The UFC travels to Paris for UFC Fight Night: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak. This Fight Night also features Rose Namajunas against Manon Fiorot in the co-main event. Ahead of the UFC Paris event, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC Paris picks and predictions for the Gane-Spivak card.
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UFC Paris Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
Best UFC Paris Picks: Zarah Fairn vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti Odds
Zarah Fairn: +260 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti: -330
Starting in the women’s bantamweight division, Zarah Fairn takes on UFC newcomer Jacqueline Cavalcanti as a +260 underdog. Now 0-3 in the promotion, Fairn dropped her most recent fight against Josiane Nunes via unanimous decision. Conversely, Cavalcanti has won three straight on the regional scene. She most recently defeated Melissa Croden by decision back in April.
Fairn has a 6-5 professional record. She does have four knockouts, but she has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Fairn is a pure striker who lands 5.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.74 behind weak 48% striking defense. She has never landed a takedown in her UFC career and defends them at an alarming 50%. Fairn has only defeated two opponents with winning records, making her a major concern at this point in her career.
Cavalcanti, on the other hand, has a 5-1 professional record, though she also has just two wins over fighters with positive records. Still, she appears to have some power in her hands, with three wins by knockout on his profile. Cavalcanti also took this fight on short notice after Fairn’s original opponent pulled out. In general, it looks likely to play out as a standup affair.
This is basically a regional fight under the UFC umbrella due to the nationality of both fighters. At +260, playing the underdog makes sense, as Fairn has fought the better opponents to this point (even if she lost). The prop market has not opened yet, but this fight just making it to decision could be another option.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Zarah Fairn +260, Also Check Props Later in Week
Best UFC Paris Picks: Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues Odds
Farid Basharat: -300 | Kleydson Rodrigues: +240
In the men’s bantamweight division, Farid Basharat takes on Kleydson Rodrigues as a -300 favorite, making him the third-largest favorite on the card. After a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, Basharat knocked off Da’Mon Blackshear via unanimous decision in March. Rodrigues also enters this fight fresh off a win over Shannon Ross via knockout in February.
Basharat is a well-rounded fighter with a perfect 10-0 record, and he has one knockout and five submission victories. In the UFC, he lands 5.80 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.43. On the mat, he averages three takedowns per bout while defending them at 83%, and he stood up against the strong grappling of Blackshear last time out. He earned three takedowns in that fight, controlling Blackshear for over five minutes. Basharat’s skill set will be a problem for this division as he improves.
Rodrigues looks like more of a flyweight than a bantamweight. He stands just 5-foot 5 and has a 67-inch reach, which puts him at a size disadvantage in most of his fights. Rodrigues has an 8-2 professional record featuring four knockouts and two submissions. He lands 6.0 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.0 behind his 49% striking defense. Rodrigues also averages 0.97 takedowns per bout while defending them at 66%. He still has a questionable level of competition, with his most difficult fights including Ross and C.J. Vergara.
All in all, Basharat has multiple edges. He is the better grappler with a superior strength of schedule, and he just needs to stay disciplined on the feet. Given his size and clean defense, he could even have an edge in a striking battle. Despite being a -300 favorite, Basharat is the sharp side of this fight.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Farid Basharat -300
Best UFC Paris Picks: Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards Odds
Nora Cornolle: +105 | Joselyne Edwards: -125
Back to the women’s bantamweight division, Nora Cornolle takes on Joselyne Edwards as a +105 underdog. Cornolle is a UFC newcomer, but she enters this fight on a six-fight winning streak. Last time out, she defeated Hassna Gaber in March. Joselyn Edwards also has a three-fight winning streak, most recently beating Lucie Pudilova via split decision in April.
Cornolle has five knockouts among her six professional wins. Like many fighters making their debut this weekend, she has an atrocious strength of schedule on the regional scene. She comes from a Muay Thai/kickboxing background but is unproven on the mat. Even though Edwards is not known for her ground game, Cornolle will likely cede some advantages on the ground.
Edwards has a 13-4 professional record at just 27 years of age. Her wins include five knockouts and three submissions, and she has only been submitted one time in her losses. Edwards lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48, and she also lands 0.33 takedowns per minute while defending them at 64%. Edwards typically does not look to use her grappling, but that should be an advantage. Notably, she has fought significantly tougher competition with six fights in the UFC and is 4-2 within those fights.
