The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2. This card also features Kevin Holland taking on Jack Della Maddalena in the co-main event. Leading up to UFC Fight Night, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for the Grasso-Shevchenko card.
UFC Fight Night Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
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Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann Odds
Josefine Knutsson: -435 | Marnic Mann: +330
Kicking off this UFC Fight Night, Josefine Knutsson battles Marnic Mann in the women’s strawweight division as a -435 favorite. Originally scheduled to face Iasmin Lucindo, Knutsson now welcomes Mann on a little more than a week’s notice. Knutsson most recently defeated Isis Verbeek on Dana White’s Contender Series only a few weeks ago. Mann previously fought in the Contender Series as well, but she suffered a knockout loss to Bruna Brasil in September of last year. Since then, she defeated Amber Brown on the regional scene back in April.
Knutsson has a 7-0 record featuring one knockout. She is a former kickboxer with an impressive 27-5 record in that sport. Her limited UFC sample includes 2.90 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.73 behind 62% takedown defense. Interestingly, Knutsson also lands 2.5 takedowns per bout while defending them at 100%. She still has a low level of competition, so expectations should be tempered. However, she draws another low-level fighter.
Mann has a 6-1 professional record with three knockouts and one submission. She has a grappling base, which she somewhat implemented on the Contender Series. She landed three takedowns but surrendered two. Brasil also out-landed Mann 40-19 in the striking exchanges. Both fighters are small for the division, which will be a disadvantage for Mann specifically in future fights.
Neither fighter has much MMA experience. If Knutsson can keep this fight standing, she should have a clear edge. However, Mann appears to have the advantage in wrestling exchanges. Sprinkling Mann at +330 makes sense. For those looking elsewhere, blinding betting low-level women’s MMA to reach a decision should always be considered, but this fight should not be near the top of betting cards.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Marnic Mann +330, Fight to Reach a Decision Odds Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Alex Reyes vs. Charlie Campbell Odds
Alex Reyes: +300 | Charlie Campbell: -400
Moving to the men’s lightweight division, Alex Reyes takes on late replacement Charlie Campbell as a +300 underdog. It is interesting to see the late replacement favored, as Campbell originally lost on the Contender Series via knockout in August of last year. Since then, he knocked out Josh Streacker on the regional scene back in June. Reyes has not fought since he lost via knockout to Mike Perry in 2017.
Now 7-2, Campbell has five knockouts to his name but one knockout loss as well. His lone knockout defeat came at the hands of Chris Duncan after largely dominating the early part of the fight. Campbell out-landed Duncan 16-15 and successfully defended two takedown attempts. He still has questions regarding his strength of schedule to this point, but Campbell appears to have the striking required to hang in the UFC.
Reyes lost the last six years of his career to a spinal infection. He is 13-3 in his career with nine knockouts and four submissions. Reyes has been knocked out twice, including his last fight against Perry. However, that fight came on short notice and up a weight class. Reyes comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. Campbell has been relatively untested on the ground to this point, which should give Reyes a theoretical advantage.
Now that he is past his prime with quality training years taken from him, it is difficult to predict what Reyes will look like in the cage. With that said, he has a ground game to potentially give Campbell problems. This play comes down to price, and -400 is simply too much for Campbell. With the long layoff, it is possible that a better number of pops on Reyes later in the week, but he will be the official play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Alex Reyes +300
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Odds
Tracy Cortez: -125 | Jasmine Jasudavicius: +105
In the women’s flyweight division, Tracy Cortez will fight Jasmine Jasudavicius as a -125 favorite. Cortez has been wildly inactive since her debut, but she currently rides a 10-fight winning streak. Most recently, she defeated Melissa Gatto via decision in May of last year. Jasudavicius has a two-fight winning streak of her own, capped off by a decision win over Miranda Maverick back in June.
Cortez has a 10-1 professional record featuring one knockout and one submission. While Cortez does not have elite finishing ability, she does have a well-rounded skill set. In the Octagon, Cortez lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.32 behind 59% striking defense. On the mat, she averages 2.80 takedowns per bout while defending them at 71%.
