The UFC heads back to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos. This stacked card also features Cub Swanson against Hakeem Dawodu in the co-main event. Ahead of the UFC Fight Night card, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Luque-dos Anjos card.
Looking for other UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds? Use our industry-leading best bets tool to get ahead! If you’re looking for the DFS side of things, Stokastic has MMA projections, UFC ownership and UFC top fighters data!
UFC Fight Night Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson Odds
Da’Mon Blackshear: -225 | Jose Johnson: +185
After originally expecting to face Brady Hiestand, Da’Mon Blackshear will now take on late replacement Jose Johnson as a -225 favorite. Now 1-1-1 in the UFC, Blackshear won his most recent bout against Luan Lacerda via knockout in June of this year. On the other side, Johnson enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak after defeating Jack Cartwright on the Contender Series last August.
Blackshear boasts a 13-5-1 professional record with a pair of knockouts and eight submissions. He excels primarily on the ground, with 1.16 takedowns per bout. He has been outwrestled at times, evidenced by his 54% takedown defense. On the feet he leaves a little to be desired. Blackshear lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.83. He has been outstruck in two of his three UFC performances to date.
On the other side, Johnson has now fought on the Contender Series twice, going 1-1. In his career, Johnson has a 15-7 record with eight knockouts and a pair of submissions. He has been knocked out once and submitted, which looks troubling against Blackshear. Within his two appearances in the UFC, he defends takedowns at just 30%, which will be a major problem against Blackshear. On the feet, he lands 2.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.33.
Johnson has been taken down 18 times in two UFC fights. Blackshear possesses superior wrestling, which he should use here. With a slick submission game, Blackshear could return slightly better odds in the prop market.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Montserrat Ruiz Odds
Jaqueline Amorim: -225 | Montserrat Ruiz: +185
Taking place in the women’s strawweight division, Jaqueline Amorim takes on Montserrat Ruiz as a -225 favorite. Amorim is 0-1 in the UFC after dropping her debut to Sam Hughes via unanimous decision earlier in April. Meanwhile, Ruiz is 1-1 in the UFC. After defeating Cheyanne Vlismas in her debut, Ruiz lost to Amanda Lemos via knockout in July of 2021.
Amorim has a 6-1 record and is a specialist on the ground, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. On top of winning multiple championships within the discipline, she already has five victories in MMA via submission. Unfortunately, her striking and wrestling still need some work. In her UFC debut, a middling strawweight in Hughes outstruck Amorim 46-12. Amorim did score two takedowns, while Hughes only landed one. However, Hughes controlled the wrestling exchanges, earning over seven minutes of control time. Fighters with solid striking and ground defense should be able to exploit Amorim until she develops more wrinkles to her game.
Ruiz has not competed in two years. She is one of the smallest fighters on the entire roster at 5 feet tall. She will be ceding seven inches of reach to Amorim, but neither fighter prefers to strike anyway. Ruiz comes from a high-level wrestling background. In the UFC she lands 3.85 takedowns per bout and 80% accuracy. From a striking perspective, she only lands 1.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.44. With a 10-2 professional record, Ruiz has three knockouts and two submissions. She has also never been submitted, which gives her a path to victory against Amorim as long as she can avoid submissions.
Seeing Amorim as a -225 favorite presents quite a bit of sticker shock. Amorim has been outstruck and outwrestled against middling competition as recently as April. With Ruiz’s elite wrestling background, taking a shot on the underdog at +185 makes sense.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian Odds
Francis Marshall: -190 | Isaac Dulgarian: +155
Moving to the men’s featherweight division, Francis Marshall takes on UFC newcomer Isaac Dulgarian as a -190 favorite. After a successful fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, Marshall has a 1-1 record in the UFC. However, he most recently dropped a split decision to William Gomis in April. Dulgarian makes his debut with a perfect 5-0 record and a 100% finish rate.
Marshall has a 7-1 professional record, featuring one knockout and four submission victories. He has a fairly well-rounded skill set, landing 4.08 significant strikes while absorbing 3.64. Marshall also comes from a strong wrestling background, evidenced by his 3.73 takedowns per bout. Marshall has never defended a takedown attempt in the UFC, which will likely get tested and present a major question ahead of this bout.
