The UFC stays in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson-Bobby Green. This card also features Joe Pyfer taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan in the co-main event. Leading up to UFC Fight Night, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Dawson-Green card.
UFC Fight Night Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
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Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Montana De La Rosa vs. J.J. Aldrich Odds
Montana De La Rosa: -140 | J.J. Aldrich: +115
Kicking off this UFC fight night, Montana De La Rosa fights J.J. Aldrich as a -140 favorite in the women’s flyweight division. De La Rosa has now dropped two straight fights, including her most recent bout in February at the hands of Tatiana Suarez. Conversely, Aldrich knocked out Na Liang in August after losing her two previous bouts.
De La Rosa enters this fight as the younger, more experienced athlete. She has a 12-8 professional record but sits at 5-4-1 in the UFC. Of her wins, De La Rosa has one knockout and eight submissions on the resume. She has also been knocked out once and submitted twice. De La Rosa has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, evidenced by her eight submissions. She also lands 1.94 takedowns per bout while defending them at 64%. She also lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06.
On the other side, Aldrich has a 12-6 professional record at 31 years old. She has three knockout victories, while she has been knocked out once and submitted twice. Aldrich has a striking background, and she lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.54. Despite the negative striking ratio, her 60% striking defense ranks among the best in the division. On the mat, she averages 0.77 takedowns per bout but only defends them at 65%.
This bout presents a clash of styles between two fighters who have struggled against the elite opponents within the division. De La Rosa should have the advantage on the mat, while Aldrich should have the edge in striking exchanges. Aldrich has also gotten the better of some Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighters like Gillian Robertson, making her an underdog to target at the +115 price tag.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: J.J. Aldrich +115
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Nathan Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca Odds
Nathan Maness: +210 | Mateus Mendonca: -275
Moving to the men’s flyweight division, Nathan Maness takes on Mateus Mendonca as a +210 underdog. Another fighter off two straight losses, Maness most recently lost to Tagir Ulanbekov via submission last November. Mendonca lost his UFC debut to Javid Basharat via decision back in January.
Maness has a 14-3 professional record featuring five knockouts and three submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Maness has struggled with output at times. He averages 1.94 significant strikes while absorbing 4.65. He has been out-struck in every UFC fight except the one against Ulanbekov. On the mat, he lands 0.96 takedowns per bout while defending them at 75%. With that said, superior wrestlers like Ulanbekov and Umar Nurmagomedov have been able to take him down. Most of the negative striking differential came against Nurmagomedov, where he was out-struck 74-2.
Mendonca has a 10-1 record, losing to only Basharat. He has three knockouts and four submissions and has never been finished. Mendonca averages 2.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.27. Most of this came against Basharat, where he was out-landed 95-29. Mendonca does land 1.9 takedowns per bout while defending them at 40%. Basharat also landed three takedowns in that bout.
Ultimately, the odds on this fight are a little long for a prospect making his UFC walk for the second time. With that said, Mendonca should be able to find success pressuring Maness and shooting takedowns. For those looking to shave some odds off the -275 price, look to Mendonca in the prop market later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Mateus Mendonca -275
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Kanako Murata Odds
Vanessa Demopoulos: +280 | Kanako Murata: -375
Taking place in the women’s strawweight division, Vanessa Demopoulos takes on Kanako Murata as a +280 underdog. After three straight wins, Demopoulos most recently lost to Karolina Kowalkiewicz via decision back in May. Murata had an eight-fight winning streak halted by Virna Jandiroba in June of this year.
Demopoulos has a 9-5 professional record featuring one knockout and four submissions, and she has never been finished. Demopoulos was a late starter in MMA, but she attempts to implement a well-rounded game plan. She lands 0.58 takedowns per bout behind 13% accuracy. On the feet, she lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.61. Her poor defense has been a major issue in the Octagon, as she defends opposing strikes at 43% and takedowns at 50%.
Murata has a 12-2 record with two knockouts and four submissions. In defeat, she has been knocked out and submitted once each. Murata has a wrestling base, and she lands 2.40 takedowns per bout while never having to defend one in the UFC. On the feet, Murata lands 2.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.60. Despite coming in with less UFC experience, Murata has some notable wins outside the promotion, including Emily Ducote in her third-most recent fight.
Neither fighter has elite striking skills. However, Murata has developed an elite wrestling game, starting from a young age. She should find success on the ground against Demopoulos and take home a victory. Murata via decision could also be interesting later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Kanako Murata -375, Look to Decision Prop Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Aoriqileng vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. Odds
Aoriqileng: -110 | Johnny Munoz Jr.: -110
In the men’s bantamweight division, Aoriqileng faces Johnny Munoz Jr. as a -110 pick’em. Aoriqileng lost his most recent fight via knockout to Aiemann Zahabi in June after rattling off two victories prior. Munoz lost his most recent fight via decision at the hands of Daniel Santos in June as well.
