It’s time to release our UFC Fight Night predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC Fight Night odds, let’s get on with it by providing our A.J. Dobson-Tafon Nchukwi pick and prediction.
Moving to slightly more experienced fighters, A.J. Dobson takes on Tafon Nchukwi in the middleweight division as a +120 underdog. After a submission win on the Contender Series, Dobson has lost two straight bouts in the UFC. Most recently, he dropped a decision to Armen Petrosyan in October of last year. Similarly, Nchukwi has dropped his last two fights, losing most recently to Carlos Ulberg via knockout earlier in June.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions: A.J. Dobson-Tafon Nchukwi
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: A.J. Dobson vs. Tafon Nchukwi Odds
A.J. Dobson: +120 | Tafon Nchukwi: -140
Dobson originally began combat sports with wrestling and Jiu Jitsu, but he has developed a fairly well-rounded game. With that said, he does have limitations. Dobson lands 4.34 significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 6.00. On the ground, he averages 1.75 takedowns per bout but only defends them at 64%. In his last fight, Petrosyan outstruck him 118-58. The fight prior, Jacob Malkoun landed six takedowns and controlled Dobson for over nine minutes. At 6-2 overall, Dobson has three knockouts and two submission victories. With that said, his level of competition leaves plenty on the table.
Nchukwi has a 6-3 professional record, featuring four knockout victories. Nchukwi has been knocked out twice, which came in his last two fights. Evidenced by his record, Nchukwi prefers to stand and trade. He averages 6.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. On the ground, he lands 0.94 takedowns per bout and defends them at 71%. Nchukwi also has a questionable strength of schedule. His only wins in the UFC came against weaker competition in Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
Final A.J. Dobson-Tafon Nchukwi pick and UFC Fight Night predictions: Ultimately, this fight likely comes down to Nchukwi’s ability to defend Dobson’s takedowns. Nchukwi has superior striking and has been solid defending takedowns in the past. Notably, Azamat Murzakanov only went 1-for-5 on takedown attempts in his second-most recent fight. For those reasons, Nchukwi at -140 will be the play. That said, Nchukwi by KO/TKO/DQ is +225, and a decision win for him is +215.