Dulgarian makes his UFC debut after just five professional fights. Within those fights, Dulgarian has three knockouts and a pair of submissions. He comes from a wrestling background, which will provide a new test for Marshall within the Octagon. Given that all five of his fights ended within the first round, his cardio is a complete unknown and his striking has not been tested much either. Plus, all of these victories came against weaker competition.
Both fighters have questions entering this fight — Dulgarian’s from short bouts against weak competition. However, his wrestling likely will put Marshall into uncharted waters as well. For that reason, take a stab at the underdog Dulgarian at +155.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: J.P. Buys vs. Marcus McGhee Odds
J.P. Buys: +300 | Marcus McGhee: -400
In the men’s bantamweight division, J.P. Buys takes on Marcus McGhee as the longest underdog on the card at a price of +300. Buys has been horrific in the UFC, with an 0-3 record after going 1-1 on the Contender Series. He most recently was knocked out at the hands of Cody Durden in June of last year. Conversely, McGhee has a 1-0 UFC record after submitting Journey Newson earlier in April.
Buys comes from a wrestling background but lacks any sort of standup prowess. On the feet, he lands 1.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.02. His 39% striking defense speaks to his inability to defend in striking exchanges. On the ground, Buys averages 1.65 takedowns per bout. However, for a fighter with a wrestling background, his 25% takedown defense leaves plenty to be desired. Both Bruno Silva and Montel Jackson found success controlling him on the mat, and wrestling specialist Durden knocked out Buys in the first round. Buys is now 9-5 overall, and while he has three knockouts and five submissions, he has been finished four times. At this point, Buys looks like more of a regional talent.
McGhee has a 7-1 record. While a little less experienced in the cage, he is the older fighter at 33 years of age. McGee trains out of MMA Lab and prefers to stand and trade. He outstruck Newson 25-13 before landing a submission in his short-notice debut. McGhee appears to have decent takedown defense and the ability to work his way back to his feet when taken down. Among his seven wins, he has six knockouts and one submission.
This bout presents plenty of volatility. Honestly, neither fighter has a win over quality UFC competition. McGhee should be the more well-rounded fighter, but a -400 price is absurd for this level of fight. Perhaps waiting to find a shorter price on a knockout prop later in the week can shave off some of those odds. McGhee is the official pick, but check out the prop market to potentially receive a superior payout.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: A.J. Dobson vs. Tafon Nchukwi Odds
A.J. Dobson: +120 | Tafon Nchukwi: -140
Moving to slightly more experienced fighters, A.J. Dobson takes on Tafon Nchukwi in the middleweight division as a +120 underdog. After a submission win on the Contender Series, Dobson has lost two straight bouts in the UFC. Most recently, he dropped a decision to Armen Petrosyan in October of last year. Similarly, Nchukwi has dropped his last two fights, losing most recently to Carlos Ulberg via knockout earlier in June.
Dobson originally began combat sports with wrestling and Jiu Jitsu, but he has developed a fairly well-rounded game. With that said, he does have limitations. Dobson lands 4.34 significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 6.00. On the ground, he averages 1.75 takedowns per bout but only defends them at 64%. In his last fight, Petrosyan outstruck him 118-58. The fight prior, Jacob Malkoun landed six takedowns and controlled Dobson for over nine minutes. At 6-2 overall, Dobson has three knockouts and two submission victories. With that said, his level of competition leaves plenty on the table.
