The UFC heads to Nashville for UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen-Rob Font. This stacked card also features Jessica Andrade against Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event. Ahead of the UFC Fight Night card, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Sandhagen-Font card.
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UFC Fight Night Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Ode’ Osbourne vs. Assu Almabaev Odds
Ode’ Osbourne: +130 | Assu Almabaev: -150
In the men’s flyweight division, Ode’ Osbourne takes on Assu Almabaev as a +130 underdog. Osbourne is 4-3 in the UFC after an additional win on Dana White’s Contender Series. He most recently defeated Charles Johnson via split decision in February. On the other side, Almabaev makes his UFC debut after defeating Kenneth Maningat via submission back in November.
Osbourne has a wrestling background. He averages 1.61 takedowns per bout and 27% accuracy. Osbourne also defends them at 72%. He lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.63. His 46% striking defense leaves plenty to be desired, and he has already been knocked out twice. While well rounded, Osbourne can be defeated by specialists on the feet and on the ground. He has a professional 12-5 record with five knockouts and four submission wins.
Almabaev makes his UFC debut at 29 years of age with a 17-2 professional record. He has three knockouts and eight submission wins, and he has been finished just one time. That came against current UFC fighter Tagir Ulanbekov back in 2017. Almabaev appears to have a fairly well-rounded game and trains with Shavkat Rakhmonov. He fought some decent competition on the regional scene as well, including former UFC fighter Zach Makovsky in his second-most recent bout.
Osborne does not have the best level of competition within the UFC. Most of his wins in the promotion came against the back end of the roster. With Almabaev fighting legitimate opponents on the regional scene and possessing a well-rounded skill set, he is worth a look at -150.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Sean Woodson vs. Dennis Buzukja Odds
Sean Woodson: -190 | Dennis Buzukja: +170
In the men’s featherweight division, Sean Woodson takes on late replacement Dennis Buzukja as a -190 favorite. Woodson has a 3-1-1 UFC record. Last time out, Woodson fought to a draw against Luis Saldana after Saldana received a point deduction for an illegal knee. On the other side, Buzukja has won seven straight fights after previously fighting on the Contender Series a pair of times.
Woodson is a Contender Series alum who is a pure striker, and he will have an eight-inch reach advantage over Buzukja. Woodson lands 5.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.26 strikes. Woodson isn’t much of a threat on the mat, but he defends takedowns at an 82% clip. Woodson has a 9-1 overall record in his career, with his only loss coming via submission to Julian Erosa. Last time out, Woodson took a lot of damage on the feet and suffered two knockdowns before the illegal knee from Saldana resulted in a pause in the action. Without the illegal knee, Woodson was dangerously close to being finished.
Buzukja fought to two decisions on the Contender Series and finished with a 1-1 record. He dropped his first appearance to Melsik Baghdasaryan before defeating Kaleio Romero. With decisions not scoring well in the eyes of Dana White, the UFC initially passed on Buzukja, but he has a well-rounded skill set. He lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.7. Most of that negative differential comes from his bout against Baghdasaryan. On the mat, he averages 1.5 takedowns while defending them at 92%. Buzukja was controlled by Romero for over eight minutes in his last fight despite defending 11 of 12 takedown attempts. Buzukja has largely fought questionable competition on the regional scene, but he trains with fighters like Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili and Matt Frevola.
In what should largely play out as a standup affair, Woodson has significantly more experience at this point. Woodson also has a considerable size advantage. Saldana matched up much better against Woodson from a size perspective when compared with Buzukja. At -190 overall, he should be able to get the job done against the late replacement.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Cody Durden vs. Jake Hadley Odds
Cody Durden: +140 | Jake Hadley: -165
Staying in the men’s flyweight division, Jake Hadley takes on Cody Durden as a -165 favorite. Hadley enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak. He most recently defeated Malcolm Gordon via knockout back in March. Similarly, Durden has now won three straight fights, most recently defeating Charles Johnson via decision in April.
