The UFC stays in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva. This stacked card also features Albert Duraev against Jun Yong Park in the card’s co-main event. Ahead of the event, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets. It then recommends where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport, plus tools like Parlay Builder! Nonetheless, let’s get on with our UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds.
Let’s preview UFC Fight Night with picks and odds for the Holm-Silva card.
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UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds: Holly Holm-Mayra Bueno Silva
Ailin Perez vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith Odds
Ailin Perez: -145 | Ashlee Evans-Smith: +120
Ailin Perez kicks off UFC Fight Night against Ashlee Evans-Smith as a -145 favorite. Perez has one UFC fight under her belt. She lost her debut to Stephanie Egger by submission, putting her official record at 7-2. On the comeback, Evans-Smith returns to the Octagon after nearly three years away. She served a 14-month suspension for a positive drug test within that time. Evans-Smith currently is 3-5 in the UFC and most recently lost to Norma Dumont in November of 2020.
Perez is known primarily for her striking, but she has ground game. Her competition is weak, so it is tough to parse through her statistics. In her first bout, she landed 16 strikes while absorbing 15 behind 31% striking defense. She also landed a takedown but allowed two in the process of getting submitted. In her career, she has four knockouts and one submission in seven professional wins.
Now 36, Evans-Smith will look to right the ship after two straight losses. She works primarily as a striker and has battled the much tougher competition. She lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.69. However, her 55% striking defense looks much sharper than Perez’s. On the ground, she lands 1.1 takedowns per bout at 23% accuracy. Evans-Smith defends them at 66%, meaning this fight likely will play out on the feet. Of her six wins, three have come via knockout.
It is tough to gauge what Evans-Smith will look like after so many years away. Perez has the skills to compete at a UFC level, but she has yet to do so within the Octagon. With Evans-Smith coming in at +120, throwing a dart on the veteran makes the most sense here.
Alex Munoz vs. Carl Deaton Odds
Alex Munoz: -140 | Elves Carl Deaton: +115
Another fighter coming off a long layoff, Alex Munoz will take on Carl Deaton as a -140 favorite. Munoz last made UFC walk in April of 2021. He is 0-2 in the UFC, losing to Nasrat Haqparast and Luis Pena. These were the first two losses of his career, putting his official record at 6-2. Deaton made his UFC debut in February with a submission loss to Joe Solecki. The regional grinder now has a professional record of 17-6.
Munoz comes from a wrestling background, landing three takedowns per bout in the UFC. None of Munoz’s opponents have attempted a takedown against him, but that makes sense given his skills. As a striker, Munoz lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.49. He has been outstruck in each of his last two fights and can struggle when he cannot get fights to the mat. He has two knockouts and one submission among his six victories.
Deaton also comes from a wrestling background but just at the high school level. His first UFC fight was a complete disaster. Deaton landed just one strike after getting taken down immediately and controlled for the entire fight before getting submitted. Deaton has some ground skills, with nine submissions to his name. However, he has been submitted twice and knocked out once in his career.
Honestly, the level of competition is relatively weak for both fighters. With Deaton showing that he can be controlled on the ground, favoring the superior wrestler in Munoz is the best option here. At -140, this price looks decent.
Tyson Nam vs. Azat Maksum Odds
Tyson Nam: +300 | Azat Maksum: -400
An undefeated prospect making his UFC debut, Azat Maksum takes on UFC veteran Tyson Nam as a -400 favorite. Maksum currently is 16-0 after grinding the regional scene. Unlike some undefeated fighters, Maksum has fought some legitimate competition on his way to the UFC. His last eight opponents have a combined record of 63-17. On the other side, Nam enters this fight fresh off a loss to Bruno Silva in March and will look to pull off a monumental upset.
Maksum has a well-rounded skill set. He has five knockout victories and another seven by submission. Maksum also has solid wrestling, which should be a theoretical advantage over Nam here. Nam has never been taken down in the UFC, but he fights entirely as a striker.
Along with never allowing a takedown, Nam has never gotten a takedown in his UFC career. Known for his striking, Nam lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.44. Even at his advanced age, Nam still has clear knockout power, with 13 knockout wins in his career and sleeping Ode Osbourne in his second-most recent fight. It should be noted that Nam has been knocked out three times and sometimes starts slow.
