The UFC stays in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev-Mateusz Gamrot. This card also features Bryce Mitchell taking on Dan Ige in the co-main event. Leading up to UFC Fight Night, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Fiziev-Gamrot card.
UFC Fight Night Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
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Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal Odds
Montserrat Rendon: +200 | Tamires Vidal: -240
Kicking off the night in the women’s bantamweight division, Montserrat Rendon takes on Tamires Vidal as a +200 underdog. Rendon is a UFC newcomer with a perfect 5-0 record, most recently defeating Brittney Cloudy back in September of last year. Vidal enters this fight fresh off a victory in her UFC debut against Ramona Pascual via flying knee.
At 5-0, all five of Rendon’s victories came by way of decision. Rendon has a grappling background, but she has gotten away from her base in certain fights. Her last fight came in Invicta FC, and her level of competition leaves much to be desired.
Vidal is the younger fighter at just 25 years old. She has a 7-1 record featuring one knockout and two submissions. Her only loss came via submission at the hands of Karol Rosa back in 2019. She has a more difficult strength of schedule, which also features a win over Ailin Perez. That victory came via disqualification, but the level of competition is a little better. Vidal often finds herself in the clinch, but she appears to have a more diverse skill set.
Blindly betting underdogs or fights to reach the judges in low-level women’s MMA has been a profitable endeavor. The official pick will be Rendon for that reason. However, this fight will get nowhere close to the actual betting card outside of some favorable numbers in the prop market later this week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Montserrat Rendon +200
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy Odds
Mizuki Inoue: -275 | Hannah Goldy: +210
Moving to the women’s strawweight division, Mizuki Inoue battles Hannah Goldy as a -275 favorite. Inoue hasn’t appeared in the Octagon since August 2020 when she lost a decision to Amanda Lemos. Goldy enters this fight fresh off a highlight knockout loss to Molly McCann back in July of 2022.
Inoue has a 14-6 professional record featuring nine submissions, and she has never been finished. Inoue split her UFC fights, defeating Wu Yanan but losing to Lemos. Her long layoff came as a result of a torn ACL. Inoue has a kickboxing background, but she has developed some serious grappling credentials behind those nine submissions. She has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, but her aggression is evidenced by 5.00 significant strikes landed per minute and 5.87 absorbed. Her regional schedule is also dotted with UFC veterans like Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Alexa Grasso and Virna Jandiroba.
Goldy is 6-3 in her career with one knockout and one submission victory. Her one knockout loss came via spinning elbow from McCann. Goldy has a boxing and Muay Thai background. She lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.95. However, she has a weakness on the mat, defending takedowns at a 55% clip. She only lands 0.56 takedowns on average. Goldy has also stumbled against weaker competition, putting her at 1-3 inside the UFC.
While Inoue has yet to show it inside the UFC, she should have a considerable grappling advantage in this fight. Inoue also has all of the credentials to stand and trade with a fighter like Goldy. Ultimately, the -275 odds make sense, but a submission prop could provide better odds later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Mizuki Inoue -275, Look to Submission Props Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier Odds
Mohammed Usman: -150 | Jake Collier: +125
Mohammed Usman draws Jake Collier as a -150 favorite. Usman is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Zac Pauga and Junior Tafa. Collier will fight for his roster spot after three straight losses, most recently dropping a decision to Martin Buday back in April.
Usman has a 9-2 professional record featuring four knockouts and two submissions. He has only been finished once, which came via submission to Brandon Sayles in the PFL. Usman prefers to grapple, averaging 1.46 takedowns per bout and 15% accuracy. He has never faced a takedown attempt in the UFC, as he generally has superior grappling credentials. On the feet, he lands 0.92 significant strikes per minute while eating 2.62. Usman has significant strength of schedule concerns, but his opponent does as well.
