UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions: Full Card Odds & More

With UFC 299 in its wake, UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura looks to keep the energy high for the weeks before UFC 300. With some unproven names, and veterans looking to bounce back, there should be plenty of action in this one. Let’s dive into our UFC Fight Night picks, predictions, odds and more — including key Tuivasa-Tybura odds – for what should be an amazing event.

If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions, Odds & More!

Prelim Spotlight: UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura | Natan Levy-Mike Davis Pick

Davis’ start in the UFC wasn’t easy at all. He unfortunately caught Sodiq Yusuff in his fight on the Contender Series who went on to win four straight fights to start his UFC career. For his troubles, he was given the chance to make the jump to the UFC against perennial top-five Welterweight Contender Gilber Burns on short notice. Since these two losses, Davis got himself back on track, rattling off three wins straight.

Though it’s a nice bounce-back, the three wins came against fighters with a combined 4-6-1 record, with only one coming against an opponent with a winning record. Levy has similar question marks about the difficulty of his wins, as neither of his two victories came against an opponent with a winning record, but question marks about a fighter are far less easy to handle when they’re a -540 favorite.

A near certainty about this fight will be the level of aggression on display. Levy lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute and 5.37 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, while Davis lands 5.83 significant strikes per minute and 3.04 takedowns. With each fighter showing such a high output in both striking and grappling, I expect the fight to be a back-and-forth affair, with neither gaining too much of a clear advantage.

Ultimately, I see this going to a close decision with the rounds going 2-1 in favor of the winner. I’ll take my chances with the long odds against Levy. Either way, this will be a good notch in the cap for the winner, who could make the jump to the main card in their next fight.

For those looking for a safer bet, Levy +3.5 would be the way to go.

Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Levy ML +340 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Gerald Meerschaert-Bryan Barbarena Pick

Meerschaert essentially only wins by one method: submission. In 35 wins, he secured a submission 27 times (77%). His submission rate only went up since entering the UFC, securing a tap in nine of his 10 victories. Without a more well-rounded game, Meerschaert has a defined ceiling, as he’s nearly level in wins and losses in his UFC career, sitting at 10-9.

Despite his ceiling, Meerschaert is perfectly tailored to win against fighters with little-to-no grappling ability. Barberena almost perfectly meets this definition. Barberena is certainly dangerous on the feet, as evidenced by his 11 knockouts, but he too has a clear ceiling, as his grappling leaves much to be desired.

In two of his last three fights, he was forced to tap, once by armbar and once by rear naked choke. In his lengthy UFC career, his takedown defense rate has been putrid. He only successfully defends the takedown 49% of the time. Against a fighter like Meerschaert, who lands 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, Barberena will have a lot of trouble if he can’t fix this hole in his game.

Though Meerschaert doesn’t have the stand-up to win against upper-level fighters if he can’t get the fight to the ground, he isn’t just a sitting duck on the feet. He lands about the same amount of significant strikes per minute as he absorbs (3.30 to 3.50), with a solid strike defense rate of 53%. If he can avoid getting blasted by a knockout shot, he should have plenty of chances to win by sub.

The +110 odds may feel short for a fighter to win by a specific method, but given that Meerschaert doesn’t win by any other method in any predictable manner, it gives bettors a nice edge. Considering the implied probability for Meerschaert to win sits at 72.6%, multiplying this by his UFC submission-victory rate (90%) or his career submission-victory rate (77%) yields a number between 65% on the high end and 55% on the low end. Each of these results has a comfortable edge over the implied probability of submission victory, which comes to 47%.

Best UFC Fight Night Predictions: Meerschaert to win by Submission +110 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Pannie Kianzad-Macy Chiasson Pick

I’m riding with Kianzad as the underdog to keep climbing the division rankings.

Kianzad was dropped in each of her first two bouts, once by Chiasson and once by Julia Avila. The knockdowns combined with relatively low efficiency in her striking evidenced a lack of patience on Kianzad’s part, which resulted in her overextending and leaving herself exposed. After these two defeats, Kianzad was able to hone her higher-pressure striking approach while remaining patient, which allowed her to rattle off four straight wins.