With Maksum’s strong level of competition on the regional scene, he deserves to be a sizable favorite against the UFC veteran. With that said, -400 is slightly inflated. Instead, looking to the prop market later in the week could yield some superior odds, particularly Maksum by submission.
Evan Elder vs. Genaro Valdez Odds
Evan Elder: -300 | Genaro Valdez: +230
Evan Elder takes on Genaro Valdez as a -300 favorite, and both fighters are 0-2 in the UFC. Valdez lost his most recent bouts against Matt Frevola and Natan Levy. Similarly, Elder suffered defeat against Nazim Sadykhov and Preston Parson. Now both of these fighters will look for a victory in hopes of extending their UFC careers.
Elder has a professional record of 7-2. Elder comes from a diverse mixed martial arts background, with the capability to blend multiple disciplines. He lands 3.78 significant strikes while absorbing 5.42. On the ground, he averages 0.59 takedowns with 12% accuracy. Troublingly, he has 28% takedown defense and has allowed five takedowns through two fights. He has four knockouts and one submission among his seven professional victories.
On the other side, Valdez also comes from a diverse background. At 10-2, he has seven knockouts and three submissions. Within the UFC, he lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.63. Much of that came in a beat down at the hands of ranked fighter Frevola. On the ground, he averages 2.5 takedowns per bout at 44% accuracy. However, this has been a weakness at times. Valdez allowed six takedowns to Levy, putting his takedown defense at 40%.
This fight has a chance to get greasy given the body of work from these two fighters. It is hard to back Elder as a -300 favorite over anyone right now, even if his most recent loss came as a result of a doctor’s stoppage. This puts some value on Valdez as a +230 underdog here. However, this fight is as volatile as they come.
Austin Lingo vs. Melquizael Costa Odds
Austin Lingo: +160 | Melquizael Costa: -200
Now making the UFC walk for the second time, Melquizael Costa takes on Austin Lingo as a -200 favorite. Costa debuted on short notice against Thiago Moises, losing by submission. On the other side, Lingo is 2-2 in the UFC, losing his most recent bout to Nate Landwehr via submission.
Costa looks to have a well-rounded game, with seven knockouts and six submissions among his 19 victories. While Costa does have six losses to his name, he is still just 26 years old and growing within the sport. Costa functions primarily as a striker and slightly out-landed Moises in his debut 23-22. However, his grappling failed to stand up to Moises, as he allowed four takedowns and was submitted. Moises is an excellent grappler, so there is no shame in that.
Lingo functions primarily as a striker, rarely utilizing a ground game. He lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.36. On the mat, he lands 0.55 takedowns per bout while defending them at 78%. Lingo has three knockouts and two submissions to his name, but most of his fights end in a decision. The big issue with Lingo is inconsistent performance against uninspiring competition.
Lingo still has not completely proven to be a UFC-caliber fighter. With Costa taking such a difficult debut fight on short notice, there may be some value on the favorite here. For those worried about the -200 price, Costa via submission should provide some juicy returns later in the week.
Victoria Dudakova vs. Istela Nunes Odds
Victoria Dudakova: -275 | Istela Nunes: +220
Dana White’s Contender Series alum Victoria Dudakova will make the UFC walk for the first time against Istela Nunes as a -275 favorite. Dudakova has a perfect 6-0 professional record and most recently defeated Maria Silva in August of last year. On the other side, Nunes will fight for her job after starting 0-3 in the UFC with a knockout loss to Yazmin Jauregui in December.
Dudakova has four submissions and one knockout among her six professional wins. She displayed this grappling prowess in her Contender Series fight, landing four takedowns and controlling Silva for over 10 minutes. Dudakova only lands 1.27 significant strikes per minute to this point in her career, but she efficiently uses her striking to set up her ground game.
Nunes has not won a fight since 2018. She is a pure striker, landing 5.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.83. She struggles on the ground, with 53% takedown defense. So far she has been knocked out once and submitted twice in her career. UFC competition has overwhelmed her to this point, and it is a bit surprising that she even received another fight.
Nunes is not a UFC caliber athlete, and Dudakova should have no issues taking her down. The -275 line is a value, but Dudakova by submission should provide solid returns later in the week.
Tucker Lutz vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan Odds
Tucker Lutz: +175 | Melsik Baghdasaryan: -210
At 145 pounds, Melsik Baghdasaryan takes on Tucker Lutz as a -210 favorite this weekend. Baghdasaryan dropped his most recent bout against Josh Culibao via submission in February. Meanwhile, Lutz now comes off two straight losses at the hands of Pat Sabatini and Daniel Pineda. Both fighters will look to get back on track here.