Collier has a 13-9 professional record highlighted by five knockouts and four submissions. He has now been knocked out four times and submitted once. His durability has been decent in the UFC, and Collier has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, but he only lands 0.79 takedowns per bout. On the feet, he lands 5.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.01. Collier has been in three close fights in his last three. He has only been out-landed 243-238 but dropped two decisions. Collier also was knocked out by Chris Barnett, but he scored a knockdown prior to the loss.
While this is a low-level heavyweight fight, Collier has the skills to test Usman on the feet and the mat. Usman has superior wrestling, but Collier has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu to put Usman in tricky positions. He also has enough standup power to trade with Usman on the feet.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Jake Collier +125
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage Odds
Jacob Malkoun: -450 | Cody Brundage: +340
Pivoting to the men’s middleweight division, Jacob Malkoun takes on Cody Brundage as a -450 favorite. Now 3-2 in the UFC, Malkoun most recently defeated Nick Maximov via decision in October of last year. Brundage has dropped three straight and lost a decision to Sedriques Dumas in June of this year.
Malkoun has a 7-2 record with two knockout victories on the profile. He has only been knocked out once, which came against Phil Hawes in his UFC debut. Malkoun began his fighting career with boxing but has developed a dangerous skill set. He lands 3.70 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.64. On the mat, he lands an absurd 7.46 takedowns on average. He has 0% takedown defense, but he has only faced two attempts. Brendan Allen successfully took him to the mat twice, but no one else has attempted this feat. Malkoun works as a jiu-jitsu instructor in his free time.
Brundage has an 8-5 record with four knockout wins and three submissions. He has been knocked out twice and submitted once, which all came under the UFC banner. Brundage typically looks to wrestle, evidenced by his 2.42 takedown average and 73% takedown defense. On the feet, he lands 1.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.18. He does have a pair of interesting victories, including Dalcha Lungiambula and Tresean Gore. However, neither has lived up to expectations in the UFC, and Brundage lost three straight following those wins.
Malkoun deserves to be a large betting favorite. With that said, the odds may have gone too far for a dangerous fighter in Brundage. Malkoun will still be the official pick, but rather than play the -450, the prop market may offer better returns later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Look to Malkoun Props Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho Odds
Tim Means: +165 | Andre Fialho: -200
In the welterweight division, Tim Means fights Andre Fialho as a +165 underdog. Despite a long UFC career, Means has now dropped three straight fights in the UFC. This includes a submission loss to Alex Morono back in May of this year. Fialho lost three straight fights, capped off by a knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley in May as well.
Means has a 32-15-1-1 professional record at 39 years of age. He has 19 knockouts and five submissions. In defeat, he has been knocked out twice and submitted seven times. Means has a boxing background and typically prefers to strike. He lands 4.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.61 behind 61% striking defense. Means also averages 1.21 takedowns per bout and has 65% defense. Means has at least two takedowns in each of his last three fights. However, he has been submitted in two of those, so perhaps he will change the game plan.
Fialho has been one of the most active UFC fighters in recent years. He has a 16-7 professional record with 13 wins coming by knockouts. He has also been knocked out five times in his career, including his last three fights inside one calendar year. Fialho lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.59. He has never landed a takedown and only defends them at 60%. Despite his younger age, Fialho has displayed significant durability concerns to this point in his career.
Both fighters have significant weaknesses — Means is past his prime, and Fialho continues to get knocked out. Aside from the durability, Fialho doesn’t have much of a ground game. Means has recently put on the wrestling shoes, which could be his cleanest path to victory. At +165, Means makes sense as an underdog play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Tim Means +165
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Dan Argueta vs. Miles Johns Odds
Dan Argueta: -165 | Miles Johns: +135
An interesting bout in the men’s bantamweight division, Dan Argueta battles Miles Johns as a -165 favorite. Argueta’s last fight ended in a no-contest after a controversy with the referee. Prior to that, he defeated Nick Aguirre via decision back in January. Johns most recently beat Vince Morales via decision in November of last year.