Though she’s 1-2 in her last three fights, the two losses came against the current champion, Raquel Pennington, as well as third-ranked Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson is certainly dangerous, but she isn’t quite on the level of either Pennington or Vieira.

Chiasson comes into this bout similarly hitting a bit of a snag, going 3-3 in her six fights since her impressive 3-0 run to start her UFC career. While two of these fights came against Pennington and the fourth-ranked Irene Aldana, she took a bad loss to currently-unranked Lina Lansberg as a -450 favorite. Chiasson should be at a disadvantage on the feet, as she lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute at a 44% hit rate, which compares unfavorably to Kiadzan’s 4.87 significant strikes per minute on 49% efficiency.

Chiasson will likely have to take the fight to the ground to win, and she is adept at doing so, landing 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. However, Kiadzan has a respectable takedown defense rate, sitting at 71%. Further, a healthy amount of Chiasson’s takedowns come by sweeps in the clinch. Against an adept striker, it can be harder to close the distance to get in the clinch as opposed to landing a double or single-leg takedown.

I see the odds in this one as close to a pick’em, if not slanting slightly towards Kiadzan. With the odds comfortably in Chiasson’s favor, I feel good about riding with Kiadzan as the underdog.

Best UFC Fight Night Predictions: Kianzad ML +175 at Draftkings.

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Christian Rodriguez-Isaac Dulgarian Pick

Rodriguez became something of a hype killer in his past two fights. Two fights ago, he took the wind out of the sails of grappling phenom Raul Rosas Jr., handing him his only professional loss to date. In that bout, he stuffed 13 of Rosas’ 16 takedown attempts, yielding only four minutes of control time while amassing seven minutes of control time himself.

Following that bout, he took on Cameron Saaiman, who was 4-0 in the Octagon, and once again played the hype-killer role, winning by unanimous decision. The two victories are impressive in their own right, but the fact they came against a heavy grappler and an aggressive striker shows how well-rounded Rodriguez’s abilities are.

Dulgarian showed out in his UFC debut, taking Marshall to the mat and pummeling him for over four minutes before the referee finally stepped in. However, Marshall isn’t on the level of Rodriguez, as he is only 1-2 since jumping to the UFC from the Contender Series with his only win coming against a winless Marcelo Rojo.

A common issue with hyped prospects is that they often don’t face the level of adversity necessary to get to the higher reaches of the division in the early part of their career. For some, like Umar Nurmagomedov, they can withstand the pressure and come out victorious — but others will encounter setbacks or flame out entirely.

It’s unclear which type of fighter Dulgarian would be — or if he’ll necessarily face that level of adversity against Rodriguez. With Rodriguez’s ability to put pressure on seemingly unstoppable fighters in his past two fights, I will ride with him to do it again in the plus-money.

Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Rodriguez ML +150 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Ovince Saint Preux-Kennedy Nzechukwu Pick

Instead of picking a fighter, there is a nice edge on the over, as the oddsmakers anticipate this one ending earlier than normal for each fighter.

Usually when the odds are longer for the over than for the under, at least one of the fighters has a below-average fight time. However, this isn’t the case in this one. Over their 36 combined UFC fights, OSP’s average fight time is 9:30 while Nzechukwu’s average is 9:10.

The books are likely taking each fighter’s finish rate into account when setting the line for the under. The issue with simply looking at their ability to finish fights is that it doesn’t take into account their slower starts. For example, 18 of OSP’s 26 UFC fights came before the final bell, but 21 of his 26 fights went past the halfway point of the second round (81%). Nzechukwu is similar, as eight of his 10 UFC fights ended in a finish, but six of them went over 1.5 rounds (60%).

It makes sense that OSP’s fights tend to last into the second and third rounds. His pace on the feet is glacial, landing just 2.71 significant strikes per minute. His grappling is solid, but he only averages 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Nzechukwu’s numbers are far higher on the feet, landing 4.86 significant strikes per minute, but OSP’s experience should help him slow the fight down to the pace he normally looks for.

Overall, the hit rate on the over for each of these fighters is incredibly high. It may well hang in the balance for each of the 7:30 that must elapse for the bet to hit, but based on each of these fighters’ track records, it’s a risk well worth taking with the line in the plus-money.