The short line does not make much sense, as Edwards is the younger but more experienced fighter and has more tools to win this matchup. At -125, Edwards looks like one of the sharper plays on this slate.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Joselyne Edwards -125
Best UFC Paris Picks: Ange Loosa vs. Rhys McKee Odds
Ange Loosa: -180 | Rhys McKee: +155
In an exciting welterweight bout, Ange Loosa takes on Rhys McKee as a -180 favorite. Loosa had a tough start to his UFC career before earning a victory over A.J. Fletcher in his most recent fight. Prior to that, Loosa ran into Jack Della Maddalena on the Contender Series and took on Mounir Lazzez on short notice. Similarly, McKee makes his return to the UFC after going 3-0 on the regional scene. In his brief UFC stint, the promotion fed him to Khamzat Chimaev and Alex Morono.
Loosa has a 9-3 professional record featuring five knockouts and one submission. He has never been finished in his losses. Loosa comes from a striking background, but he actually has a fairly well-rounded skill set. Loosa lands 6.24 significant strikes but absorbs 7.47. Though matching up against Della Maddalena and Lazzez certainly put a negative cloud on his skills, Loosa should be able to stand with most fighters in this division, even with the negative striking differential. On top of that, Loosa averages one takedown per bout while defending them at 100%, and this defense came against some decent grapplers, inspiring more confidence in this part of his game moving forward.
McKee has a 13-4 professional record. This includes 10 knockouts and three submissions. He has been knocked out twice, but one of those came against Chimaev. McKee comes from a striking background, but evaluating his UFC fights is tricky. Chimaev steamrolled McKee after landing an early takedown before throwing some vicious ground and pound. McKee also was outstruck 176-124 by Morono while ceding three takedowns. With both opponents now staples in the division, it is possible that McKee simply took on too much too soon in the UFC.
This fight should be relatively close on the feet, with a potential edge to McKee. However, Loosa could look to go the takedown route, where McKee has been exploited in his career. Loosa does not have the wrestling of Chimaev or Morono, but this likely is his top path to victory. Given this advantage, backing Loosa -180 will be the play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Ange Loosa -180
Best UFC Paris Picks: Morgan Charriere vs. Manolo Zecchini Odds
Morgan Charriere: -290 | Manolo Zecchini: +235
Morgan Charriere takes on Manolo Zecchini as a -290 favorite in a battle of newcomers for the men’s featherweight division. Charriere has won three straight fights, most recently defeating Diego Silva in July of this year. Similarly, Zecchini has also won two straight on the regional scene after knocking out Aboubakar Tounkara in October of last year.
Charriere already has an 18-9 professional record featuring 10 knockouts and three submissions. In his losses, he has never been knocked out and was submitted just once. Charriere brings decent striking and a relatively unproven ground game to this low-level fight, and he is known more for his Twitch presence than his actual fights, so it is clear the UFC is trying to draw eyes to an underwhelming UFC Paris card.
Zecchini has an 11-3 professional record with eight knockouts and one submission win. Of his losses, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Zecchini has a weak level of competition and an unknown grappling game. He prefers to stand and trade, which will likely be the case in this fight.
Given that this is a low-level striking affair, neither fighter should be -290 in this spot. Playing Zecchini out of pure principle makes sense, but maybe wait to wager since bettors are likely to come in on the more popular fighter Charriere.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Manolo Zecchini +235
Best UFC Paris Picks: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Thiago Moises Odds
Benoit Saint Denis: -135 | Thiago Moises: +115
Moving to the lightweight division, Benoit Saint Denis takes on Thiago Moises as a -135 favorite. Fresh off a submission win over Ismael Bonfim, Saint Denis rides a three-fight winning streak heading into this fight. Similarly, Moises has two straight victories after an impressive run in the division. Most recently, he defeated Melquizael Costa via submission back in January.
Saint Denis has an 11-1 professional record featuring two knockouts and nine submissions. His only loss came via decision at the hands of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision in his UFC debut. Saint Denis comes from a wrestling background and has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Within the UFC, he lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.14. Almost all of this negative striking differential comes from his bout against Dos Santos. With that said, his 41% striking defense is a concern. On the mat, Saint Denis averages 3.8 takedowns per bout while defending them at 85%. He will also hunt submissions, averaging 1.9 attempts per fight.
Moises has a 17-6 professional record at 28 years of age. Moises has three knockouts and eight submissions to his name. losses, Moises has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. However, those losses occurred against Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez at the top of the division. Moises comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. Inside the Octagon, he lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.9. grappling, Moises averages 1.53 takedowns per bout and has 60% takedown defense. Competition-wise, Moises has fought the tougher foes by a wide margin.
This is an interesting matchup overall. Both fighters do their best work on the ground, but it could be a potential chance to buy low on Moises after he lost to some of the top fighters within the division. Even if Saint Denis attempts to use his wrestling, he will need to mind Moises’ submissions. That is easier said than done, so playing Moises as an underdog makes sense.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Thiago Moises +115
Best UFC Paris Picks: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds
Volkan Oezdemir: -155 | Bogdan Guskov: +130
In the men’s light heavyweight division, UFC veteran Volkan Oezdemir takes on UFC newcomer Bogdan Guskov as a -155 favorite. Now 1-3 in his last four fights, Oezdemir most recently lost a decision to Nikita Krylov in October of last year. Guskov rides a four-fight winning streak, having knocked out Carlos Eduardo in March of this year.