Argueta has a 9-1-1 professional record featuring two knockouts and four submissions. In his no-contest against Ronnie Lawrence, Argueta had Lawrence in a mounted guillotine, but the referee mistook a random hand motion for a tap. Replay confirmed the early stoppage, resulting in a no-contest. Argueta has a wrestling background, evidenced by his 2.78 takedown average. He only defends takedowns at 50%, but Damon Jackson is the only fighter to take him down in the UFC. On the feet, he averages 2.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.45.
At 29 years of age, Johns has a 9-2 professional record with four knockouts and two submissions. In defeat, Johns was knocked out and submitted once apiece. Johns also has a wrestling background, but he only lands 0.86 takedowns per bout. He does have 92% takedown defense, which could make wrestling difficult for Argueta. On the feet, he lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.85 behind 69% striking defense. Johns has also fought significantly more difficult competition. His losses in the UFC came against John Castaneda and Mario Bautista.
Johns checks almost every box. He has the wrestling pedigree to compete with Argueta. Johns also has the superior strength of schedule and the striking chops to handle Argueta on the feet. The +135 underdog price doesn’t make much sense, making Johns one of the top values on the card.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Miles Johns +135
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Ricardo Ramos vs. Charles Jourdain Odds
Ricardo Ramos: +115 | Charles Jourdain: -140
Heading to the men’s featherweight division, Ricardo Ramos takes on Charles Jourdain as a +115 underdog this weekend. Ramos has been trading wins and losses of late, most recently getting knocked out Danny Chavez via spinning back elbow in June of last year. Jourdain defeated Kron Gracie by decision back in May.
Ramos has a 16-4 record with four knockouts and seven submissions, and he has been knocked out twice and submitted once. Ramos has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, and he lands 2.58 takedowns on average. His 72% takedown defense also stands up to most in the division. On the feet, Ramos lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.82 behind 57% defense. Ramos has a decent level of competition, but he stumbled a few times against Lerone Murphy and most recently Zubaira Tukhugov in his last four fights.
Jourdain has a 14-6 record with eight knockouts and four submissions. He has only been submitted one time, which came against Julian Erosa in 2021. Jourdain has a diverse mixed martial arts background, which includes a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. In the Octagon, he lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30 behind 57% striking defense. Despite his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Jourdain only averages 0.1 takedowns per bout while defending them at 48%. Takedowns have posed a problem for Jourdain in the past and could again.
Ultimately, both fighters have solid strengths of schedule and well-rounded skills. Despite Jourdain’s black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Ramos should have ground advantages. Both fighters can hold their own on the feet, but Jourdain will throw with more volume. If Ramos can get this fight to the mat, he should have a good chance to pay off his +115 betting tag.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Ricardo Ramos +115
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Bryan Battle vs. A.J. Fletcher Odds
Bryan Battle: -175 | A.J. Fletcher: +145
Moving back to the men’s welterweight division, Bryan Battle takes on A.J. Fletcher as a -175 favorite. An Ultimate Fighter alum, Battle now has a 4-1 UFC record, capped off by a knockout over Gabe Green last time out. Fletcher submitted Themba Gorimbo in his most recent bout.
Battle has a 9-2 professional record featuring three knockouts and four submissions. He has only been finished once, which came in his second pro fight. In the UFC, Battle lands 4.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.00. Battle does have 40% striking defense, which can leave him open to big shots on the feet. On the mat, Battle averages just 0.79 takedowns per bout while defending them at 38%. Most of this came against Rinat Fakhretdinov, who landed seven takedowns in that fight.
Fletcher will cede three inches in height and 10 inches in reach to Battle. Still only 26, he has a 10-2 record with four knockouts and five submissions. Fletcher has a wrestling base, landing 1.92 takedowns per bout and defending them at 28%. On the feet, he lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.59. Fletcher also has a much weaker strength of schedule, defeating only Gorimbo within the UFC.