Best UFC Fight Night Predictions: Over 1.5 +120 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Bryan Battle-Ange Loosa Pick

Battle’s early success in the UFC is certainly impressive. Five wins in six efforts, four of which were finishes (two by submission and two by knockout) can’t be overlooked. However, his loss is a serious concern, even though he bounced back in his next two fights, as it provides a blueprint for future opponents to try to take advantage. Against Rinat Fakhretdinov, Battle was utterly dominated, getting controlled for 14:11 of the 15-minute fight, while only landing three significant strikes.

 This is a blueprint that Loosa can look to exploit to grind out a decision victory. His last fight indicates that he wants to implement a more grappling-heavy approach, landing six takedowns on ten attempts. Constantly threatening the takedown pairs nicely with his output on the feet, as he lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute. Loosa’s approach has a significant downside; he also absorbs 6.88 significant strikes per minute.

I’m generally skeptical about fighters who absorb more significant strikes than they land, but the downside of this approach is blunted a bit by Battle’s strike distribution. Battle lands 49% of his significant strikes to the body compared to 38% to the head. Body shots no doubt have long-term impacts on fights and can end them quickly if they land right on the liver. However, without a picture-perfect shot, they don’t produce the knockouts that headshots do, particularly with the concern for a fighter’s safety if they absorb too much to the head.

If Loosa can walk through the pain that comes with body and leg shots, there is less chance that he will succumb to a knockout. On the other hand, Battle throws a relatively low amount of strikes, landing 4.52 significant strikes per minute. With his distribution, he doesn’t pressure opponents in the same way Loosa does, instead opting to time counters. This can result in beautiful knockouts and dull a pressure-heavy fighter, but it’s a double-edged sword. As in the Israel Adesanya–Sean Strickland fight, a fighter can take a counter-striker out of their comfort zone if they can defend well and disrupt their opponent’s timing.

Loosa being pegged as a comfortable underdog is a solid line that I would play down close to a pick ‘em. He can make it a long night for Battle if he can disrupt Battle’s timing or implement a wrestling-heavy game plan.

Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Loosa ML +145 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, Prediction | Tai Tuivasa-Marcin Tybura Pick

It’s no secret that Tuivasa has dynamite in his fists. If he connects on a shot, he could put out almost anyone on Earth. However, in his last three fights, the issue was actually connecting. In his last three fights, Tuivasa landed only 59 significant strikes, compared to the 226 significant strikes he absorbed. In his career, he absorbs a heavy 4.98 significant strikes per minute, defending only 43% of the time.

Even with Tuivasa’s power, opponents who can make it through an initial onslaught usually find success, as his gas tank doesn’t hold up in the later rounds. Out of the three fights Tuivasa went past the second round, he lost two of them, with the other coming as a 29-28 unanimous decision against an aging Andrei Arlovski. Overall, Tuivasa’s average fight time in his UFC career is just 6:45.

Tybura, however, is no stranger to longer fights. His average fight time over his 18 UFC fights totals 12:02, with six wins coming by decision. This bodes well in a five-round fight, as there is no indication Tuivasa can sustain any meaningful pressure over such a long period. With the line favoring the over 1.5 rounds, it seems odd to favor Tuivasa with his questionable gas tank.

A particular flaw in Tuivasa’s approach is his lack of grappling ability. In 13 UFC fights, he has yet to secure a successful takedown. He doesn’t make up for it much with his pressure on the feet. While 3.98 significant strikes landed per minute isn’t necessarily low, the fact that his opponents don’t have to fear the takedown at all makes his output concerning, especially as it diminishes in both impact and amount as the fight goes on.

Tybura isn’t known for his wrestling prowess in the octagon, but he still averages 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. As Tuivasa has a 54% takedown defense rate, I could see Tybura approach the fight with a more grappling-heavy approach, particularly in the earlier rounds when he can wear on Tuivasa and drain his stamina for the later rounds.

Tuivasa’s power definitely shouldn’t be overlooked, but without an early knockout, I don’t see a path to victory. I would consider playing Tybura all the way down to -150.

Best UFC Fight Night Predictions: Tybura ML -105 at DraftKings

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