Jasudavicius has a 9-2 record, highlighted by two knockouts and one submission victory. Jasudavicius has a wrestling background, evidenced by 2.2 takedowns on average, along with 78% takedown defense. On the feet, Jasudavicius lands 3.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.92 behind 51% striking defense. Jasudavicius has a weaker strength of schedule, but she successfully stepped up in competition against Maverick last time out.
In what projects to be a competitive fight, the decision props should stand out later in the week. On the one hand, Cortez should have a striking advantage, where Jasudavicius still appears somewhat green. Both fighters have a solid ground game, but Jasudavicius has been taken down multiple times as well. For these reasons, Cortez at -125 looks like a solid value.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Tracy Cortez -125, Look to Decision Props Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda Odds
Edgar Chairez: -225 | Daniel Lacerda: +180
In the men’s flyweight division, Edgar Chairez takes on Daniel Lacerda as a -225 favorite. Now 0-1 in the UFC, Chairez lost to Tatsuro Taira via decision in July. Lacerda is also winless in the UFC, most recently losing to C.J. Vergara via knockout in March of this year.
Chairez has a 10-5 professional record featuring four knockouts and six submission victories. Chairez has been submitted twice, with both coming on the regional scene. He is big for the division and has missed weight in the past. Despite the six submission wins, Chairez has struggled against ground attacks in the UFC. Chairez allowed three takedowns and over four minutes of control time on the Contender Series. Taira also controlled Chairez for almost 10 minutes, making this a significant weakness for Chairez. Along with his 44% takedown defense, Chairez has not really been able to display his striking skills.
Lacerda has an 11-5 record featuring five knockouts and six submissions. In his losses he has been knocked out four times and submitted once. He has fought decent competition in the UFC, but he has been finished in all of those bouts. He lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 9.76 behind 34% striking defense. Lacerda also averages 1.52 takedowns per bout while never facing a takedown attempt. With most fighters able to out-strike Lacerda, there has not been much need to test his ground game.
Both fighters have significant weaknesses in this bout. At +180, backing Lacerda’s ground advantage is intriguing. He has not experienced much success on the ground to this point, but Chairez should be an easier opponent than his previous foes.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Daniel Lacerda +180
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd Odds
Roman Kopylov: -275 | Josh Fremd: +225
Moving to the men’s middleweight division, Roman Kopylov takes on Josh Fremd as a +225 underdog. Originally scheduled as Chris Curtis vs. Alexander Hernandez, both fighters accepted this bout on semi-short notice. Kopylov enters this fight off three straight victories, including a highlight knockout win over Claudio Ribeiro in July of this year. Fremd comes off two straight wins, including a decision victory over Jamie Pickett on Aug. 12.
Kopylov is 11-2 in his career, with 10 victories coming via knockout. Among his two losses, Kopylov has only been submitted once. This came against Karl Roberson in his UFC debut. Kopylov is a pure striker who lands 4.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.15 behind 59% striking defense. Kopylov only lands 0.56 takedowns per bout, but he defends them at 90%. In the UFC, he has only been taken down twice, facing solid competition along the way.
Fremd has an 11-4 professional record featuring four knockouts and four submissions. Among his losses, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Fremd has a wrestling background, but he only lands 1.03 takedowns per bout and has 31% takedown defense. Most of that came against Anthony Hernandez in his UFC debut, where he allowed eight takedowns. On the feet, he lands 2.72 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.10 behind 50% striking defense. Fremd does have more high-level experience, including an LFA loss to Gregory Rodrigues. However, he has also lost fights to Hernandez and Tresean Gore.
Kopylov should have a striking advantage in this bout, while Fremd theoretically has the edge on the mat. With that said, Kopylov’s elite takedown defense should thwart the attempts coming from Fremd. Even at -275, Kopylov is the official play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Roman Kopylov -275
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Loopy Godinez vs. Elise Reed Odds
Loopy Godinez: -450 | Elise Reed: +340
Taking place in the women’s strawweight division, Loopy Godinez fights Elise Reed as a -450 favorite. Now 5-3 in the UFC, Godinez most recently defeated Emily Ducote via decision back in May. Reed has traded wins and losses in the UFC. Last time out, she defeated Jinh Yu Frey via decision back in June.
