UFC Fight Night: Song-Gutierrez Odds & Picks: Bets for Anthony Smith, Su Mudaerji & More

Despite not having the same star power as the upcoming UFC 296 card, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez still has plenty of promise for fireworks, with talented strikers throughout the night. As is common with UFC’s Fight Nights, the card is filled with younger fighters looking to stamp their mark in the UFC and fan favorites looking to get themselves back on track. Despite its potential for volatility, there are plenty of opportunities to gain an edge throughout the night. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night: Song-Gutierrez Odds & Picks: Bets for Anthony Smith, Su Mudaerji & More

UFC Fight Night: Song-Gutierrez | Park-Muniz Pick

Park has recently found success in his recent octagon appearances through a high volume of submission attempts. In his last three fights, Park has attempted six submissions in 22 minutes for an average of one submission attempt every 3:39. Those submission victories account for 42% of Park’s seven wins while in the UFC. For his recent prowess on the ground, Park is certainly not perfect in defending himself, sometimes getting stunned on the feet. In his debut, Park succumbed to a nasty anaconda choke after taking damage on the feet and getting outclassed on the ground by Anthony Hernandez. This remains the only submission attempt Park has needed to defend in his time in the UFC. In all, Park’s nine UFC bouts have ended by submission a tick over 44% of the time.

Park’s opponent, Andre Muniz, boasts a third-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu and is no stranger to submission finishes. In his short time in the UFC, Muniz has procured three wins and one loss by submission in seven fights, accounting for 57% of all outcomes. Where Park’s submission-happy approach has been a recent development, Muniz’s record in the UFC represents a slight uptick in submission endings from his full professional ending. Out of Muniz’s twenty-nine fights, he has gained fifteen submission wins and only one loss, accounting for 55% of his fights.

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Muniz’s record doesn’t tell the whole story: his most recent loss to Paul Craig nearly ended in submission before ending via ground and pound toward the end of the second round. In his recent fights, Muniz has shown susceptibility on the ground, particularly when his opponents have been able to punish his relatively weak strike defense both on the feet and on the ground. Muniz showed some flare in his striking against Brendan Allen, but his relatively low output, landing just above two significant strikes per minute, opens him up to taking damage against a higher-output striker like Park.

Further, Muniz’s 35% takedown defense rate is particularly concerning against Park, who averages two takedowns every fifteen minutes at a 50% strike rate. The potential for him to take damage on the feet and on the ground, where his strike defense has serious holes, places him in danger of getting caught. Back this fight to end in a submission.

Best UFC Park-Muniz Bet & Pick: Exact Method of Victory Submission +150 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez | Haqparast-Mullarkey Pick

Let’s start with the good: Haqparast and Mullarkey both land a high rate of significant strikes per minute, at 5.73 and 4.46, respectively. Each fighter also has a high capacity to absorb strikes, with Haqparast eating 5.26 significant strikes per minute, and Mullarkey absorbing 4.41 strikes per minute. It is peculiar, however, that with the number of shots each fighter gives and takes, they have only been able to account for three knockout wins in their combined twenty UFC fights, for a rate of 15%. When you account for the fighters’ three combined knockout losses and zero submission wins or losses, the percentage of their fights that have gone the distance stands at 70%.

It may be easy to chalk this up to bad luck or a statistical anomaly. After all, Haqparast has amassed five knockdowns in eleven fights, only resulting in one knockout victory. However, some of this can be accounted for in each fighter’s tendency to remain measured without aggressively seeking an end to the fight. On Haqparast’s five knockdowns, for example, he has only managed to land fifteen combined significant strikes, good for just three per knockdown. Without one-punch knockout power, the ability to swarm an opponent on the ground is vital to stopping the fight. Considering that Haqparast procures less than half of a takedown every fifteen minutes of fight time, his only real chance to win a fight before the final bell is to land meaningful shots on the ground, an ability he has not shown consistently.

Mullarkey’s strategy tends to center more on a higher volume of leg kicks than on strictly targeting the head. For example, Mullarkey’s last fight saw him land thirty-eight significant strikes to the head relative to thirty-seven to the legs. These are certainly meaningful shots, and they may even allow Mullarkey to target the head as his opponent’s mobility becomes limited, but they won’t cause knockouts. The rate at which he lands significant strikes per minute that have the actual potential to knock an opponent down or out is much lower. Further, Mullarkey doesn’t tend to press for stoppages as other fighters might. While he has been able to procure 2.46 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time, he has never even attempted a submission. To stop Haqparast early, Mullarkey will need to employ a far more aggressive approach than we’ve seen from him before.

Oddsmakers have attempted to account for both fighters’ inability to end things early by placing the odds for a decision victory at -190, but, given each fighter’s capacity for grinding out the clock, there remains an edge on that play despite the short odds. With implied odds that the fight goes to decision sitting at around 65%, the bookmakers have given bettors an edge unless Mullarkey or Haqparast channel a strategy or ability that they have not shown in their respective stints in the UFC.

Best UFC Haqparast-Mullarkey Bet & Pick: Exact Method of Victory Decision -190 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez | Elliott-Mudaerji Pick

The numbers reveal one brutal truth about Tim Elliott’s career in the UFC: if you were able to bet on every one of his opponents in the plus money, you would have made a nice profit. Of course, it is not always that simple, as a few of his eleven losses have come in fights where he was the underdog or against opponents that, in hindsight, we can say were better.

