The UFC heads out to London for UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall-Marcin Tybura. This stacked card also features Molly McCann against Julija Stoliarenko in the co-main event. Ahead of the Fight Night card, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Aspinall-Tybura card.
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UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions: Tom Aspinall-Marcin Tybura
Daniel Barez vs. Jafel Filho Odds
Daniel Barez: -105 | Jafel Filho: -115
UFC newcomer Daniel Barez fights Jafel Filho as a -105 underdog. Barez previously fought on Dana White’s Contender Series, falling to Carlos Hernandez. Then he rattled off three straight wins to punch his ticket to the UFC. Filho dropped his first UFC fight to Muhammad Mokaev after previously winning on the Contender Series.
Barez has a 16-5 professional record, featuring seven knockouts and six submissions. He has a well-rounded skill set, evidenced by his 3.47 significant strikes landed per minute and five takedowns on average. Of his losses, he has been submitted twice and lost via decision another three times.
On the other side, Filho has a 14-3 record at the age of 30. he has five wins via knockout and eight via submission, lands 1.46 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.15 takedowns per bout. He only defends takedowns at 55%, but his four takedowns allowed all came against Mokaev. Filho will likely try to get this fight to the ground and work his submissions. It should be noted that Filho nearly finished Mokaev, but he refused to tap after a brutal knee bar.
This fight leaves many questions given the lack of UFC experience on both sides. Filho should have the advantage on the ground and fought well against Mokaev in his UFC debut. At just -115, Filho comes with a favorable price too.
Bruna Brasil vs. Shauna Bannon Odds
Bruna Brasil: -135 | Shauna Bannon: +110
Bruna Brasil takes on Shauna Bannon as a -135 favorite. After a victory on the Contender Series, Brasil lost her UFC debut to Denise Gomes via knockout in April. On the other side, Bannon makes her UFC debut with a perfect 5-0 record. She won her last fight via decision against Minna Grusander in March.
Brasil currently has an 8-3-1 record with three knockouts and two submissions. She has been knocked out three times in her losses. Brasil lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.23. She also averages 1.74 takedowns while defending them at 45%. She has been taken down three times in both of her fights.
Bannon comes from a kickboxing background and has two knockouts among her five victories. She has some wrestling as well, which she displayed in her most recent fight. Bannon’s biggest question is her strength of schedule. Her most recent opponent has a 6-5 record, but most of her opponents have five fights or fewer on their resumes. Bannon did have a lengthy amateur career, where she suffered three losses.
Brasil needs to be careful of Bannon’s striking after already suffering three knockout losses in her career. However, she should have a wrestling advantage. With that said, Bannon has developed better takedown defense of late. Taking a shot on the underdog makes sense here.
Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz Odds
Chris Duncan: -125 | Yanal Ashmouz: +105
Fresh off a win over Omar Morales in his UFC debut, Chris Duncan now takes on Yanal Ashmouz as a -125 favorite. Ashmouz also enters this fight after winning his UFC debut over Sam Patterson by knockout in March of this year. Ashmouz has a perfect 7-0 record.
Duncan lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute while absorbing the same number. He also lands 4.73 takedowns per bout on 36% accuracy. Duncan has never faced a takedown attempt in his UFC career, and of his 10 wins, he has seven knockouts and one submission.
Ashmouz is a tougher evaluation given the limited UFC experience. It only took 15 strikes and one takedown for him to put away Patterson in the first round of his UFC debut. Ashmouz has four knockouts and a pair of submissions within his seven professional wins. Ashmouz’s lack of UFC experience appears in his wild striking. However, he does have solid wrestling and solid ground and pound.
Duncan nearly lost to Charlie Campbell before landing a knockout on the Contender Series. With both fighters willing to trade, knockout props should be examined later in the week. With that said, sprinkling the underdog Ashmouz has some value as well.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad Odds
Ketlen Vieira: -175 | Pannie Kianzad: +145
Ketlen Vieira enters this matchup against Pannie Kianzad as a -175 favorite. Vieira has a 13-3 professional record but dropped her last fight against Raquel Pennington in January of this year. Similarly, Kianzad sits at 17-6 after defeating Lina Lansberg in April.
Vieira comes from a grappling background, where she has black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo. She lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.16. Vieira also averages 1.36 takedowns per bout while defending them at 92%. Among her 13 wins, she has a pair of knockouts and four submissions.
Kianzad has three knockouts and 13 decision victories. She lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.12. She only lands 0.4 takedowns per bout, but she defends them at 80%. Kianzad has been knocked out once and submitted twice in her career.
While Kianzad does have solid takedown defense, she has not fought the same level of competition. She also does not have enough power to put Vieira away. As this fight progresses, Vieira should be able to work her wrestling and end up with a decision victory.
