With UFC 300 just a few weeks away, it’s no surprise the cards leading up to it are a bit sparser than normal. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of promising prospects to watch, and we’ve even got a fan favorite in the main event, all of which make this card well worth watching. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles or our betting model’s top picks!
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Odds & Picks: Bets for Ribas, Williams & More
Prelim Spotlight: UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden Pick
Holobaugh–Ogden Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Holobaugh: +120 | Ogden: -150
Holobaugh +3.5: -170 | Ogden -3.5: +130
Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: +130
Holobaugh–Ogden Preview & Pick
In the final prelim bout of the night, Kurt Holobaugh (21-7) takes on Trey Ogden (16-6). Neither fighter has established themselves in the UFC to this point. Nonetheless, I would lean toward Holobaugh given his experience and solid performance in his last showing — but I’m also not rushing to bet on this one.
Holobaugh has a much longer career than Ogden, but it hasn’t translated into much success in the Octagon. In his last performance, Holobaugh demonstrated better striking than we’ve seen from him in past fights, and his work on the ground to find the submission was surprisingly smooth.
If Holobaugh can keep up the aggression on the feet with similar efficiency, he could make Ogden’s life difficult. Ogden only lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 4.02 strikes he absorbs. In his career, Ogden hasn’t landed a knockout yet, compared to 11 submissions (none of which came in the UFC). He will look to take the fight to the ground, but if he’s unable to do so, he doesn’t quite have the striking to pull ahead for a decision.
If Holobaugh hadn’t shown improvement on the ground in his last matchup, I would be more inclined to ride with Ogden. After all, Holobaugh only defends the takedown at a 50% clip. This would also be more concerning if Ogden were more efficient with the takedown, but he only succeeds on 16% of his attempts.
Ultimately, both fighters have glaring flaws in their game and could lose to anyone on any given night. I would avoid this one, as there’s not much of an edge to be had on any market, but Holobaugh moneyline would be the best play in my view.
Best UFC Holobaugh-Ogden Bet & Pick: Holobaugh ML +120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Nguyen-Errens bout: SuperBook has Nguyen at outright odds of just -150, below the true odds of -158 and far below the odds at FanDuel (-188) and BetMGM (-185), making a wager on Nguyen a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95 per month, a far better deal than the $150+ our competitors charge!
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Fernando Padilla-Luis Pajuelo Pick
Padilla–Pajuelo Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Padilla: -175 | Pajuelo: +135
Padilla -3.5: -110 | Pajuelo +3.5: -120
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Padilla–Pajuelo Preview & Pick
The first fight on the main card matches up relative newcomers Fernando Padilla (15-5) and Luis Pajuelo (8-1). I usually side with the fighter who isn’t making their debut, but Pajuelo’s aggression and power in the Contender Series make him a dangerous UFC rookie. With the odds stacked slightly in Padilla’s favor, I’m riding with the newcomer to pull off the upset.
In all likelihood, this will be a high-octane striking battle between two fighters looking to put their name on the map in the Featherweight division. Neither fighter attempted a single takedown in their first few times in the Octagon. This marks a change for Padilla, who won eight times by submission before his time in the UFC. He could certainly change strategies and look for a takedown in this one, but we haven’t seen any indication that will be the case.
If it remains on the feet, Pajuelo will likely have the advantage. Of his eight professional wins, seven of them came by knockout. It’s yet to be seen if he can keep up the pace he set in his first fight for more than a round, but if he can, he will be dangerous. Before knocking his last opponent out, Pajuelo landed a stunning 9.15 significant strikes per minute at a 61% clip.
Padilla isn’t a slowpoke on the feet either. He lands a solid 5.51 significant strikes per minute, but he does it on far worse efficiency, at only 38%. His aggression and inefficiency lead him to get hit at a high rate, absorbing 5.81 significant strikes per minute. With Pajuelo’s knockout power, Padilla will either need to take the fight to the ground or land strikes more efficiently if he wants to stay off the newcomer’s highlight reel.
With the odds against him, I anticipate Pajuelo will come out firing early against Padilla. Perhaps Padilla can find an edge if he takes the fight to the ground, but his refusal to attempt a takedown to this point makes me confident that it will likely remain on the feet for the most part.
Best UFC Padilla-Pajuelo Bet & Pick: Pajuelo ML +135 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Billy Quarantillo-Youssef Zalal Pick
Quarantillo–Zalal Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Quarantillo: -105 | Zalal: -115
Quarantillo -3.5: +140 | Zalal +3.5: -185
Over 2.5: -270 | Under 2.5: +200
Quarantillo–Zalal Preview & Pick
The next fight up comes between Billy Quarantillo (18-5) and Youssef Zalal (13-5-1). Zalal looks to bounce back after a rough stretch. While I never like to see fighters go on long skids, I don’t see him winning in this one — we’re riding with Quarantillo in this spot.