Aoriqileng has a 24-10 record with eight knockouts and one submission. In defeat, he has been knocked out once and submitted twice. Aoriqileng has a striking background, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.12 behind 48% striking defense. On the mat, he averages 1.53 takedowns per bout while defending them at 55%. Wrestling has been his demise on multiple occasions, including against Cody Durden and Jay Perrin in two of his more recent fights.
Munoz has a 12-3 record with two knockouts and seven submissions. He has only been finished once, which came via knockout at the hands of Tony Gravely. Munoz has a grappling background, where he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Inside the Octagon, he lands 1.95 takedowns per bout and defends them at just 42%. Oftentimes, he will welcome takedowns from opponents in order to work his own ground game. On the feet, Munoz lands 3.00 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.59 behind 59% striking defense.
Munoz should have the superior ground game. He also has solid enough striking defense to avoid the big shots of Aoriqileng on the feet. As long as Munoz can earn some takedowns in this bout, he should pay off his -110 price tag.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Johnny Munoz Jr. -110
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita Odds
Karolina Kowalkiewicz: -160 | Diana Belbita: +130
In another women’s strawweight bout, Karolina Kowalkiewicz fights Diana Belbita as a -160 favorite. After five straight losses against the top of the division, Kowalkiewicz has now strung together three straight victories, including a decision win over Vanessa Demopoulos in May. On the other side, Belbita also enters this bout fresh off a win over Maria Oliveira back in June.
Kowalkiewicz has experienced a late-career resurgence. Her latest three wins put her overall record at 15-7 with one knockout and three submission victories. In defeat, she has been knocked out once and submitted twice. However, all of those came against the best fighters in the division. Most recently, she dropped bouts to Alexa Grasso, Xiaonan Yan, and Jessica Penne prior to her victories. Kowalkiewicz has a striking background, landing 5.65 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.47 behind 58% striking defense. She only lands 0.31 takedowns per bout, but she also defends them at 76%.
Belbita has a 15-7 professional record at age 27. She has six knockouts and four submissions, but she has also been submitted four times. Belbita has a diverse mixed martial arts background, but she also does her best work striking. In the UFC, she lands 6.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.72. On the mat, she lands 0.72 takedowns per bout and has 66% takedown defense. Notably, she has a four-inch height and reach advantage in this bout.
Despite her advanced age, Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down. She has also faced significantly more difficult competition. A bet on Kowalkiewicz is a bet on Belbita not making significant improvements since she last fought in June.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz -160
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo Odds
Alexander Hernandez: +115 | Bill Algeo: -140
Moving to the men’s featherweight division, Alexander Hernandez takes on Bill Algeo as +115 underdog. After a pair of losses, Hernandez found a victory over Jim Miller via decision back in February. Algeo won his most recent fight over T.J. Brown via submission back in April.
Hernandez has a 14-6 professional record featuring six knockouts and two submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out three times and submitted once. Most of these losses came against the top of the featherweight division in the UFC. Hernandez has a wrestling background but has developed into a well-rounded fighter. In the Octagon, he lands 1.38 takedowns per bout while defending them at 63%. On the feet, Hernandez lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53. Despite the 56% striking defense, Hernandez has been susceptible to the larger shots from opponents on numerous occasions.
Algeo is 34 with a 17-7 record. He has four knockouts and seven submissions on the profile while losing via submission just twice. Algeo also has a wrestling background, but he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. In the UFC, he only scores 0.87 takedowns per bout while defending them at 55%, and he lands 5.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.32.
Hernandez has the more difficult strength of schedule, but he has routinely fallen short in those bouts. Algeo also has the skill set to neutralize Hernandez’s strengths and potentially take advantage on the feet. He will also weaponize his cardio, which can help win rounds. At -140, Algeo will be the official pick.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Bill Algeo -140
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba Odds
Philipe Lins: +125 | Ion Cutelaba: -150
In the men’s light heavyweight division, Philipe Lins fights Ion Cutelaba as a +125 underdog. Lins now enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak after moving to light heavyweight. Most recently, he defeated Maxim Grishin via decision in June. Cutelaba earned a knockout victory over Tanner Boser back in April.
Lins has a 17-5 professional record featuring nine knockouts and four submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out four times. Lins is now 3-0 at light heavyweight after starting his UFC career 0-2 at heavyweight. Lins bring a well-rounded skill set into the cage, including a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 1.55 takedowns per bout and has 100% takedown defense. On the feet, he averages 3.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.73. That said, his biggest weakness has been an inability to avoid big shots at points in his career.
Cutelaba has a 17-9 record with 13 knockouts and two submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out three times and submitted four. Cutelaba has a 6-8-1 record in the UFC, and he has a wrestling background, evidenced by his 4.75 takedown average. He also defends them at 77%, only getting taken down by the division’s best wrestlers. On the feet, he lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.29. Cutelaba is known as a reckless fighter and often fails to avoid treacherous positions both on the feet and the mat.