Hadley is 10-1 with five submissions and three knockouts in his career. Hadley has a fairly well-rounded game. On the feet, he lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.52. On the mat, he averages 0.47 takedowns per bout, but he only defends them at 37%. He will sometimes accept takedowns in order to work his submission game. With that said, he has also been controlled on the mat by superior wrestlers. Allan Nascimento controlled him for over nine minutes in his UFC debut.
On the other side, Durden comes from a wrestling background, evidenced by his 5.73 takedown average per bout. Durden has 15 takedowns combined in his last two fights. He also defends them at 71% and generally has a wrestling advantage over his opponents. On the feet, he lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.21. With a 15-4-1 professional record, Durden has six knockouts and five submissions on his resume. It should be noted that Durden has been submitted three times, so he needs to be careful with the submission game of Hadley.
Neither fighter has a particularly impressive resume or strength of schedule at this point. This is a lower-level fight in the division, so taking a shot with the underdog makes sense. Hadley has been outwrestled before, and as long as Durden avoids the submission attempts, he can grab a win.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Jeremiah Wells vs. Carlston Harris Odds
Jeremiah Wells: -165 | Carlston Harris: +140
Moving to the men’s welterweight division, Jeremiah Wells takes on Carlston Harris as a -165 favorite. Wells has now fought four times in the UFC and earned a perfect 4-0 record in that span. He most recently defeated Matthew Semelsberger via split decision in April. Similarly, Harris has a 3-1 record. His lone loss came against Shavkat Rakhmonov, and he followed up that loss with a unanimous decision win over Jared Gooden in March.
Wells comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. Wells also has decent wrestling, landing 3.93 takedowns per bout and 38% accuracy. He defends them at 100% and generally has a grappling advantage over opponents. On the feet, Wells lands 2.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.46. Wells has a 12-2-1 record, featuring five knockouts and four submissions. He has never been finished.
Harris comes primarily from a striking background, but he has developed a well-rounded game. On the feet, he lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.88. On the ground, he averages 3.04 takedowns per bout. He defends them at 75% and has only been taken down by Rakhmonov. Even then, Rakhmonov failed to control Harris on the mat, which should make for some excellent grappling exchanges in this fight. However, that fight ended in the first, so Rakhmonov may have had more success later in the fight. Harris is 18-5 with five knockouts and submissions apiece in his career.
This is a very tough fight to handicap, as neither fighter has a particularly strong strength of schedule. Harris failed in his step up against Rakhmonov, while Wells fared a little better against the middle tier of the division. Ultimately, the wrestling of Wells should be a difference maker. While Harris has defended takedowns well in the past, he is still relatively unproven on the ground in the UFC. As long as Wells can avoid the big shots of, he should have an easier time winning rounds.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Kyler Phillips vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds
Kyler Phillips: -175 | Raoni Barcelos: +150
Jumping to the men’s bantamweight division, Raoni Barcelos faces Kyler Phillips as a +150 underdog. After a blazing 5-0 start in the UFC, Barcelos is now 1-3 in his last four fights. He most recently lost to Umar Nurmagomedov via knockout back in January. Phillips will be making his first UFC appearance since February of 2022, where he submitted Marcelo Rojo. Phillips did serve a sixth-month suspension for a positive ostarine test, but he is eligible to fight as of July 22nd.
Barcelos fights with an all-action style. He has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, averaging 1.63 takedowns per bout while defending them at 93%. On the feet, Barcelos is not afraid to brawl. He averages 5.69 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.06. Barcelos does have a solid 61% striking defense, but he has been outstruck in three of his last four fights. He is 17-4 with eight knockouts and two submission wins.
Phillips has a 10-2 professional record, featuring five knockouts and two submissions. Interestingly, he has an elite win over Song Yadong, but he lost to Raulian Paiva in his next fight. Phillips has a well-rounded game, landing 3.32 takedowns per bout and 69% defense. He also averages 5.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.43. Phillips’ main concern in the Octagon is his cardio. He will push a pace and has the skills to defeat most of the division if he does not tire out in the process.