One of Zalal’s main issues, particularly in his past four bouts, has been his lack of pace. All seven of his fights went to the cards. While he made it to the cards against the current champ, Ilia Topuria, a feat not achieved by many, overall, it’s cost him a few decisions. Put simply, a three-round fight is too short to consistently succeed with a low output absent an insane amount of knockout power.
Zalal’s pace is glacial. He only lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute and averages just over two takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Those rates aren’t enough for him to reliably win by decision, as he doesn’t give the judges enough to hang their hat on when scoring the bout. One obvious benefit about his pace is that it mitigates the damage he takes — he absorbs only 1.75 significant strikes per minute. While that helps him avoid the knockout, it hurts him on the cards.
Quarantillo, on the other hand, has a ballistic pace. He lands 7.71 significant strikes per minute while getting 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. With his pressure, he does a good job of mitigating the damage he takes, only absorbing 5.61 significant strikes per minute. This would be a bit more concerning against a fighter with more power than Zalal, but in this one, his aggression will likely serve him well.
Quarantillo isn’t simply a knockout machine — he boasts a well-rounded game. Out of his 18 professional victories, eight came by knockout and five came by submission and decision. This will make it difficult for Zalal to find an edge if he can’t keep up on the feet. I expect this one to be a solid fight, with Quarantillo winning comfortably. For those who want to juice the odds more on Quarantillo, riding with the spread or with him to win by knockout would be a way to do so.
Best UFC Quarantillo-Zalal Bet & Pick: Quarantillo ML -105 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Peyton Talbott-Cameron Saaiman Pick
Talbott–Saaiman Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Talbott: -165 | Saaiman: +130
Talbott -3.5: +120 | Saaiman +3.5: -165
Over 2.5: -190 | Under 2.5: +145
Talbott–Saaiman Preview & Pick
Both Peyton Talbott (7-0) and Cameron Saaiman (9-1) have found success early in their UFC careers. Talbott’s standup was formidable in his first two fights, but they both came against suspect competition. Since Saaiman is more battle-tested than Talbott, I like him to come out on top in what should be a great fight between solid prospects.
Saaiman hit a bit of a snag in his last fight, suffering his first professional loss to Christian Rodriguez by decision. Nonetheless, it was a strong performance against a talented, experienced fighter who is becoming a consistent hype-killer, especially with his controversial decision win against Isaac Dulgarian. Even before his fight with Rodriguez, Saaiman faced off against a few solid, UFC-level opponents.
On the other hand, Peyton Talbott has yet to fight an opponent with a UFC victory. It’s not Talbott’s fault that he only faced winless opponents, and his performances were still impressive, but it’s hard to predict how well his performance will translate as he steps up in competition. This was on full display in the Rodriguez-Dulgarian bout last week when Dulgarian dominated in the first half of the fight before gassing out and losing the last round and a half handily.
Both fighters look to push the pace on the feet, with Talbott landing 6.66 significant strikes per minute and Saaiman landing 5.28. They also both defend themselves well, absorbing two less significant strikes per minute than they land. Saaiman appears to have a bit of an edge in grappling, landing a takedown per fight. While not stellar, Talbott has yet to land a takedown in his time in the UFC, so this shouldn’t be much of a fear for Saaiman coming into this one.
The margin in this one is likely to be razor-thin, but I like Saaiman to come out ahead given his experience.
Best UFC Talbott-Saaiman Bet & Pick: Saaiman ML +130 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson Pick
Shahbazyan–Dobson Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Shahbazyan: -210 | Dobson: +155
Shahbazyan -3.5: -140 | Dobson +3.5: +105
Over 2.5: +100 | Under 2.5: -130
Shahbazyan–Dobson Preview & Pick
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4) looks to rebound after a slight skid. He’ll face AJ Dobson (7-2). Shahbazyan’s knockout power is well-proven, particularly against unranked opponents. Dobson’s lack of defense on the feet will likely put him in trouble, and, for that reason, I like Shahbazyan to win by knockout.
Like Gerald Meerschaert last week, Shahbazyan only really wins by one method: knockout. Of his 12 professional wins, 10 came by KO/TKO. His knockout power translated to the UFC, as four of his six wins in the Octagon were knockouts.
His knockouts don’t come on flurries of punches, as Shahbazyan has a relatively low output. He only lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute. This evidences both a high level of power and accuracy.
Shahbazyan will have plenty of opportunities to land a knockout shot in this one. Dobson’s defensive ability is questionable, as he absorbs 5.25 significant strikes per minute. This is particularly concerning, as he only lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute. It’s always dangerous to take more damage than you dole out, but it’s particularly deadly against a knockout artist like Shahbazyan.
Typically, betting on a fighter to win by a specific method is risky at +130. However, given Shahbazyan’s high percentage of knockouts, there is only one predictable method of victory for Shahbazyan. Taking his career percentage of knockouts out of his victories (83%) and multiplying it by the implied probability Shahbazyan wins according to the moneyline (69%) yields a probability of 57%. This is clear of the implied probability of +130 (43%).
With specialists like Meerschaert and Shahbazyan, lines on the method of victory markets are likely to be inefficient, given the three possible methods a fighter could win by. This seems to be no exception, and it’s a line well worth playing.