Watching fighters with backgrounds in Sanda like Mudaerji is always a treat. With other notable practitioners such as Zhang Weili, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and the card’s headliner, Song Yadong, a hallmark of Sanda fighters is their smooth and creative striking. Mudaerji is no different — he has shown a consistent ability to outmatch his opponents on the feet with devastating accuracy and venom, particularly with different types of elbow strikes. Even in his loss to Matt Schnell, Mudaerji came close to victory numerous times, wobbling Schnell with powerful strikes before eventually succumbing to a triangle choke.

One factor that may prove to be a difference-maker is Mudaerji’s length. With a six-inch reach advantage, he will not only have an offensive advantage against Elliott, as he can pepper him with shots from range, but he may also have a defensive advantage as well. Elliott’s path to victory is somewhat predictable: he will have to drag the fight to the ground and win in a gritty decision — or perhaps secure the second submission in his UFC career. A fight that remains on the feet does not play into Elliott’s proven strategy, which involves him procuring nearly four takedowns on average in a fifteen-minute fight.

Elliott will have to pick his chances to close the distance because even a slight miscalculation could prove decisive and lethal. Fighting at range has proven to be a difficult challenge for each of Mudaerji’s opponents to overcome, as the Sando practitioner has landed 158 combined significant strikes from distance in fights after his debut compared to his opponents’ combined 60. Those hits have landed at a success rate of around 51% compared to his opponents’ 26%. Given that Elliott has a shorter reach than all but one of the fighters in this span, he needs a plan to nullify Mudaerji’s reach, which opens him up to Mudaerji’s deadly elbows.

While the fact Elliott is fighting on such short notice is certainly a factor, it is unclear which fighter it advantages more. On the one hand, taking a fight on such short notice can impact a fighter’s conditioning, but given that Elliott fought just under two months ago, he should be in fight shape come Saturday barring any nagging injuries. The strategic challenges for both fighters on such short notice don’t seem to be present here. The fighters had previously booked a fight in June 2021, which was ultimately canceled, so they should be aware of each other’s general tendencies. Further, Mudaerji had already prepared to fight a grappling-heavy opponent in Allan Nascimento, so, stylistically, he doesn’t have to change much in his approach. In all, there is no real way to predict who this favors, though the general thought is that a short-notice fight tends to harm the fighter stepping in at the last minute.

With implied probability putting Mudaerji’s chances to win at around 49%, there is an edge to riding with him in this fight. However, with it being on short notice, the line may well change as the fight approaches

Best UFC Mudaerji-Elliott Bet & Pick: Su Mudaerji +105 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez | Smith-Rountree Pick

In their combined careers, Smith and Rountree have accounted for fourteen finishes in the first 7:30 of their combined 33 fights (34 if you take into account Rountree’s one no-contest). While these finishes show how dangerous each fighter can be from the start, they only account for 42% of the fighter’s combined outcomes, with the remaining 58% of their bouts extending past the first half of the second round.

Further, each fighter relies on one-punch power for much of their success, as neither has a particularly high output. Rountree lands the greater of the two fighters at 3.73 significant strikes per minute, while Smith lands at 3.16 strikes per minute. All told, Rountree can be expected to land around 28 significant strikes in the first 1.5 rounds while Smith can be expected to land around 24.

However, the numbers don’t tell the full story — Anthony Smith has been gun-shy in his recent bouts against strong opponents since his loss to Glover Teixeira. In his three losses since, Smith has attempted only one 149 significant strikes in a tick over 38 minutes of fight time, coming out to a rate of around four per minute. Although his recent win against Ryan Spann saw Smith increase his output, he notably sought to implement his grappling early, attempting three takedowns in the first round despite normally averaging just two in a three-round fight. These strategic decisions hint that his early-round aggression may be tempered in favor of a decision-oriented approach.

Both of these fighters possess the ability to stop the fight at any moment, but with that, the books have overestimated their raw power. The implied odds of the fight lasting longer than 1.5 rounds sit at 50%, meaningfully below that of their career outcomes.

Best UFC Smith-Rountree Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds +100 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Pick

The key word to describe Gutierrez is range. He has an uncanny ability to keep his opponents on the outside, employing a lot of leg and body kicks. While his 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute is thus a bit overstated, at least as it pertains to knockout shots, they pay dividends strategically. His range also plays into his defense. Absorbing just under three significant strikes per minute at a 65% defense rate, he has found a way to employ an open defensive guard while maintaining a low risk of getting caught. This will help him avoid Song’s powerbombs throughout the night, a necessity if he wants to stand any chance at winning.

Despite his tendency to keep people at range, Gutierrez has plenty of knockout ability. Of his 25 professional fights that have ended decisively, nine of them have been won by knockout, accounting for 36% of his fight outcomes. While that number has gone down a tick since entering the UFC, he has still been able to procure three knockouts in 11 fights for a rate of 27%. Gutierrez will have plenty of opportunity to attack Song’s weaknesses, as he absorbs 3.77 significant strikes per minute, at a defense rate of 59%.

Bookmakers have undervalued Gutierrez’s knockout ability, placing his odds of winning with one at +900. The combination of Gutierrez’s comfort at distance and Song’s power coming mostly from his punches will require Song to take chances to close the distance to fight at a range more suitable for him. However, this creates the risk of him getting caught with either a spinning back-kick or a knee up the middle, both of which are techniques Gutierrez regularly employs to punish his opponents when they try to close. These types of strikes remain some of the most unpredictable and difficult to defend, and Song will need to have a plan to avoid them effectively to impose his will. With implied odds at just 10%, even a small bet on Gutierrez by knockout offers big rewards.

Best UFC Song-Gutierrez Bet & Pick: Chris Guttierez by KO/TKO/DQ +900 at DraftKings