17 significant strikes while only landing 10 of his own. Even more concerning is that Pauga landed 65% of these strikes. Oezdemir landed 56% of his 46 significant strikes to Guskov while only absorbing eight in return.
Over his first two fights in the UFC, Guskov landed only 2.43 significant strikes per minute at a 33% clip while absorbing 5.81 in return. The sample size is certainly small, but still, these numbers are startling. Against a fighter like Spann, Guskov will pay if he can’t get a quick knockout. Further, Guskov’s last fight came less than two months ago, so there isn’t much time for him to improve substantially on the feet.
Spann has shown great power in the past. Of his eight UFC wins, three came by knockout (38%). Two came against Dominick Reyes and Minotauro Nogueira. While these may not be the most impressive knockout wins given the career arcs of the opposing fighter, they both have better strike defense than Guskov even at their worst.
With the implied probability sitting at around 33% that Spann wins by knockout, there is a nice edge to exploit if Guskov shows little improvement on the feet.
Best UFC Spann-Guskov Bet & Pick: Spann to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +200 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez | Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez Pick
Nicolau–Perez Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Nicolau: -185 | Perez: +140
Nicolau -5.5: -105 | Perez +5.5: -125
Over 4.5: +105 | Under 4.5: -145
Nicolau–Perez Preview & Pick
The main event pairs two top-level grapplers as Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) sets to square off against Alex Perez (24-8). Despite being a comfortable favorite, Nicolau’s history of going to razor-thin decisions gives an edge to Perez, who looks to break a three-fight skid.
Perez has had a tough run in his past few fights. He fought for the belt against Deiveson Figueiredo and was submitted. In his next fight, he took on the current champ and was submitted again. Instead of getting a bounce-back fight, he was given undefeated prospect Muhammad Mokaev and was edged out in a close decision.
It’s hard to say that Nicolau isn’t on the same level as Mokaev, but Perez can certainly be forgiven for losing to Figgy and Pantoja, as very few fighters in the UFC have been able to beat either. Even in a loss, Perez came away stuffing eighteen of Mokaev’s takedown attempts and became only the second fighter in the UFC to avoid succumbing to a submission against him.
This is important because Nicolau’s game is predicated on the takedown. In his nine UFC bouts, he has failed to get a single takedown in four. In those four, he went 2-2, with one win coming by split decision and one coming in a 29-28 decision swung by a knockdown. While the two losses came by quick knockouts where he had little time to get a takedown, the wins concern me more.
In the five fights in which he has at least one takedown, he went 5-0. Of the three decision victories, two were razor-thin, with the takedowns likely swinging the balance of the fight. These are still impressive victories, but a fighter that can neutralize Nicolau’s grappling has a great chance of edging him out on the scorecards.
Outside of the Mokaev fight, Perez has solid takedown defense. He stuffs 82% of his opponent’s takedown defense, which could frustrate Nicolau’s game plan. On the feet, Nicolau is too selective to win a decision comfortably. He only lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14. Nicolau was outstruck by his opponents in five of his nine UFC bouts. While he won three of these by decision, he can’t depend on losing the striking battle and taking the fight, particularly as a -185 favorite.
Perez, on the other hand, displays controlled aggression in his fights. He lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14, for a delta of almost one significant strike per minute. If this holds, the disparity in a five-round fight would be 25 significant strikes overall, which would be enough to lead to a comfortable decision victory, all else equal.
Without much of a chance for a Nicolau finish, I like Perez.
Best UFC Nicolau-Perez Bet & Pick: Perez ML +140 at DraftKings