Best UFC Shahbazyan-Dobson Bet & Pick: Shabazyan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +130 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Karl Williams-Justin Tafa Pick
Williams–Tafa Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Williams: -205 | Tafa: +150
Williams -3.5: -120 | Tafa +3.5: -110
Over 1.5: -180 | Under 1.5: +140
Williams–Tafa Preview & Pick
In the penultimate fight of the night, Karl Williams (9-1) takes on Justin Tafa (7-3) in what is likely to be a clash of styles. Tafa hasn’t shown any glaring flaws in his takedown defense, but Williams is relentless as a grappler.
If Tafa doesn’t find an early knockout, Williams will likely grind him down throughout a comfortable decision victory. Because I don’t see an early knockout happening, I’m riding with Williams’ spread.
Tafa found something of a Tai Tuivasa-like switch in his game. After losing three of his first four UFC fights, two of which came by decision, he found success with early knockouts, winning three of his next four (with one no contest) by first-round KO. This type of style tends to be feast or famine. If Tafa doesn’t knock his opponent out, he doesn’t win, or at least he hasn’t so far.
Tafa will be tested in a way he hasn’t been to this point in his UFC career. In eight bouts, he’s amazingly only had to defend two takedowns, which he was able to do on both occasions. Against Williams, however, he may have to defend the takedown twice in the opening minute. Williams’ wrestling pace is relentless, as he lands four takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a 46% clip.
One issue that prodigious strikers face when they match up with a wrestler is fatigue. While Tafa may not gas out completely, the more Williams can drain his energy in grappling exchanges, the less power he will be able to put on his shots. This is also why knockout artists have far more success in the first round than in later rounds.
Williams also does a great job defending himself. He only absorbs 1.8 significant strikes per minute at a very strong 62% rate. His entire game is predicated on slowing it down on the feet while pressuring for takedowns. However, even if he cannot get a takedown, the threat of the takedown will likely open up his striking. This is what happened in his last fight, which was against Chase Sherman, in which he scored only one takedown but landed 70 significant strikes at a 42% rate.
Ultimately, Tafa has to land a knockout early to take this one. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely get ground down over three rounds with Williams en route to a comfortable victory.
Best UFC Williams-Tafa Bet & Pick: Williams -3.5 -120 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas | Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Pick
Ribas–Namajunas Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight
Ribas: +160 | Namajunas: -220
Ribas +5.5: +110 | Namajunas -5.5: -145
Over 4.5: +110 | Under 4.5: -140
Ribas–Namajunas Preview & Pick
The main event pairs Amanda Ribas (12-4) up against fan favorite Rose Namajunas (12-6). While support for Namajunas waned slightly after her head-scratching performance against Carla Esparza — and the even more perplexing media tour that came after it — she is still one of the biggest names in women’s MMA.
Due to her name recognition, the line is tilting in Namajunas’ favor, which doesn’t appear warranted given her recent lackluster performances.
Namajunas earned her moniker “Thug Rose” in her two title runs in the Strawweight division. That is, she had until her fight with Esparza in which she only landed 37 significant strikes over five rounds against a wrestling specialist. Her strategy in that fight was widely criticized, which led to a slew of bizarre interviews in which she passionately defended the approach.
Whether she defended the strategy or not, Namajunas was clearly in need of motivation at that time, by her own admission, which spurred the jump to Flyweight. She fought admirably in her first Flyweight bout against Manon Fiorot, but the size difference clearly showed. With their striking numbers almost equivalent, Fiorot gained the edge by landing the heavier shots.
Her previous fight didn’t come without some positive takeaways. For one, her quickness and agility allowed her to keep Fiorot to just 25% on her significant strikes. However, this didn’t translate to a high level of efficiency for Namajunas’ own striking, as she only landed 40% herself.
The Fiorot fight is important because Namajunas will have trouble in the higher weight class as a naturally smaller fighter. Where she was able to knock out the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili at Strawweight, translating that to larger fighters who are accustomed to heavier shots will be difficult.
The size difference could pose a major problem against Ribas, who will pressure Namajunas heavily both on the feet and with her grappling. Ribas scores around two takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a very strong 51% rate. While the difference in power is a big factor when changing weight classes, perhaps the biggest change is in grappling. Namajunas will have to defend the takedown at a heavier weight than she has at any point in her career, which will take far more strength and stamina.
Ribas won’t give Namajunas any time to breathe on the feet. She lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute, which is all the more impressive as she defends her opponent’s strikes at a 62% clip, only absorbing 3.33 significant strikes per minute. Ribas’ defensive ability could play a big part in the fight, particularly as Namajunas has been gun-shy in some of her most recent fights.
With the fight scheduled for five rounds, I expect Ribas’ pressure and power to wear Namajunas down. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one ends before the bell, but riding with the moneyline is the more prudent approach.
Best UFC Ribas-Namajunas Bet & Pick: Amanda Ribas ML +160 at DraftKings