Makhmud Muradov vs. Bryan Barberena Odds
Makhmud Muradov: -275 | Bryan Barberena: +220
After two straight losses, Makhmud Muradov enters a fight against Bryan Barberena as a -275 favorite. Muradov most recently lost a decision to Caio Borralho in October of last year. On the other side, Barberena has also lost each of his last two fights, including a submission loss at the hands of Gunnar Nelson in March.
Muradov has a 25-8 professional record with 17 wins by knockout. He lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.72. Muradov also averages 0.7 takedowns per bout while defending them at 76%. He has been submitted four times in his career, but that should not be much of a threat against Barberena.
Similar to Muradov, Barberena is a pure striker. He lands 5.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.83. Barberena does have some defensive deficiencies, including 44% striking defense and 54% takedown defense. At 18-10, Barberena has been knocked out twice and submitted three times.
With his last win coming against a washed Robbie Lawler, Barberena has significant strength of schedule issues. Muradov may actually have a wrestling advantage, which is saying a lot about Barberena’s weak ground game. While both fighters are tough, Muradov should be able to get the nod here. For those concerned with the price, look to Muradov knockout props later in the week.
Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues Odds
Mick Parkin: +120 | Jamal Pogues: -145
In another matchup between two Contender Series alums, Jamal Pogues will take on Mick Parkin as a -145 favorite in the heavyweight division. Pogues has a 10-3 record while riding a three-fight winning streak. He most recently defeated Josh Parisian in February of this year. On the other side, Parkin has a perfect 6-0 record and comes in fresh off a submission win over Eduardo Jose Neves.
Pogues comes from a wrestling background and lands 4.0 takedowns per bout and 50% accuracy. Pogues only has 66% takedown defense, but this speaks more to the limited takedown attempts he has been forced to defend. On the feet, Pogues lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.56. Despite the negative striking differential, Pogues still has four wins by knockout in his career.
Parkin is a little harder to evaluate given his small sample. He landed seven strikes and two takedowns in his Contender Series match. Parkin also allowed 16 strikes and two takedowns in a fight that only lasted minutes. The UFC newcomer appears to have the wrestling to challenge Pogues here. However, he does some of his best work with his hands, evidenced by his five knockouts.
Pogues has been knocked out before, so he needs to tread lightly with Parkin’s power. However, he has the better strength of schedule and best overall win against Parisian. With the skills to compete wherever this fight goes, Pogues will get the job done at -145.
Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez Odds
Marc Diakiese: +145 | Joel Alvarez: -175
Joel Alvarez makes his return to the Octagon after over a year away. He most recently fought Arman Tsarukyan and lost via knockout. Now he will face Marc Diakiese as a -175 favorite. Diakiese also dropped his most recent bout against Michael Johnson via decision.
Alvarez has one of the stranger profiles on the UFC roster. He lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.68. Alvarez has never landed a takedown in his six UFC fights, but 16 of his 19 professional wins have come via submission. Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and has allowed six takedowns in his career. Oftentimes, he will allow the takedowns to work his submission games.
On the other side, Diakiese brings a well-rounded skill set. He lands 2.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.63. Diakiese also averages 3.33 takedowns per bout and 67% takedown defense. He has struggled to make the jump beyond beating the entry-level talent of the UFC, which makes for a tough test against Alvarez. Diakiese has also been submitted twice, which works right into the hands of Alvarez.
Diakiese’s wrestling is the perfect matchup for Alvarez’s submission game. The layoff for Alvarez is a concern, but Diakiese has frequently struggled against better competition within the division. For that reason, backing Alvarez at -175 is the call.
Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons Odds
Danny Roberts: -105 | Jonny Parsons: -115
After previously earning a split decision victory on the Contender’s Series, Jonny Parsons will take on UFC veteran Danny Roberts as a -115 favorite. Parsons has not actually fought since the Contender Series bout, where he defeated Solomon Renfro via split decision in October of 2021. Meanwhile, Roberts comes off two straight losses at the hands of Francisco Trinaldo and Jack Della Maddalena.
Now making his UFC debut, Parsons comes from a striking background. While he only has one appearance registering statistics, Parsons landed 53 strikes against Renfro but allowed 78 strikes. Parsons also allowed two takedowns, putting his takedown defense at 50%. His layoff and lack of experience will be interesting against a veteran like Roberts. Not to mention, Parsons has been knocked out twice already in his career.
Roberts also comes from a striking background. He averages 3.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.50. However, he has fought the more difficult competition to this point in his career. Of his 18 wins, Roberts has eight knockouts and five submissions. Even with the submission wins, Roberts does not pose much of a ground threat; he only averages 0.26 takedowns per bout and 10% accuracy.