Nchukwi has a 6-3 professional record, featuring four knockout victories. Nchukwi has been knocked out twice, which came in his last two fights. Evidenced by his record, Nchukwi prefers to stand and trade. He averages 6.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. On the ground, he lands 0.94 takedowns per bout and defends them at 71%. Nchukwi also has a questionable strength of schedule. His only wins in the UFC came against weaker competition in Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
Ultimately, this fight likely comes down to Nchukwi’s ability to defend Dobson’s takedowns. Nchukwi has superior striking and has been solid defending takedowns in the past. Notably, Azamat Murzakanov only went 1-for-5 on takedown attempts in his second-most recent fight. For those reasons, Nchukwi at -140 will be the play. Check knockout props later in the week for a superior payoff as well.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos Odds
Juliana Miller: +120 | Luana Santos: -140
In the women’s flyweight division, Juliana Miller takes on Luana Santos as a +120 underdog. Miller is 1-1 in the UFC after dropping her most recent fight via decision to Veronica Hardy. Santos makes her UFC debut after rattling off two straight victories on the regional scene.
Miller has a 5-2 professional record when including her wins on the Ultimate Fighter. Of those wins, she has one knockout and three submission wins, though she is fairly green in her career. Within the UFC, she averages 2.90 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.18. On the mat, she lands 2.07 takedowns per bout, but her 0% takedown defense is alarming. Hardy landed all four of her takedown attempts against Miller, controlling her on the mat for over seven minutes.
Santos makes her UFC debut with a 5-1 record. Of those wins, three came via submission. She has a black belt in judo and should present an interesting challenge for multiple fighters in this division. The wrestling pedigree immediately stands out against Miller’s 0% takedown defense. As long as Santos can avoid Miller’s submissions, she should have a clear advantage on the mat.
Neither fighter has much in terms of legitimate Octagon experience. However, Santos has a clear advantage on the ground given her wrestling background. At -140, Santos should do enough to get the victory in her UFC debut.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett Odds
Josh Fremd: -350 | Jamie Pickett: +260
Back to the middleweight division, Josh Fremd takes on Jamie Pickett as a -350 favorite and the second-largest favorite on the card. After an 0-2 start in the UFC, Fremd earned a submission victory over Sedriques Dumas in March of this year. Pickett has now lost three straight after most recently falling to Bo Nickal via submission in March.
Fremd has a 10-4 professional record with four knockouts and four submission victories. However, he has been knocked out and submitted once as well. Fremd comes from a wrestling background, evidenced by his 1.56 takedown average. With that said, Fremd only has 31% takedown defense and has been controlled in two of his last three bouts against Tresean Gore and Anthony Hernandez. He averages 3.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.71. Still, his 42% striking defense leaves plenty to be desired.
Pickett initially began training in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has since become almost a pure striker. At 13-9 overall, Pickett has nine wins via knockout. Pickett has been knocked out twice and submitted on four occasions. Within the UFC, he lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.23. On the ground, he lands 1.34 takedowns per bout and has 66% takedown defense. Similar to Fremd, opponents Nickal and Kyle Daukaus both found success against Pickett on the ground in recent fights.
Neither fighter has much in terms of quality wins in recent matches. Fremd deserves his position as favorite, but -350 is a bit shocking for a low-level fight. Sprinkling Pickett at +260 makes sense for those getting deep into the betting cards this weekend.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday Odds
Josh Parisian: +160 | Martin Buday: -200
Josh Parisian takes on Martin Buday as a +160 underdog. Parisian has basically traded wins and losses to this point in his UFC career. Most recently, he dropped a decision loss to Jamal Pogues back in February. Buday has a perfect 3-0 record within the UFC despite a few questionable decisions. Last time out, he defeated Jake Collier via unanimous decision.
Parisian operates primarily as a striker with 11 knockouts on his profile. At 15-6 overall, Parisian has also been knocked out twice and submitted once. Within the UFC, he lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.50. In addition to his negative striking ratio, his 41% striking defense leaves him open to plenty of big shots. On the mat, Parisian lands 1.05 takedowns per minute and defends them at 48%. Takedowns do not appear to be a major threat on either side of this bout.
Like Parisian, Buday comes from a striking background. He has a 12-1 professional record, with seven wins coming via knockout. Interestingly, Buday has a negative striking ratio despite his 3-0 UFC record. He lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.33. In his second-most recent fight, Buday lost the striking battle 118-66 but still earned a split decision victory. With that said, Buday has better wins, with victories over Chris Barnett and Jake Collier on the profile.