Baghdasaryan comes from a kickboxing background and is 7-2 in his mixed martial arts career. Five of those victories have come via knockout. Baghdasaryan lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.28. His main weakness comes on the ground, where he has been submitted twice in his career. However, Baghdasaryan defends takedowns at 76%, only giving an edge to the division’s elite grapplers.
Lutz has a 12-3 professional record, winning six fights by knockout and two by submission. He lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.02. On the ground, he averages 1.77 takedowns while defending them at 69%. Lutz has shown the ability to implement his varied game against the weaker competition in the UFC, but he has never made the jump to the next level.
Lutz theoretically has a grappling advantage, but Baghdasaryan should be able to defend these attempts. On the feet, Baghdasaryan has a clear advantage, which should result in a victory here. Baghdasaryan via knockout could be worth a look here as well.
Terrance McKinney vs. Nazim Sadykhov Odds
Terrance McKinney: +125 | Nazim Sadykhov: -155
Nazim Sadykhov takes on Terrance McKinney as a -155 favorite. Sadykhov enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak after defeating Evan Elder in his UFC debut via knockout. On the other side, McKinney will look to return to the win column after getting knocked out via flying knee by Ismael Bonfim in January.
McKinney might as well be the definition of “all gas, no breaks.” Now 13-5, McKinney has alternated wins and losses in his last four fights. He lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.96. He also gets 3.41 takedowns per bout but defends them at 83%. McKinney’s biggest weakness of late has been his durability. In seven UFC fights, he has been knocked out three times, including two by flying knee.
On the other side, Sadykhov comes from a striking background. At 8-1, he has six wins by knockout. Inside the UFC, he lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.47. On the ground, Sadykhov lands 0.66 takedowns per bout and defends them at 80%. Sadykhov has yet to face a wrestler of McKinney’s caliber, and this could be a potential weakness.
Sadykhov should have the advantage on the feet, and McKinney should have it on the ground. McKinney’s durability is a concern, as is his fighting IQ. However, he has the skills to pull an upset if he follows a strategic game plan.
Ottman Azaitar vs. Francisco Prado Odds
Ottman Azaitar: +110 | Francisco Prado: -135
Francisco Prado takes on Ottman Azaitar as a -135 favorite after both fighters suffered their first professional losses in their most recent fights. Prado lost his debut to Jamie Mullarkey via decision in February, while Azaitar got knocked out by Matt Frevola in November.
Prado has an 11-1 professional record despite being just 21 years old. He began his mixed martial arts career with karate but has expanded into multiple disciplines. He has a 100% finish rate, with five knockouts and six submissions. However, his UFC debut did not go according to plan. Mullarkey outstruck him 59-28 and completed three of four takedown attempts on Prado, resulting in nearly five minutes of control time.
At age 33, Azaitar has a 13-1 professional record, and 10 of his 13 wins came via knockout. He has never scored a takedown in the UFC, but he has also never been taken down. He lands 6.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.63. Azaitar does not have any wins over current UFC fighters, making his strength of schedule suspect. With that said, he still has a higher level of experience than Prado.
Prado has more weapons at his disposal in this fight. Level of competition aside, Prado should be able to outpoint Azaitar. At just -135, the chalk should hit here.
Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler Odds
Norma Dumont: -135 | Chelsea Chandler: +110
In the women’s featherweight division, Norma Dumont faces Chelsea Chandler as a -135 favorite. Dumont won each of her last two fights, most recently defeating Karol Rosa via decision in April. On the other side, Chandler won her UFC debut over Julija Stoliarenko via knockout in October of last year.
At 9-2 overall, Dumont comes from a grappling background, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, she also has striking chops with her black belt in Sanda. She lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.07. On the mat, she averages 1.16 takedowns per bout while defending them at 72%. Of her nine wins, she has two submissions and seven decisions.
Chandler’s strength is her striking, with two knockouts and one submission among her five victories. She currently rides a five-fight win streak as well. In her lone UFC fight she out-landed Stoliarenko 38-12 before earning a knockout. On the ground, she allowed one of three takedown attempts from Stoliarenko, but she only gave up 19 seconds of control time. This will be a big step up for Chandler, but the line suggests that bookmakers believe Chandler could be a legitimate threat in this division.