The layoff and lack of experience make Parsons a tough fighter to handicap. While Roberts has struggled of late, his experience should be enough to take advantage of the UFC newcomer. At just -105, Roberts is worth a look here.
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos Odds
Davey Grant: +120 | Daniel Marcos: -145
Moving to the men’s bantamweight division, Davey Grant takes on Daniel Marcos as a +120 underdog. Grant enters this fight off two straight wins after defeating Louis Smolka and Raphael Assuncao. Similarly, Marcos will look to extend a 14-fight winning streak after knocking out Saimon Oliveira in January of this year.
Marcos lands 6.01 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.05. Marcos has not scored a takedown at the UFC level, but he defends them at 88%. Generally speaking, his ground game has been just good enough to keep his fights on the feet. Marcos does not have a strong strength of schedule, so this could be tested against a UFC veteran in Grant.
Grant will have an experience edge with 11 UFC fights under his belt. Grant has a well-rounded game, featuring 4.78 significant strikes landed and 3.89 significant strikes absorbed. He also lands 1.41 takedowns per bout and 42% accuracy. While his 62% takedown defense leaves a little to be desired, Marcos doesn’t look like a threat to get this fight to the ground.
Throughout his career, Grant has struggled with superior grapplers, evidenced by his four submission losses. He has never been knocked out and has shown solid durability into his mid-30s. With a strong, complementary mixed martial arts game, Grant should be able to out-point the undefeated prospect. Sprinkling the underdog Grant makes sense here.
Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao Odds
Lerone Murphy: -155 | Josh Culibao: +130
Lerone Murphy will battle Josh Culibao as a -155 favorite. After dropping his UFC debut to Zubaira Tukhugov, Murphy has rattled off four straight wins, most recently defeating Gabriel Santos in March of this year. On the other side, Culibao has also begun an impressive three-fight winning streak. Last time out, he submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan in February.
Murphy comes primarily from a striking background, but he continues to add facets into his game. He averages 3.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.64. On the ground, he lands 0.83 takedowns per bout but only defends them at 43%. With that said, he has shown the ability to work back to his feet. Santos and Makwan Amirkhani both landed five takedowns against Murphy, but both struggled to control him. Of his 12 wins, Murphy has seven knockouts and no submissions.
Like Murphy, Culibao has also added components to his game over the years. He lands 2.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.13. Most of this negative differential came from a loss to Jalin Turner. Since then, Culibao has been far more competitive on the feet. On the ground, he has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, but he defends them at 82%. This fight looks more likely to play out on the feet, and to date, Culibao has five knockouts and one submission on his pro record.
This is an evenly matched fight, and both fighters will look to stand and trade. Neither has a significant advantage in their strength of schedule, and both fighters are in the prime of their careers. With Murphy winning a questionable decision in his last time out, Culibao likely has some value in the betting markets. That said, the confidence interval will be low.
Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam Odds
Jai Herbert: +110 | Fares Ziam: -135
In the men’s lightweight division, Jai Herbert takes on Fares Ziam as a +110 underdog this weekend. Herbert most recently fought in March of this year, earning a draw against Ludovit Klein after a point deduction. On the other side, Ziam enters this fight fresh off a win over Michal Figlak in September of last year.
Herbert comes primarily from a striking background, where he lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.92. To this point, he has given and received a few brutal knockouts in his career. At 12-4-1, Herbert has nine knockout wins and three knockout losses to his name. Interestingly, he landed his first takedown in his last fight, but he still only averages 0.25 takedowns per bout. Meanwhile, his 52% takedown defense creates a path for his opponents to find victory.
Ziam has spent nearly a year away from the Octagon at this point. He has a diverse mixed martial arts background and lands 2.52 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.70. His 66% striking defense borders on elite for this division. On the mat, he lands 0.96 takedowns per bout and 70% takedown defense. He has five knockouts and four submissions among his professional wins. Ziam has been submitted three times, but that should not be much of a threat against Herbert.
Herbert should have a strength of schedule edge. However, he has dropped each of his fights against superior competition. Stylistically, Ziam has the ground game to give Herbert major problems. While Herbert should have a striking advantage, his poor takedown defense and questionable durability are enough to back Ziam as a -135 favorite here.
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Odds
Paul Craig: +180 | Andre Muniz: -225
Submission specialist Paul Craig makes his highly anticipated return to the UFC Octagon to take on Andre Muniz in the men’s middleweight division. After nearly putting in the title conversation, Craig dropped his two most recent fights. Last time out, he lost to Johnny Walker via knockout. On the other side, Muniz also lost his most recent fight to Brendan Allen by submission, which halted a seven-fight winning streak in the UFC. Muniz is a -225 favorite.