In a fight that should play out on the feet, Buday has a striking advantage over Parisian. The price of -200 is not bad, but check out the knockout props later in the week for shorter odds on Buday.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo Odds
Polyana Viana: +155 | Iasmin Lucindo: -190
Back in the women’s strawweight division, Polyana Viana takes on Iasmin Lucindo as a +155 underdog. Viana is 4-4 in the UFC and most recently knocked out Jinh Yu Frey in November of last year. Lucindo has a 1-1 record in the UFC and most recently defeated Brogan Walker via decision back in April.
Viana comes from a grappling background, where she participated in Brazilian jiu-jitsu from a young age. She has a 13-5 professional record with five knockouts and eight submissions. Of her five losses, she has been submitted just one time. In the UFC, she lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86. Viana’s ground game is OK, as she averages 0.8 takedowns per bout while defending them at 50%, and at times she will accept takedowns so she can work her own mat prowess.
Lucindo comes from a striking background, and she lands 3.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.83. She also lands 2.0 takedowns per bout and will pursue this route when she feels there is a grappling advantage. At 14-5 in her career, Lucindo has eight career knockouts and a pair of submissions. She has been knocked out once and submitted twice. It should be noted that Lucindo is still just 21 years old, giving her more time to acquire new tactics in the fight game.
This is a tricky fight to evaluate, with two fighters at different points in their careers. Lucindo has more untapped potential and also appears to have a striking advantage in this fight, along with decent grappling chops. While the -190 price leaves a little to be desired, Lucindo’s ceiling makes her the preferred play in this bout.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden Odds
Terrance McKinney: -250 | Mike Breeden: +200
Terrance McKinney is a short-notice replacement and will take on Mike Breeden as a -250 favorite with just over a week to prepare. McKinney has lost three of his last four fights, but he has shown flashes in all three. Most recently, he lost via submission to Nazim Sadykhov on July 15. Meanwhile, Breeden is fresh off two straight losses, with his latest loss being to Natan Levy in April of last year. With the switch in opponent from Lando Vannata to McKinney, Breeden’s work will be cut out for him.
McKinney comes from a wrestling background, but he has developed some strong hands of late as well. In the Octagon, he lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.60. The biggest question on the feet is his durability and cardio. McKinney has fought into the third round just one time, and his 43% striking defense leaves him open to big shots. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses. On the mat, he averages 3.74 takedowns per bout and 83% takedown defense. McKinney has been submitted twice, but as long as he can avoid those traps, he generally has a grappling advantage. He has a professional record of 13-6 with five knockouts and eight submissions. None of his fights have reached the judges, making him a pure kill-or-be-killed fighter.
Breeden has a diverse skill set, but his overall level of competition is weak. He lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.38. Like McKinney, he only defends strikes at 41%, leaving him open to big shots on the feet. On the mat, he averages 1.44 takedowns per bout, defending them at 59%. Superior wrestlers have also gotten the best of Breeden, evidenced by the nine takedowns he allowed against Levy last time out. Breeden has a 10-5 record with eight knockout wins. He has been knocked out twice in his losses.
McKinney should be the more skilled fighter wherever this fight plays out. While McKinney’s recent win/loss record raises concern, he has also battled significantly tougher competition. McKinney deserves to be favored, but his propensity for the finish should open some shorter lines in the prop market later this week.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus Odds
Khalil Rountree: -200 | Chris Daukaus: +165
Moving to the light heavyweight division, Khalil Rountree takes on Chris Daukaus as a -200 favorite. Rountree is fresh off three wins, most recently defeating Dustin Jacoby via split decision. Daukaus makes his way down to light heavyweight after previously competing at heavyweight. He has been knocked out in three straight fights, with the most recent knockout coming at the hands of Jairzinho Rozenstruik in December of last year.
Now 11-5 in his career, Rountree comes from a pure striking background, evidenced by his seven career knockouts. Rountree has been knocked out twice and submitted once, with most of his fights playing out on the feet. In the UFC, he averages 3.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.19. Rountree is most vulnerable to strong wrestlers, as he has never landed a takedown and only defends them at 54%. Fortunately for Rountree, Daukaus has also never landed a takedown in the UFC.
