With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Pick, Odds and Preview
Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Rodriguez: -150 | Ortega: +115
Rodriguez -5.5: -105 | Ortega +5.5: -125
Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: +130
Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Pick & Preview
The first fight between Yair Rodriguez (16-4) and Brian Ortega (15-3) ended in unfortunate fashion after Ortega was injured.
Hopefully, this Saturday will have a more definitive result between two of the top contenders in the Featherweight division.
Rodriguez is the slight favorite, but I would still ride with him in a fight that should showcase his superior striking.
We’ve seen Ortega struggle when he gets to the highest reaches of the division. While he almost submitted former champion Alexander Volkanovski in their title fight, he was thoroughly outclassed on the feet.
He absorbed 214 significant strikes while landing only 88 of his own. In his title fight against Max Holloway, he was battered so heavily that Holloway took his hands to show him how to defend himself in the middle of the fight.
These two fights no doubt contribute heavily to Ortega’s poor strike defense numbers, absorbing a whopping 6.66 significant strikes per minute at a 49% defense rate. Another reason is Ortega’s heavy-pressure style. In his last fight against Rodriguez, Ortega plodded forward through the entire first round, getting tagged with heavy shots.
He can’t afford to come into this fight with the same strategy because Rodriguez is too dangerous. In his 10 UFC victories, Rodriguez scored knockouts in four, although one of them came from the Ortega injury. Rodriguez lands at a solid rate, tagging opponents with 4.63 significant strikes per minute, at a respectable 46% rate. This compares favorably with Ortega’s 4.19 significant strikes per minute and 38% hit rate.
Ortega’s biggest advantage will come on the ground, as he is a dangerous submission grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He can certainly take advantage of Rodriguez’s poor takedown defense, successfully defending only 59% of the time. However, to do so, Ortega will have to increase his takedown rate, as he only lands 0.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. Part of his low takedown numbers comes from his inefficiency, as he only successfully earns a takedown 23% of the time. To pose a threat to Rodriguez on the ground, he will need to find a way to get him there.
One element that is likely to play a factor in the fight is the year-and-a-half hiatus Ortega took between his last fight and this one. While it isn’t the longest layoff we’ve seen, ring rust and fatigue are real risks, particularly in a five-round co-main event against a high-paced and dangerous striker. Ultimately, the books haven’t given enough of an edge to Rodriguez at -150. If he can avoid the submission, he should be able to take this one either by knockout or by decision.
Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Pick: Rodriguez ML -150 at DraftKings
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