Dumont has the weapons to neutralize Chandler’s striking, especially if she can get this fight to the ground. Dumont at -135 is a value, but Dumont via decision should be enticing later in the week.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez Odds
Jack Della Maddalena: -600 | Bassil Hafez: +425
After previously being booked to fight on last week’s UFC 290 card, Jack Della Maddalena will now fight this week against Bassil Hafez. Hafez takes this fight on a week’s noticing, coming in as a +425 underdog against the 14-2 Maddalena. Hafez has an 8-3 record and will now look to shock the world here.
Maddalena comes from a boxing background and has elite striking. He most recently submitted Randy Brown in February of this year. He lands 8.27 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.29 himself. Maddalena has never landed a takedown, but he defends them at 71%. As a professional, only one of Maddalena’s fights has gone to a decision. He has 11 victories by knockout and another two by submission. He also has an elite body of work, with recent wins over Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev and Pete Rodriguez.
Hafez is the welterweight champion of Fury FC, most recently defeating Evan Cutts by knockout in February. He certainly doesn’t have the same level of experience as Maddalena and will be at a striking disadvantage. Hafez does have three submission wins and a decent ground game. If the upset happens, it will likely involve getting Maddalena to the ground. With that said, getting Maddalena to the ground is easier said than done.
Predictably, Maddalena comes in with the longest odds on this card. Honestly, -600 probably isn’t enough, but Maddalena by knockout/submission should provide better odds later in the week.
Albert Duraev vs. Jun Yong Park Odds
Albert Duraev: +130 | Jun Yong Park: -160
Heading to the middleweight division, Jun Yong Park puts his three-fight winning streak on the line against Albert Duraev in this week’s co-main event. Park most recently submitted Denis Tiuliulin in February and enters this fight as a -160 favorite. On the other side, Duraev defeated Chidi Njokuani via split decision in his most recent fight, putting him at 2-1 within the UFC.
Park has a well-rounded skill set, evidenced by his five knockouts and five submissions throughout his career. On the feet, Park averages 4.92 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.71. He also lands 2.33 takedowns per bout, defending them at 70%. Durability has become a slight concern with Park. He has a 16-5 overall record, but he has been finished in three of those losses.
Duraev comes from a wrestling base but has begun to round out his striking of late. In the UFC he averages 2.07 takedowns per bout while defending them at 50%. It should be noted that he has only faced two takedown attempts in his career, likely because he has the wrestling edge against most opponents. On the feet he lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.53. Duraev’s fights have been more likely to finish early to this point. At 16-4, Duraev has three knockouts and nine submissions to his name. However, he has been knocked out in all four of his losses.
On paper, linemakers did a solid job with this fight. However, value can still be found on Duraev as the underdog. Duraev has the skills to trade with Park wherever the fight goes. He also has a strong strength of schedule, and his most recent loss came as a result of a doctor’s stoppage. Even a potential submission prop could be in the cards later this week.
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Odds
Holly Holm: -165 | Mayra Bueno Silva: +135
Now 41 years old, Holly Holm will take on Mayra Bueno Silva as a -165 favorite. Holm defeated Yana Santos her last time out via unanimous decision, making her 1-1 in her last two fights. Silva will look to extend her three-fight winning streak after defeating Lina Lansberg via submission in her most recent fight. With Amanda Nunes retired, this division is wide open, and both of these women will attempt to make a statement.
The most credentialed boxer in women’s MMA history, Holm has scored a knockout in eight of 15 professional wins. She averages 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.77. After coming in as a pure striker, Holm has developed a decent grappling game. She still averages just 0.92 takedowns per bout, but she has nine takedowns in her last three fights. Holm also has 78% takedown defense, often allowing her to dictate where the fight takes place.
On the other side, Silva is the younger but less experienced fighter in this bout. She has seven submissions and one knockout among her 10 UFC fights. However, she only averages 0.38 takedowns per bout within the UFC. Her 67% takedown defense is not much of a concern due to her submission ability, though her wrestling has been a problem at times. On the feet, Silva lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.71.
This fight requires the ability to balance Holm’s declining skill with her natural advantages. Holm certainly has crisper boxing on the feet. There is also a chance she can out-wrestle Silva. If Holm can avoid the submission attempts of Silva, she should be able to find a victory here. The odds are fairly efficient, but Holm has enough advantages to target.
