It’s time to release our UFC Fight Night predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC Fight Night odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Terrance McKinney-Mike Breeden pick and prediction.
Terrance McKinney is a short-notice replacement and will take on Mike Breeden as a -270 favorite with just over a week to prepare. McKinney has lost three of his last four fights, but he has shown flashes in all three. Most recently, he lost via submission to Nazim Sadykhov on July 15. Meanwhile, Breeden is fresh off two straight losses, with his latest loss being to Natan Levy in April of last year. With the switch in opponent from Lando Vannata to McKinney, Breeden’s work will be cut out for him.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Terrance McKinney-Mike Breeden
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden Odds
Terrance McKinney: Opened -250, Now -270 | Mike Breeden: Opened +200, Now +220
McKinney comes from a wrestling background, but he has developed some strong hands of late as well. In the Octagon, he lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.60. The biggest question on the feet is his durability and cardio. McKinney has fought into the third round just one time, and his 43% striking defense leaves him open to big shots. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses. On the mat, he averages 3.74 takedowns per bout and 83% takedown defense. McKinney has been submitted twice, but as long as he can avoid those traps, he generally has a grappling advantage. He has a professional record of 13-6 with five knockouts and eight submissions. None of his fights have reached the judges, making him a pure kill-or-be-killed fighter.
Breeden has a diverse skill set, but his overall level of competition is weak. He lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.38. Like McKinney, he only defends strikes at 41%, leaving him open to big shots on the feet. On the mat, he averages 1.44 takedowns per bout, defending them at 59%. Superior wrestlers have also gotten the best of Breeden, evidenced by the nine takedowns he allowed against Levy last time out. Breeden has a 10-5 record with eight knockout wins. He has been knocked out twice in his losses.
McKinney should be the more skilled fighter wherever this fight plays out. While McKinney’s recent win/loss record raises concern, he has also battled significantly tougher competition. McKinney deserves to be favored, but his propensity for the finish opens some value on the KO/TKO/DQ (+140) and submission (+165) props.
