With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro Pick, Odds and Preview
Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Petrino: -370 | Pedro: +250
Petrino -3.5: -200 | Pedro +3.5: +150
Over 1.5: -145 | Under 1.5: +114
Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro Pick & Preview
In the penultimate fight of the night, Vitor Petrino (10-0) takes on Tyson Pedro (10-4).
With the lines so heavily in favor of Petrino, there isn’t much to get an edge on here. Nonetheless, if you’re going to bet on this, it’s best to take Petrino by decision.
Petrino is on the rise. He has scored three straight UFC wins after his time in the Contender Series. He implements a wrestling-heavy style with 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This will play well against Pedro who only defends the takedown at 52%.
If Petrino can attain takedowns, he can amass much-needed control time. With the potential to spend a lot of time on the ground, time will melt off the clock if Pedro can defend against the submission.
Neither fighter throws a particularly high number of strikes, with Petrino landing 3.07 significant strikes per minute and Pedro landing 3.11. Both fighters certainly have the knockout power necessary to end the fight in an instant.
However, they are also both measured in their approach, as both fighters absorb less than three significant strikes per minute.
The implied probability for Petrino to win by decision sits at about 25%. This is already eight percent below his UFC career rate, as he won one of three bouts by decision. While it’s too small of a sample size to bank on too much, his finishes came later in the fight than what would be expected by a stoppage artist.
His first finish was headed directly toward a decision before Petrino found an arm triangle with 1:18 left in the fight. After that, Petrino knocked his opponent out a minute into the second round. However, the knockout came after he landed only eight significant strikes.
With such a low output, he’ll have trouble ending the fight early unless he lands something flush. I expect the bout to mostly be spent on the ground with Petrino in top position. While Pedro has knockout power and can end the fight in an instant, his lack of output will most likely hurt him in the long run if he can’t knock Petrino out.
Best Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro pick: Petrino to Win by Decision +275 at DraftKings
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