We’ve got another fun Fight Night card from the Las Vegas APEX facility tonight, and while it’s no pay-per-view card, there are still a few betting angles to exploit. Let’s get into our Victor Martinez–Tom Nolan pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Victor Martinez-Tom Nolan Pick, Odds and Preview
Martinez–Nolan Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Martinez: +340 | Nolan: -440
Martinez +3.5: +255 | Nolan -3.5: -370
Over 1.5: +110 | Under 1.5: -140
Martinez–Nolan Pick & Preview
For the last fight on the prelims, Victor Martinez (13-5) looks to shock the world as a heavy underdog against Tom Nolan (6-1). With such long odds and little meaningful data on each fighter, this is a fight to avoid. However, if you find a need to bet on this one, ride with Martinez as the underdog, given Nolan’s poor performance in his last fight.
Much of the focus coming into this bout is on Martinez’s poor performance on the Contender Series and in his debut. Some say he may be the worst Lightweight on the roster, with slow hands, which exposes him to severe damage from faster opponents.
On the flip side, the same commentators remark how fast and dynamic Tom Nolan looks, without much attention to the fact he was blown up by Nikolas Motta, who came into that fight with a 2-2 record landing only 33% of his significant strikes. Though Motta may be a more dynamic striker than Martinez, pinning Nolan as a -520 favorite is a headscratcher.
There are two main arguments for Nolan winning this fight. The first is the eye test. If you remove the fight against Motta, Nolan appears to have the edge in speed and ferocity on the feet compared to Martinez.
The other argument is pedigree prior to coming into the UFC, with Martinez having a longer journey in the regional scene as opposed to Nolan. However, dinging Martinez for this, when his last loss in the regional scene came in 2016 seems unfair.
Neither of these edges are meaningful enough, in my view, to justify setting a line with the implied probability of a Nolan victory sitting over 75%. With little data to go off of, there isn’t really an edge to find here.
I’ll likely sit this one out or throw a small-money bet on the heavy underdog to give it a bit more intrigue. My best advice would be to hit the bathroom or refill your drink during this one before the main card starts.
Best UFC Martinez–Nolan Bet & Pick: Martinez Moneyline (+340)
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