Now in a more appropriate weight class, Daukaus should be able to work more of the standup prowess he displayed early in his career. Daukaus began his UFC run with four straight knockout wins before getting knocked out three times. He averages 6.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.48. Daukaus has a 12-6 record in his career with 11 knockout victories, five knockout losses and one submission loss.
While Daukaus most recent losing streak raises concerns, these losses came against the top of the heavyweight division. Meanwhile, Rountree has been fighting up and down the light heavyweight rankings, losing when forced to step up in competition. In what should be a standup war, Daukaus is an interesting option at the +165 price tag. As long as he can avoid the big shots, Daukaus should be a live underdog in his move down to light heavyweight.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu Odds
Cub Swanson: +190 | Hakeem Dawodu: -250
In the men’s featherweight division, Cub Swanson takes on Hakeem Dawodu as a +190 underdog in the co-main event. Swanson lost his most recent fight via knockout at the hands of Jonathan Martinez in October of last year. Dawodu also lost his last fight to Julian Erosa via unanimous decision last September.
Swanson has a diverse mixed martial arts background, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but also often looking to his striking. Inside the Octagon, Swanson lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.73. On the mat, he averages 1.09 takedowns per bout while defending them at 61%. Swanson now has a 28-13 professional record with 13 knockouts and four submissions. In defeat, Swanson has been knocked out three times and submitted seven times. With Dawodu on the other side, Swanson’s primary worry should be damaging strikes. Luckily, Swanson has 60% striking defense, which has been tested often recently. Swanson has been knocked out in two of his last three fights.
Dawodu has a 13-3 professional record. He has seven knockouts and just one finish loss, which came via submission. Dawodu lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.15. He is defending strikes at 57%, so Dawodu should be more worried about the takedown. He only defends takedowns at 65%, where Swanson theoretically has an advantage.
At this point in his career, Swanson has struggled against the superior fighters in this division. While Dawodu has a stronger win/loss record, most of his fights came against the bottom of the division. The biggest question for Swanson will be durability and his willingness to pursue takedowns. A true standup war favors Dawodu, and Swanson’s reluctance to shoot takedowns in recent bouts raises major concerns. For those reasons, Dawodu at -250 will be the official pick.
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos Odds
Vicente Luque: +100 | Rafael dos Anjos: -120
Moving to the main event, Vicente Luque takes on Rafael dos Anjos as a +100 underdog. After previously making a run in the men’s welterweight division, Luque has now dropped two straight. Concerningly, Geoff Neal knocked out Luque last time out in August of 2022. Meanwhile, dos Anjos is fresh off a submission win over Bryan Barberena in December of 2022.
Luque has lethal skills on the feet and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu on the ground. He has a 21-9-1 professional record with 11 knockouts and eight submissions. Luque has only been knocked out once and submitted twice in his career. He lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.51. He also scores 0.51 takedowns per bout while defending them at 61%. Most concerningly, Luque has been in multiple striking wars at this point. After suffering his first career knockout loss to Neal, Luque only recently received clearance to fight due to brain bleeding. Dos Anjos does a lot of his best work on the ground, but that kind of damage should be a concern for any fighter.
dos Anjos specializes in ground attacks, but he has also developed a well-rounded game. He is 32-14, and he has five knockouts and 11 submissions. Dos Anjos has been knocked out four times in his career. In the UFC, he averages 3.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.21. On the mat, he averages 2.05 takedowns per bout while defending them at 59%. With some of the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC, dos Anjos will often invite ground attacks so he can work his superior grappling.
Luque should have an advantage on the feet, while dos Anjos has superior ground attacks. Luque does have decent takedown defense and the ability to defend dos Anjos’ submission attempts. Since he is reportedly 100%, Luque should find success against dos Anjos on the feet. With dos Anjos showing some vulnerabilities on the feet recently as well, Luque is worth a sprinkle at the underdog price of +100.