Cutelaba has fought considerably more difficult competition. While he has a losing record in the UFC, these losses came against the best of the best in the division. Cutelaba also has a well-rounded skill set, which should be enough to overwhelm the aging Lins at -150.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Ion Cutelaba -150
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn Odds
Drew Dober: -450 | Ricky Glenn: +340
An all-action lightweight bout, Drew Dober takes on Ricky Glenn as a -450 favorite. After three straight victories, Dober lost his most recent fight to Matt Frevola via knockout back in May. Glenn lost his last bout against Christos Giagos by knockout in April.
Dober has a 26-12 professional record featuring 13 knockouts and six submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out twice and submitted four times. He has a diverse mixed martial arts background, including Muay Thai and wrestling. In the Octagon, Dober lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.50. On the mat, Dober also lands 0.69 takedowns per bout while defending them at 56%. The takedowns have been a weakness to this point, contributing to two of his last three losses against Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell. However, his skills fall short only against the division’s elite.
Glenn has a 22-7 record with 13 knockouts and three submissions on the profile, and he has been knocked out once and submitted twice. Glenn also has a well-rounded skill set but does most of his work on the feet. He averages 3.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.92. On the mat, Glenn lands 0.56 takedowns per bout while defending them at 68%. He has faced weaker competition, however.
Dober enters the week with a prohibitive price tag, but he deserves to be the favorite with the more well-rounded skill set after fighting superior competition. For those looking to shave some odds off Dober, look to knockout props later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Drew Dober -450, Look to Knockout Props Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds
Alex Morono: +145 | Joaquin Buckley: -175
Moving to the men’s welterweight division, Alex Morono battles Joaquin Buckley as a +145 underdog. After a loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio last December, Morono rebounded with a submission win over Tim Means in May. Buckley rebounded from a December loss with a knockout win over Andre Fialho in May of this year.
Morono has a 23-8 professional record featuring six knockouts and seven submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out thrice. His diverse martial arts background includes a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and kickboxing. Morono lands 5.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 4.14, and he scores 0.29 takedowns per bout while defending them at 50%. His level of competition leaves a little bit to be desired, but Morono has answered most questions in the UFC, going 5-1 in his last six fights.
Buckley has a 16-6 professional record featuring 12 knockouts. In defeat, he has been knocked out four times. Buckley generally prefers to stand and trade, and he lands 3.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.42, but he has a wrestling background. On the mat, he averages 1.43 takedowns on average with 66% takedown defense.
Both fighters have skills on the feet and the ground with a solid level of competition. Buckley will have a four-inch reach advantage, but he has yet to face a submission artist like Morono. Morono also has solid defense across the board, which makes him a live underdog at +145.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Alex Morono +145
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Odds
Joe Pyfer: -340 | Abdul Razak Alhassan: +340
The co-main event, Joe Pyfer takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan as a -450 favorite in the men’s middleweight division. The winner of four straight, Pyfer most recently knocked out Gerald Meerschaert in April of this year. Alhassan defeated Claudio Ribeiro by knockout in January.
Pyfer has an 11-2 record, highlighted by eight knockouts and two submissions. He has one loss by knockout and one by submission to this point. His most recent loss to Dustin Stoltzfus came via injury. Pyfer lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.64. On the mat, Pyfer averages 1.65 takedowns per bout while defending them at 50%. It is difficult to evaluate Pyfer, with three of his four fights under the UFC banner ending early in the first round.
Alhassan enters this bout with a 12-5 record. All 12 of his victories came via knockout, and he has only been knocked out once. Alhassan lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.02. On the mat, he lands 0.97 takedowns per bout and 52% takedown defense. Alhassan is 2-3 in his last five fights. Oftentimes, Alhassan lacks the output to win decisions, making him reliant on landing a big shot.
While young in his career, Pyfer has displayed sound striking defense to this point. He just needs to avoid the kill shots of Alhassan to earn a victory.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Joe Pyfer -450
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Odds
Grant Dawson: -450 | Bobby Green: +333
The main event is a lightweight division match between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green, with Dawson a -450 favorite. Dawson has never lost in the UFC and most recently rag-dolled Damir Ismagulov for 15 minutes in July. On the other side, Green submitted a washed-up Tony Ferguson back in July as well.
Dawson has a 20-1-1 professional record featuring four knockouts and 13 submissions. His only loss came via knockout to Hugh Pulley outside the UFC in 2016. Other than that, he fought to a draw against Ricky Glenn back in 2021. Outside of those two bouts, Dawson has steamrolled competition, landing 2.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.22. On the mat, he averages 3.70 takedowns per bout and has 40% takedown. Dawson has some of the best wrestling and submissions in the UFC, making his 40% takedown defense of little concern.
Green has a 30-14 record with 10 knockouts and nine submissions. In defeat, Green has been knocked out four times and submitted twice. Green does his best work standing, landing 6.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67. He does land 1.21 takedowns per bout, but he should be at a major disadvantage on the ground. He has been out-grappled multiple times in the UFC, including against Islam Makhachev back in 2022.
Dawson is the younger fighter and more skilled athlete across the board, and as such he deserves to be a major favorite. Even at -450, Dawson still is a value play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Grant Dawson -450