Oezdemir has an 18-7 professional record with 12 knockouts and one submission. Among his losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted twice. However, most of these losses came against the top of the men’s light heavyweight division. Oezdemir comes from a kickboxing background, evidenced by his propensity for knockouts. In the UFC, he lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.97. He does not often shoot takedowns, but he averages 0.47 per bout. More importantly, he defends them at 80%, which has him up against most of the division. It should be noted that Krylov landed seven takedowns against Oezdemir and controlled him for over nine minutes last time out. However, that does not look like much of a concern against Guskov.
Guskov enters the Octagon with a 14-2 professional record. These wins include 12 knockouts and two submissions. He has only been knocked out one time, which came back in 2020. Guskov does his best work striking, evidenced by his win-loss record. The newcomer has fought a few legitimate opponents, but most of his fights came against underwhelming regional talent. With a veteran kickboxer on the other side, this will be Guskov’s toughest test to date.
In what projects to be a straight striking affair, Oezdemir has a strength of schedule and striking edge. Oezdemir has shown some durability concerns, but as long as he avoids big shots, he should take home a victory.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Volkan Oezdemir -155
Best UFC Paris Picks: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas Odds
Manon Fiorot: -180 | Rose Namajunas: +155
In an interesting decision, Rose Namajunas has moved up to flyweight to battle rising prospect Manon Fiorot as a +155 underdog. Namajunas lost her most recent bout against Carla Esparza in one of the worst fights in UFC history. She has two wins over current strawweight title holder Zhang Weili, making this move even more perplexing. Fiorot is currently on a five-fight winning streak in the UFC. Most recently, she defeated gatekeeper Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision in October of last year.
Namajunas has an 11-5 professional record featuring two knockouts and five submissions. In her losses, she has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Namajunas comes from a diverse mixed martial arts background, including taekwondo, karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. In the UFC, she lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.50. However, her 60% striking defense is excellent. On the mat, she lands 1.61 takedowns on average with 60% takedown defense. Now moving up, she will be at a slight size disadvantage against Fiorot.
Riding a 10-fight winning streak, Fiorot has not lost since her mixed martial arts debut in 2018. She has six knockout victories and no submissions on her profile. Fiorot comes from a striking background, where she participated in karate, kickboxing and Muay Thai. In the UFC, she lands 6.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14. On top of that, she has excellent 71% striking defense while also averaging 1.69 takedowns per bout and 83% takedown defense. Namajunas should theoretically have a wrestling advantage, but the move up in weight is a concern.
This will be Fiorot’s toughest fight yet, by a decent margin. Namajunas has the technical striking ability to stand and trade with Fiorot and a solid ground game if the fight goes that direction. While the move up is a slight concern, playing Namajunas at the underdog price makes sense.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Rose Namajunas +155
Best UFC Paris Picks: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Odds
Ciryl Gane: -175 | Sergey Spivak: +150
In the main event, former tight holder Ciryl Gane takes on Sergey Spivak as a -175 favorite in the heavyweight division. Last time out, Gane dropped a decision to Jon Jones, putting him at 1-2 in his last three fights. However, losing to Jones and Francis Ngannou in title fights comes with no shame. Spivak rides a three-fight winning streak after submitting Derrick Lewis in February of this year.
Gane has an 11-2 professional record featuring five knockouts and two submission wins. Gane comes from a Muay Thai background, evidenced by his striking. Within the UFC, he lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.25 behind 62% striking defense. Gane also averages 0.61 takedowns per bout while defending them at 45%. In both of his title fights, his grappling weaknesses led to his downfall.
Spivak has a 16-3 professional record featuring seven knockouts and seven submissions. His three losses came to Walt Harris, Marcin Tybura and Tom Aspinall on his way to this bout. Spivak comes from a grappling background, which he uses often in the cage. He averages 5.05 takedowns per bout while defending them at 70%. A capable striker, Spivak also lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.84. The only other element working against him is strength of schedule since he has fought weaker competition, but Gane has also failed in most of his bouts against elite competition.