The size advantages for Battle should come into play. Battle already has edges on the feet, and the size should only increase that. This should also help him maintain distance and avoid the takedowns from Fletcher.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Bryan Battle -175
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez Odds
Marina Rodriguez: -275 | Michelle Watson-Gomez: +220
Back to the women’s strawweight division, Marina Rodriguez takes on Michelle Waterson-Gomez as a -275 favorite. After rattling off four straight wins, Rodriguez has now lost two straight to Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. Waterson-Gomes is 1-5 in her last six fights, most recently losing a split decision to Luana Pinheiro back in April.
Rodriguez has a 16-3 professional record featuring six knockouts and one submission. She has only been knocked out once, which came against Lemos in her second-most recent fight. Rodriguez has a Muay Thai background, landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.94. One the mat, she only lands 0.17 takedowns per bout while defending them at 64%. This has been her downfall in multiple fights, including her most recent bout against Jandiroba.
Waterson-Gomez has an 18-11 professional record featuring three knockouts and nine submissions. In defeat, she has been knocked out once and submitted four times. She lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.01. On the mat, she lands 1.40 takedowns per bout and has 72% takedown defense. It should be noted that these two previously fought in 2021, with Rodriguez winning via decision. Rodriguez out-landed Waterson-Gomez 125-88 and only allowed one takedown.
With Rodriguez already earning a victory in this matchup, backing her again makes sense. She went on to defeat fighters like Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan, while Waterson-Gomez stumbled every step of the way. Rodriguez via decision could help reduce the long odds as well.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Marina Rodriguez -275, Look to Decision Props Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Odds
Bryce Mitchell: -175 | Dan Ige: +145
Bryce Mitchell faces Dan Ige as a -175 favorite. After six straight wins, Mitchell finally met defeat against Ilia Topuria, losing via submission in Round 2. Ige now has back-to-back wins after previously losing three straight between 2021 and 2022. Last time out, he earned a decision over Nate Landwehr in June.
Mitchell has a 15-1 professional record featuring nine submission wins. Mitchell has a high-level grappling background, evidenced by a 3.26-takedown average. Mitchell only defends takedowns at 33%, but fighters rarely take this approach due to the strength of his ground game. On the feet, Mitchell lands 2.48 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.71 behind 57% striking defense.
Ige has a 17-6 record, five knockouts and five submissions and has never been finished. Ige typically prefers to strike, but he also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.69. Ige also averages 1.15 takedowns per bout while defending them at 56%. Superior wrestlers like Chan Sung Jung and Movsar Evloev have been able to control Ige in the past, which presents his biggest challenge.
Ige’s wins typically come against fighters who are willing to stand and trade with him. Mitchell actually has the striking defense to avoid big shots from Ige and the ground game to earn a victory over time.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Bryce Mitchell -175
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds
Rafael Fiziev: -155 | Mateusz Gamrot: +125
Rafael Fiziev takes on Mateusz Gamrot as a -155 favorite. After winning six straight fights, Fiziev lost a decision to Justin Gaethje in March of this year. Gamrot lost a decision to Beneil Dariush in October last year before bouncing back with a split-decision victory over Jalin Tuner in March.
Fiziev has a 12-2 professional record featuring eight knockouts and one submission. He has a striking background, but he has multiple tools to utilize in the Octagon. He lands 5.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.17 behind 48% striking defense. Fiziev only averages 0.31 takedowns per bout, but he defends them at 90% overall. Still, he has yet to face a wrestler of Gamrot’s caliber.
Gamrot has a 22-2 professional record with seven knockouts and five submissions. Gamrot has an elite wrestling background, evidenced by his 4.54 takedowns per bout and 90% takedown defense. On the feet, Gamrot lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.23 behind 60% striking defense. Gamrot has been able to take down some of the elite grapplers in the division like Dariush, which makes this a particularly interesting matchup against Fiziev’s elite takedown defense.
Gamrot has a more well-rounded skill set. An elite grappler, Gamrot will have the best chance to take down Fiziev out of any of his previous opponents. Gamrot also stays disciplined on the feet, which should help avoid the bigger shots coming his way.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Mateusz Gamrot +125