Godinez is 10-3 in her career with one knockout and one submission victory. She has a grappling background, evidenced by her 3.43 takedown average. She also defends takedowns at 81%, making this the strongest part of her game. Her striking is decent as well, landing 4.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 behind 62% striking defense. Now 4-1 in her five most recent fights, Godinez only lost to Angela Hill in that span. Interestingly, Godinez out-landed Hill 92-85 in that bout.
Reed has a striking background, with a 7-3 professional record featuring two knockout wins. Among her losses, she has been knocked out twice and submitted once. All of these losses came in the UFC against Sijara Eubanks, Sam Hughes and Loma Lookboonmee. Despite her background, Reed has a negative striking differential. She only lands 2.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14. Reed also has grappling deficiencies, evidenced by her 50% takedown defense. Both of these defensive weaknesses project as major concerns against Godinez.
As the more well-rounded fighter in almost every area, Godinez’s -450 price tag makes sense. For those looking to avoid the juice, look to Godinez via decision later in the week.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Loopy Godinez -450, Look to Godinez by Decision Later in Week
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Odds
Fernando Padilla: -250 | Kyle Nelson: +200
In the men’s featherweight division, Fernando Padilla takes on Kyle Nelson as a -250 favorite to kick off the main card. Now 1-0 in the UFC, Padilla knocked out Julian Erosa in the first round back in April, while Nelson earned a decision victory last time out against Blake Bilder in June of this year.
Padilla has an impressive 15-4 professional record featuring five knockouts and eight submissions. He has some solid regional fights under his belt, including Dan Ige, Darrick Minner and former UFC fighter Spike Carlyle. Padilla does not have much of a statistical sample to evaluate, but he out-landed Erosa 20-15 before earning a knockdown and the subsequent victory. He appears to have a well-rounded skill set that has held up against quality competition on the regional scene.
Nelson has a 14-5 record with five knockouts and four submissions to his name. In his losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted once. His tenure in the UFC has been especially rocky with a 2-4-1 record, defeating only Bilder and Marco Polo Reyes. With that said, he has fought pretty good competition to this point. Nelson lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.52 behind 48% striking defense. He also averages 1.37 takedowns per bout while defending them at 71%.
This should be one of the more competitive fights on the card, but the odds do not see it that way. Padilla is the rightful favorite, but -250 is too wide a margin. For that reason, playing Nelson at +200 has some value.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Kyle Nelson +200
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos Odds
Daniel Zellhuber: -275 | Christos Giagos: +210
Back to the men’s lightweight division, Daniel Zellhuber fights Christos Giagos as a -275 favorite. Now 1-1 in the UFC, Zellhuber most recently defeated Lando Vannata via decision in April. Giagos, meanwhile, enters this fight off a victory over Ricky Glenn in April as well.
Zellhuber has a 13-1 professional record featuring seven knockouts and two submissions. His only loss came in his UFC debut against Trey Ogden via decision. Zellhuber has a striking background, and he lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.84. On the mat, he only averages 0.33 takedown per bout, but the defends them at 91% to this point. Zellhuber also has a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over Giagos in this bout.
Giagos has a 20-10 professional record, highlighted by eight knockouts and four submissions. Among his losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted five times since debuting in 2014. Most of these losses came against the top of the division, including Gilbert Burns, Charles Oliveira, Drakkar Klose, Arman Tsarukyan and Thiago Moises. Inside the cage, he averages 2.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.85. Giagos does some of his best work on the ground, averaging 3.16 takedowns per minute while defending them at 52%. Despite the size disadvantage, Giagos has a major experience edge.
Ultimately, Zellhuber has not faced an opponent of Giagos’ quality to this point. His 91% takedown defense stands up to the bottom of the division, but Giagos presents a significant increase in competition. Giagos at +210 is another solid underdog play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Christos Giagos +210
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell Odds
Raul Rosas Jr.: -540 | Terrence Mitchell: +360
In the men’s bantamweight division, Raul Rosas Jr. faces Terrance Mitchell as a -550 favorite. Coming off the first loss of his career, Rosas fell to Christian Rodriguez via unanimous decision in April. Mitchell lost his most recent fight via knockout at the hands of Cameron Saaiman back in July.