Phillips has the best win between these two, but Barcelos has the superior body of work. With that said, Barcelos may have lost a step in his advanced age, which should give an additional edge to Phillips. It is difficult to know which version of Phillips will enter the cage, but as long as he is motivated, Phillips should be able to edge Barcelos in this fight.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson Odds
Billy Quarantillo: -175 | Damon Jackson: +150
In the featured prelim of the night, Billy Quarantillo faces off against Damon Jackson as a -175 favorite. Last time out, Quarantillo received a jump in competition only to lose via knockout at the hands of Edson Barboza. Similarly, Jackson lost his recent jump in competition to Dan Ige via knockout back in January. With both fighters looking to break into the top tier of the division, expect fireworks from the jump.
Quarantillo has a 17-5 professional record, featuring eight knockouts and five submissions. He has been knocked out twice, but that comes with Quarantillo’s brawling style. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Quarantillo averages 1.51 takedowns per bout while defending them at 58%. Very few fighters control Quarantillo on the mat, and he has shown the ability to work to his feet. Quarantillo lands 7.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.79. His 40% striking defense is a major concern, as evidenced by a few of the striking wars he has participated in to date.
Jackson comes from a wrestling background, and he lands 2.35 takedowns on average. Interestingly, Jackson only defends takedowns at 40%, but few fighters choose to test his wrestling. At times Jackson will also accept takedowns in order to work his own ground game. On the feet, he lands 2.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.92. Jackson has a 22-5 record with four knockout wins and 22 submissions. Jackson has been knocked out four times, which is the biggest concern.
Quarantillo should have an advantage on the feet and a direct path to victory given Jackson’s questionable durability. Jackson likely has the ground advantage, but Quarantillo’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt should help him to avoid submissions. As long as Quarantillo can avoid long periods with Jackson on top, his striking should be enough to get the win.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Ludovit Klein Odds
Ignacio Bahamondes: -200 | Ludovit Klein: +170
Kicking off the main card, Ignacio Bahamondes takes on Ludovit Klein as a -200 favorite in the men’s lightweight division. After losing his UFC debut to John Makdessi, Bahamondes has rattled off three straight wins, highlighted by a decision victory over Trey Ogden in April. Klein most recently fought to a draw against Jai Herbert in March. The judges deducted a point from Herbert, helping Klein avoid a loss.
Bahamondes is a pure kickboxer, averaging 7.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.51. He has shown solid defense across his career as well. He currently has 58% striking defense and 95% takedown defense. Only Rong Zhu has even landed a takedown on Bahamondes, but that proved costly, with Bahamondes finding the submission. At 14-4 overall, Bahamondes has nine knockouts and one submission on the resume.
Klein has a background in a variety of disciplines, including boxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. This well-rounded skill set shows up in his UFC statistics. Klein averages 1.22 takedowns per bout and 81% takedown defense. He should not have to worry much about defending takedowns given Bahamondes’ kickboxing background. On the feet, he lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67. Klein is 19-4-1 with eight knockouts and eight submission wins in his career. He has been knocked out once, which should be the primary concern against Bahamondes.
Bahamondes has a decent size advantage at 6-foot-3, towering over the 5-foot-7 Klein. With that said, neither fighter has a particularly difficult strength of schedule. Klein struggled with a similar opponent in Herbert last time out. Bahamondes did defeat Roosevelt Roberts, but he has otherwise faced back-end UFC talent. With strong takedown defense and superior striking, Bahamondes is the official pick. For those worried about the longer odds, wait for Bahamondes via knockout later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Tanner Boser vs. Aleksa Camur Odds
Tanner Boser: -180 | Aleksa Camur: +155
Now fighting at light heavyweight, Tanner Boser takes on Aleksa Camur as a -180 favorite. At 4-5 in the UFC, Boser’s move to light heavyweight did not go according to plan, as Boser was knocked out by Ion Cutelaba in the first round back in April. Camur has not fought since June of 2021, when he lost a questionable split decision to Nicolae Negumereanu.