Craig has three knockouts and 13 submissions among his 16 professional wins. In six losses, he has been knocked out four times and submitted once. On the feet, he lands 2.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.88. He basically uses his strikes to set up his ground game. On the mat, Craig lands 1.81 takedowns per bout and 20% accuracy. He also has 50% takedown defense, but he often accepts takedowns in order to work the ground game.
Muniz is also a grappling specialist. Of his 23 wins, Muniz has 15 submissions and four knockouts. Like Craig, he has been knocked out four times and submitted just once. Muniz lands 2.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.74. He also averages 2.95 takedowns per bout and 41% takedown defense.
Ultimately, this fight is almost a lock to hit the mat. Craig has fought the better competition and has some of the better wins in this division. With Muniz struggling in his first step up in competition, Craig has plenty of value at +185. One of these fighters is likely to get submitted, so examine submission props later in the week.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili Odds
Nathaniel Wood: -200 | Andre Fili: +160
Nathaniel Wood takes on Andre Fili as a -200 favorite this weekend. After losing to Casey Kenney near the end of 2020, Wood has now rattled off two straight wins. He most recently defeated Charles Jourdain by decision in September of last year. On the other side, Fili picked up a win over Bill Algeo after a couple of fights did not go his way.
Wood has a well-rounded game, evidenced by his nine knockouts and five submissions among his 19 pro wins. Wood has been defeated five times, including a pair of knockouts and submissions. On the feet, he lands 6.34 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 4.42. He also scores 1.81 takedowns per bout while defending them at 73%.
Like Wood, Fili also has a diverse game. He has nine wins by knockout and three by submission among his 19. Fili has been defeated nine times, including three knockouts and a pair of submissions. With that said, he lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. Likewise, Fili lands 2.38 takedowns per bout while defending them at 69%.
Both fighters have lost bouts to superior wrestlers, which creates an interesting wrinkle to this fight. Wood is the younger, more well-rounded fighter here. While he certainly has his deficiencies, Wood is the rightful favorite here. The number is not ideal, but Wood is the official pick.
Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko Odds
Molly McCann: -250 | Julija Stoliarenko: +190
Moving to the women’s flyweight division, UK favorite Molly McCann takes on Julija Stoliarenko as a -250 favorite. Last time out, the UFC fed McCann to the wolves, as she lost to Erin Blanchfield via submission almost immediately last November. Meanwhile, Stoliarenko dropped her most recent fight to Chelsea Chandler by knockout in October of last year.
Starting with the favorite, McCann comes primarily from a boxing background. She lands 5.72 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90. With that said, she does have some ground skills. McCann averages 1.67 takedowns per bout and 44% takedown defense. Oftentimes, that takedown defense works against McCann and can cause her to lose rounds. Of her 13 wins, McCann has six knockouts and seven decision wins.
On the other side, Stoliarenko is not UFC-level talent. She is 1-5 in the promotion, and her only win came against Jessica Rose-Clark. Stoliarenko’s most recent knockout loss to Chandler has aged poorly, and she likely will get cut after one more loss. She lands 2.75 significant strikes while absorbing 4.61, plus her 44% striking defense is woeful. On the mat, she only lands 0.70 takedowns per bout while defending them at 62%.
With Stoliarenko unlikely to get this fight to the ground, McCann should piece up this punching bag on her way to victory. The juice of -250 is a lot to lay, so McCann by knockout or decision could be in play later this week.
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Odds
Tom Aspinall: -450 | Marcin Tybura: +340
Finally making long-awaited return, Tom Aspinall will face Marcin Tybura as a -450 favorite in the men’s heavyweight division. Last time out, Aspinall suffered an injury against Curtis Blaydes that caused him to take a whole year off. Prior to that, Aspinall held a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC. Meanwhile, Tybura enters this fight on a two-fight winning streak, capped off by a decision win over Blagoy Ivanov in February.
Aspinall has extensive training in boxing, wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, where he has a black belt. Aspinall lands 7.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.87. He also averages four takedowns per fight and defends them at 100%. Of his 12 wins, Aspinall has nine knockouts and a pair of submissions.
Tybura also has a diverse skill set. On the feet, he lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.31. Tybura scores 1.39 takedowns per bout and defends them at 79%. It should be noted that Tybura has not had any quality wins within the last three years. Greg Hardy, Walt Harris and Alexandr Romanov have all proven to be frauds, while Ivanov is simply past his prime. Tybura’s most recent loss came against Alexander Volkov, who Aspinall absolutely smoked.
Ultimately, Aspinall enters this bout as the largest favorite on the entire card, and for good reason. For those weary of his -450 betting line, look to the prop markets later in the week. Under 2.5 rounds and Aspinall via knockout should provide pretty juicy returns.