Rosas is just 18 years old and has a 7-1 professional record. He has a grappling background, evidenced by five submission victories. Inside the UFC, he lands 3.67 takedowns on average with 33% accuracy. Rosas has not successfully defended a takedown yet, but he welcomes the ground attacks of opponents. On the feet he lands just 0.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.37 behind 40% striking defense. Ultimately, he is a one-dimensional fighter to this point, which will give him problems against better opponents. With that said, his youth does give him the ability to expand his game between fights.
Mitchell has a 14-3 professional record featuring eight knockouts and six submissions. Mitchell appears to have a more well-rounded skill set, but the recent knockout loss leaves concerns. Saaiman out-landed Mitchell 18-3 and took him down twice before earning the knockout. Mitchell’s level of competition prior to the UFC also looks suspect after fighting out of the Alaskan promotions.
The price at -550 is absurd for such a green, one-dimensional fighter. However, there is also a good chance that Mitchell just is not a UFC-caliber talent either. This one will not make the betting card, but Rosas via submission would be the official pick.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Pass, but Rosas Via Submission if Forced to Choose
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds
Kevin Holland: +105 | Jack Della Maddalena: -125
In the co-main event, Kevin Holland fights Jack Della Maddalena as a +105 underdog in the men’s welterweight division. Now riding a two-fight winning streak, Holland most recently submitted Michael Chiesa on July 29. Della Maddalena preserved a 15-fight winning streak with a split-decision victory over UFC newcomer Bassil Hafez on July 15 of this year.
Now 25-9 in his career, Holland has been one of the most active UFC fighters over the last three years. His victories include 14 knockouts and seven submissions. Holland is known for his striking, landing 4.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.96. Once a liability on the ground, Holland has gone to great lengths to improve its grappling. Holland now lands 0.83 takedowns per bout while defending takedowns at 53%. However, he has not been taken down in any of his last three fights, including against a premier wrestler in Chiesa last time out. Since 2021, he has only lost to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson.
Like Holland, Della Maddalena is known primarily as a striker. Now 15-2 in his career, Della Maddalena has 11 knockouts and two submission wins to his name. In the UFC, he lands 7.27 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.50 behind 69% striking defense. On the mat, Della Maddalena averages just 0.36 takedowns while defending them at 81%. Della Maddalena has fought the weaker competition, which includes a competitive fight against a newcomer last time out. Della Maddalena also surrendered three takedowns in that fight, which could indicate a ground advantage for Holland. Additionally, Della Maddalena will cede four inches in height and eight inches in reach to Holland.
With Holland facing the tougher opponents to this point, this will be a decent step up in competition for Della Maddalena. Holland also appears to have a ground advantage to match a striking profile on par with Della Maddalena. For those reasons, playing the underdog at +105 makes sense.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Kevin Holland +105
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds
Alexa Grasso: +135 | Valentina Shevchenko: -165
Headlining this UFC Fight Night, Valentina Shevchenko takes on Alex Grasso in a title rematch in the women’s flyweight division as a -165 favorite. Shevchenko lost their last fight after winning her nine previous bouts at flyweight. Grasso is the underdog despite the head-to-head victory and a five-fight winning streak of her own.
Shevchenko dominated Grasso until she attempted a spinning attack, leading to her own demise. The spinning strike allowed Grasso to grab her back and find a submission in the fourth round. Known as one of the best strikers in women’s MMA, Shevchenko has a 23-4 record with eight knockouts and seven submissions. Other than Grasso, two of her other losses came up a weight class to Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.99 behind 63% striking defense. However, she has developed a solid ground game, scoring six takedowns over her last two fights. She averages 2.57 takedowns per bout while defending them at 72%. Most recently, she took Grasso down four times, which could be her easiest path to victory.
Grasso also has a striking background. She has a 16-3 professional record featuring four knockouts and a pair of submissions. Her three losses came against Felice Herrig, Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza. Grasso lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.07 behind 59% striking defense. The champion only averages 0.38 takedowns per bout while defending them at 61%. Takedowns have been a major weakness for Grasso, which projects to be the case again.
After winning 90% of their previous fight before an ill-advised spinning attack, Shevchenko has a generous price tag. At only -165, she should be considered one of the top betting values on this card.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Valentina Shevchenko -165