Boser comes from a pure striking background, landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.47. He has solid 60% striking defense despite his most recent knockout loss. On the mat, Boser has never landed a takedown and only defends them at 61%. Fighters who can control Boser on the mat can generally find victories. Boser has a 20-10-1 record with 11 knockouts and two submission wins.
Camur has a 6-2 professional record and is much younger in his career. He is just 1-2 in the UFC, but his most recent bout featured plenty of controversy. Referee Mike Beltran warned Negumereanu 11 times for a series of infractions, but none resulted in a point deduction. In a fight that ended in a split decision, this proved costly for Camur. From a statistical perspective, Camur lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.15. On the mat, he lands 0.59 takedowns per bout and defends them at 50%. Five of Camur’s victories have come by knockout.
This is one of the most volatile fights on the card, but Camur has a few paths to victory. While grappling is not his first instinct, Camur should have an edge on the ground over Boser. Camur also has the striking to challenge Boser on the feet given Boser’s recent losses. With this being a low-level light heavyweight fight, backing the underdog in Camur makes sense.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Diego Lopes vs. Gavin Tucker Odds
Diego Lopes: -130 | Gavin Tucker: +110
Moving to the featherweight division, Diego Lopes takes on Gavin Tucker as a -130 favorite. After a loss on the Contender Series, Lopes took on Movsar Evloev on just five days’ notice. While he lost via decision, Lopes performed above expectations. On the other side, Tucker enters the fight fresh off a loss to Dan Ige in March of 2021. With over two years away from the game, he will look to right the ship.
Lopes comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he coaches Irene Aldana. He has a 21-6 professional record with eight wins coming via knockout and 11 by submission. Lopes has been knocked out twice, which should be the main concern across his fights. His stats are particularly difficult to evaluate in the UFC, with losses to quality opponents in Evloev and Joanderson Brito. He has allowed seven takedowns and defends them at just 36% through these two bouts. Lopes has not landed any takedowns, but he has attempted seven submissions. On the feet, he lands just 2.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.24. While Lopes specializes in submission grappling, he has lost plenty of rounds chasing those very submissions. He is one of the toughest evaluations on the card.
On the other side, Tucker has a background in a variety of mixed martial arts. He has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he also participated in taekwondo and judo prior to transitioning into mixed martial arts. Tucker averages 2.98 takedowns per bout while defending them at 53%. On the feet, he lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.28. Tucker has a 13-2 professional record. He has four knockouts and six submissions. Tucker has been knocked out once, but his durability generally holds up.
Tucker has a significantly more difficult strength of schedule, now complicated by a long layoff. With that said, he should have a wrestling and striking advantage over specialist Lopes. While Tucker needs to avoid the submission game of Lopes, his well-rounded skills should pay off at -130.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Dustin Jacoby vs. Kennedy Nzeckukwu Odds
Dustin Jacoby: +125 | Kennedy Nzechukwu: -145
Back to the men’s light heavyweight division, Dustin Jacoby takes on Kennedy Nzechukwu as a +125 underdog. After winning four fights in a row, Jacoby has fallen on hard times. He has now lost each of his last two fights against Khalil Rountree Jr. and Azamat Murzakanov, putting his back against the wall. Meanwhile, Nzechukwu has found his stride with three straight wins. Nzechukwu most recently defeated Devin Clark via submission back in May.
Jacoby has an 18-7-1 professional record, featuring 11 knockouts and one submission. Primarily a kickboxer, Jacoby lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. Jacoby has only landed three takedowns throughout his UFC career and defends them at a middling 60%. Grapplers have certainly found success against Jacoby, but he has also shown some recent striking vulnerabilities. Murzakanov knocked Jacoby down in their most recent fight, which Jacoby hopes is not a sign of things to come.
