With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan Pick, Odds and Preview
Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan Odds
Anders-Pickett Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Nurmagomedov: -1500 | Almakhan: +650
Nurmagomedov -3.5: -525 | Almakhan +3.5: +330
Over 1.5: -166 | Under 1.5: +130
Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan Pick & Preview
Someone in the UFC matchmaking department has a bone to pick with Bekzat Almakhan (17-1). He enters his debut against the likely future Bantamweight champion, Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0).
The books have made the moneyline functionally impossible to bet on, as Nurmagomedov is a -1500 favorite.
Fortunately, the under, which sits in the plus money, is a worthy play for this one. One thing should be very clear about the UFC: don’t bet against any Nurmagomedov.
Umar is a cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and trained with Khabib’s father, Abdulmanap, before his unfortunate passing. To put a long story short, Umar has both the skill and training to win any fight he finds himself in.
This particular bout comes against a UFC rookie in Almakhan.
While Almakhan has a respectable professional record, he enters this fight both with less experience and very likely less talent.
Nonetheless, Almakhan has the knockout power necessary to stop the fight in the blink of an eye, which makes the -1500 line way too risky to play.
It’s likely that Almakhan doesn’t win if he doesn’t find a knockout. This bodes well for the under, which already has good odds given Umar’s talent and aggression. In Umar’s four fights, he won three by finish, two of which came by submission. This comes from the 4.28 takedowns he gets in 15 minutes of fight time.
Umar also lands a solid 4.85 significant strikes per minute. His pressure will be a lot for Almakhan to handle in his first entrance in the Octagon. Ultimately, with odds so heavily favoring Umar, there are two likely outcomes: Umar finishes Almakhan easily or Almakhan wins with a stunning knockout. Either way, it’s hard to picture this one being drawn out to the cards.
Best Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +130 at DraftKings
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