All in all, Gane should have the advantage on the feet and Spivak on the ground. Gane’s most recent struggles with other ground fighters raise major concerns, and while Spivak has yet to get past the division’s elite, his wrestling advantage makes him a worthwhile underdog on this card.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Sergey Spivak +150
Editor’s Update: The fights crossed out below have all been canceled due to Lucas Almeida and Muin Gafurov withdrawing. The new fights will be:
- William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
- Taylor Lapilus vs. Caolan Loughran
Best UFC Paris Picks: William Gomis vs. Lucas Almeida Odds
William Gomis: -150 | Lucas Almeida: +125
Moving to the men’s featherweight division, William Gomis battles Lucas Almeida as a -150 favorite. Now 2-0 in the UFC, Gomis most recently defeated Francis Marshall by split decision in April, whereas Almeida dropped his last bout in June to Pat Sabatini via submission.
Gomis is 12-2 overall with six knockouts and one submission on his profile. In his losses, he has been submitted just one time. Gomis primarily works through his striking, where he lands 1.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.17, but his two most recent fights have involved a fair amount of grappling. In his debut, he took Jarno Errens down twice and controlled him for over eight minutes. Marshall took Gomis down twice in his most recent fight, earning over four minutes of control time. Still, Gomis stopped a pair of submission attempts and defends takedowns at 71% overall. While a work in progress, Gomis’ ground game does not stand out as a weakness.
Almeida has a 14-2 professional record, and both of those losses have come under the UFC umbrella, giving him a 1-2 record when including the Contender Series. Of his wins, Almeida has nine knockouts and five submission victories. Almeida has not landed a takedown in the UFC, but he does have a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt — though he only defends takedowns at 40%, which can put him at a disadvantage. On the feet, he lands and absorbs exactly 5.29 significant strikes and has 45% striking defense. Ultimately, Almeida has an all-action fighting style, but his careless defense has contributed to his two recent losses.
Despite being the younger fighter, Gomis has displayed a superior fight IQ within the UFC. Almeida should theoretically have an advantage with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he has yet to implement these skills in the Octagon. On the feet, Gomis should press Almeida and potentially work towards a finish. With that said, this line looks close to efficiency. With perhaps a little juice left to squeeze, Gomis will be the official play.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: William Gomis -150
Best UFC Paris Picks: Taylor Lapilus vs. Muin Gafurov Odds
Taylor Lapilus: -190 | Muin Gafurov: +160
Back for his second stint in the UFC, Taylor Lapilus fights Muin Gafurov as a -190 favorite this weekend. After leaving the UFC in 2016, Lapilus has a 7-1 record on the regional scene and knocked out Demarte Pena in February of last year. Conversely, Gafurov lost his most recent fight against John Castaneda via decision in June of this year.
Lapilus has an 18-3 professional record to date. His wins include four knockouts and six submissions, while he has never been finished. His only loss within the UFC came to Erik Perez in 2015.Lapilus has a well-rounded but non-aggressive game. He landed 3.77 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.0 in his first UFC stint. He also averaged 0.58 takedowns per bout and has 81% defense.
Gafurov is 18-5 in his career at just 27 years old, and his record features 10 knockouts and seven submissions. Like Lapilus, he has never been finished in his career. Unlike Lapilus, he has never been able to find a win in the UFC. He lost both his Contender Series bout and his UFC debut, landing 3.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.9 in those fights. Gafurov does land 2.5 takedowns on average, but he also defends them at just 62%.
With Gafurov defending strikes at just 47% against the weakest competition in the UFC, a matchup against Lapilus does not bode well. Lapilus also has excellent takedown defense, which likely will neutralize any grappling exchanges. Back the veteran Lapilus.
Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Taylor Lapilus -190
Best UFC Paris Picks: Yanis Ghemmouri vs. Caolan Loughran Odds
Yanis Ghemmouri: +250 | Caolan Loughran: -320
Frenchman Yanis Ghemmouri battles Irish prospect Caolan Loughran as a +250 underdog in the bantamweight division. Now riding a nine-fight winning streak, Ghemmouri most recently defeated Mehmosh Raza via knockout in June of this year. The undefeated Loughran rides an eight-fight winning streak, capped off by a knockout win over Dylan Hazan.
Ghemmouri has a 12-1 record featuring three knockouts and four submission victories, and his lone loss came via submission back in 2015. One of the better newcomers on this card, Ghemmouri appears to have a better strength of schedule and more well-rounded game. He currently trains with UFC fighter Fares Ziam after previously fighting under the Brave FC promotion.
Loughran has a perfect 8-0 record with five knockouts and two submissions. Coming over from Cage Warriors, Loughran also appears to have a decent strength of schedule as well. Like Ghemmouri, Loughran has a well-rounded skill set, but he may also have a wrestling advantage. With that said, he does most of his damage on the feet.
This is an exciting clash of prospects, but Loughran appears to have the superior strength of schedule and more balance to his game after his Cage Warriors run. With that said, seeing a debuting fighter at -320 over another debuting fighter comes with some sticker shock. While this will not reach the top of the betting card, sprinkling the underdog Ghemmouri looks like the safer play.