Nzechukwu also comes from a striking background. He has a 12-3 professional record with eight knockouts and one submission. Nzechukwu has been knocked out and submitted once each on the defensive end. Nzechukwu lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute in the UFC while absorbing 4.23. He averages 0.69 takedowns per bout and defends them at 80% as well. It does not look like wrestling will be a large factor in this fight.
From a strength of schedule perspective, Nzechukwu also has an edge, defeating fighters like Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson and Clark in his recent streak. Nzechukwu also has a massive seven-inch reach advantage, which should give him an edge in striking exchanges. At -145 overall, Nzechukwu will be the preferred play.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez Odds
Jessica Andrade: +360 | Tatiana Suarez: -450
In the co-main event, Jessica Andrade takes on Tatiana Suarez as a +360 underdog in the women’s strawweight division. Andrade is a staple across women’s MMA, though she has dropped two straight fights against Erin Blanchfield and Yan Xiaonan and was finished in both. On the other side, Suarez made her long-awaited return to the UFC with a submission win over Montana De La Rosa back in February.
Former strawweight title holder Andrade comes primarily from a grappling background, where she has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Andrade averages 2.61 takedowns per bout while defending them at 73%. On the feet, she is hyper-aggressive, landing 6.82 significant strikes per bout while absorbing 5.40. Andrade has a 24-11 record with nine knockouts and eight submissions. She has been knocked out five times and submitted thrice. While the losses contribute to some sticker shock, Andrade has only faced the best female fighters in the world over the last 10 years.
On the other side, Suarez has a perfect 9-0 record. She notably rattled off a four-fight winning streak to begin her UFC career, which featured opponents like Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza and Nina Nunes. She comes from a wrestling background but has developed into a well-rounded fighter. She lands an absurd 6.12 takedowns per bout while defending them at 100%. On the feet, she lands 4.35 significant strikes per bout while absorbing just 1.34. She has two knockouts and four submissions to her name.
There is a case for Suarez having the best wrestling in women’s MMA, while Andrade has been controlled on the mat a few times during her career. She may have a striking advantage, but Suarez’s strong defense should neutralize these exchanges. Though -450 is an absurd price to pay, Suarez is the official pick. Value bettors may elect to look Andrade’s way simply because +360 is a solid price for such a talented fighter. However, Suarez via submission or knockout should shave off some of that long -450 price later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Cory Sandhagen vs. Rob Font Odds
Cory Sandhagen: -265 | Rob Font: +225
Cory Sandhagen was originally scheduled to fight Umar Nurmagomedov, but he will now take on late replacement Rob Font at a catchweight of 140 pounds. Since a questionable decision loss at the hands of Petr Yan for the bantamweight title, Sandhagen has rattled off two straight wins over Song Yadong and Marlon Vera. Meanwhile, Font is 1-2 in his last three fights. However, he knocked out Adrian Yanez back in April, setting up this short notice opportunity. Bookmakers currently peg Sandhagen as a -265 favorite over Font.
Sandhagen comes from a kickboxing background and boasts some of the most intriguing striking in the sport. He lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.90. On the mat, he averages 0.89 takedowns per bout while defending them at 64%. Sandhagen has rarely been controlled on the mat, and that does not look like much of a threat in this bout. At 16-4 overall, Sandhagen has seven knockouts and three submissions. A win likely will cement a title shot for Sandhagen.
Font has developed a well-rounded game over the years. He lands 6.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. While Font does not look to wrestle frequently, he averages 1.01 takedowns per bout while defending them at 55%. Font has a 20-6 professional record, featuring nine knockouts and four submissions. The biggest concern with Font at this point in his career is the advancing age. Font generally relies on his quickness and explosion as a striker, but his recent losses to Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera raise concern against an equally talented striker in Sandhagen.
While both fighters have strong strengths of schedule, Sandhagen has performed a little better against the upper echelon of the division of late. Sandhagen also has all of the weapons to neutralize Font on the feet with his unorthodox striking. The price of -265 is not the best, but Sandhagen deserves it. Check later in the week for knockout props; until then, Sandhagen is the official pick.
