With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Vivian Araujo-Natalia Silva pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Vivian Araujo-Natalia Silva Pick, Odds and Preview
Vivian Araujo-Natalia Silva Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight
Araujo: +260 | Silva: -390
Araujo +3.5: +110 | Silva -3.5: -145
Over 2.5: -315 | Under 2.5: +230
Vivian Araujo-Natalia Silva Pick & Preview
In the only women’s bout on the main card, Viviane Araujo (12-5) faces off against Natalia Silva (16-5-1). The result may put the log-jammed women’s flyweight division on notice.
With Silva’s incredible striking ability, all that will save Araujo from getting a knockout is her toughness — but with the odds at +500 for Silva to finish the job, I will take my chances fading Araujo
If you haven’t watched a Silva fight, you may think I’m exaggerating by saying that she may have the biggest advantage in striking relative to her position in the rankings out of any fighter on the UFC roster.
Just one look at her opponents at the end of their bouts with Silva should be enough to prove this isn’t hyperbole, and watching her tape confirms that she has a stark advantage on the feet against every fighter around her rank in the division.
With such an advantage, it’s unsurprising that Silva knocked out two of her four UFC opponents. However, even the two that made it to the final bell were wobbled at multiple points throughout the fight, and they easily could have been finished at any moment.
In a division that only sees 18% of fights end in a KO/TKO, a 50% knockout rate is impressive regardless of whether it could be higher.
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Silva’s opponent, Araujo, is a UFC veteran with ten fights so far. While it may seem risky to bet on a person who wasn’t knocked out in any of her previous fights to succumb to one this time, Araujo never faced anyone like Silva. Araujo’s ten opponents have fought a combined 171 times in the UFC and only totaled five knockouts. No fighter recorded more than one. Despite the small sample size, Silva’s knockout rate will never come close to sitting at the 4% rate Araujo’s opponents have combined for.
Araujo has respectable striking numbers on the surface, landing 4.34 significant strikes per minute and defending at a rate of 55%. Nonetheless, she depends on getting the fight to the ground, as all but one of her decision victories came with grappling playing a significant role. In her four decision losses, she could not get the fight to the ground and was pieced up handily.
With Silva’s power and technique, Araujo will have trouble bringing the fight to a decision without the takedown. However, Silva is not simply a striker. She boasts an impressive 92% takedown defense rate and displayed good ground defense the sole time she was taken down against Tereza Bleda.
Silva has every chance to make it to the top of women’s flyweight quickly if she can maintain her pace. I expect this fight to go the same way her previous efforts have — with a knockout always on the horizon. The implied odds for Silva to win by knockout are trading at only 16%, making this wager a long-shot bet worth playing.
Vivian Araujo-Natalia Silva Pick: Silva by KO/TKO/DQ +500 at DraftKings
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