The NASCAR Cup Series regular season will roar into action at the Daytona 500 on Sunday, Feb. 19. Bettors have just over a month to get their preseason action down on championship futures for this year’s season. Last year’s champion, Joey Logano, isn’t favored to repeat — four drivers own shorter odds across the major sportsbooks. Bettors looking for an edge should tail these 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship betting predictions.
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2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions
Betting Trends for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
The sportsbooks usually get the betting odds for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship correct. Last year’s winner, Joey Logano, opened the year at 12-1. Three of the four drivers who competed in the Final 4 began the year with odds of 20-1 or shorter. The lone exception, Ross Chastain (80-1), benefited from the uncertainty surrounding the NextGen car.
The books were even more accurate in previous years. In 2021, each of the Championship 4 drivers opened the campaign with odds of 10-1 or shorter. Eventual champion Kyle Larson boasted the longest odds of the bunch. In 2020, three of the Championship 4 drivers opened the year with odds of 10-1 or shorter. Chase Elliott, the eventual champion and only exception, opened with odds of 11-1.
Elliott, Larson and Logano all won the season-ending event at Phoenix Raceway in their championship campaigns. The Cup Series moved its season finale from Homestead-Miami Speedway to Arizona before the 2020 season began, and since then, drivers with an edge at rougher, shorter tracks have fared well in the finale. All three eventual champions scored a top-10 result at Phoenix in the spring in the year of their championship win — and, except for Elliott, in the year immediately before they won the title. Elliott finished 14th in the Phoenix spring race in 2019.
Comparator tracks speak to the importance of running well at rougher, shorter tracks. Elliott won at Bristol (All-Star) and Martinsville in 2020. He led 114 laps of the Southern 500 at Darlington before crashing out while racing for the lead. Larson won at Nashville and Bristol in 2021. He also finished runner-up at Darlington twice. Logano won at the LA Coliseum (Busch Clash), Darlington and Gateway in 2022. As a result, performance at Darlington and Phoenix will weigh heavily on my betting predictions for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Anyone who watched last year’s NASCAR Cup Series season knows that Ryan Blaney should’ve finished the year with multiple wins. But small mistakes, poor strategy calls and bad luck combined to leave Blaney winless — and nearly out of the playoffs — last season. However, Blaney’s remarkable consistency helped him point his way through to the Round of 8 before his elimination at Martinsville Speedway.
Blaney performed well at the primary benchmark tracks, Phoenix and Darlington. He dominated the spring Phoenix race by leading 143 laps but lost the lead due to a late-race caution. He then nearly won the season-ending race at Phoenix but took things easy on his teammate, Joey Logano, who was competing for a championship. He finished only 17th and 13th in the two Darlington races but had run up front until late in the Southern 500.
Blaney’s third-place finishes at Nashville and Martinsville, along with his fourth-place finish at Gateway, make it easier to overlook those Darlington numbers. His odds range from 16-2 at Caesars to 12-1 at BetMGM. Bettors should head there for the best price on the market.
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Logano recorded dominant numbers at important tracks last year and could easily do so again this year. Although Team Penske and the Ford camp lacked the raw speed the Toyotas and Chevrolets showed at smooth intermediate tracks, the Blue Ovals have had a full offseason to close the gap.
Like Blaney, Joey Logano performed well at the benchmark tracks. He recorded finishes of eighth and first at Phoenix after leading laps in both events. He won the spring Darlington race and finished fourth in the Southern 500 after leading 64 laps. The talent that earned Logano the nickname “Sliced Bread” shined through in 2022.
Most books don’t expect a repeat champion, but Logano showed an edge in the NextGen car that warrants far shorter odds than what you’ll find at BetMGM. Logano sits at 14-1 to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship over there. In contrast, Caesars has this line down to 7-1. You’ll get double the value by playing this at BetMGM.
Tyler Reddick: +2000 at BetMGM
Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell came out of seemingly nowhere to nearly win the championship last year. Tyler Reddick may enter that conversation with a similar run this year. With lengthy odds of 20-1, Reddick makes for a sharp longshot play.
The talented young driver will benefit from a change of scenery. Reddick won three races for Richard Childress Racing and Chevrolet last year. He’ll now pilot the No. 45 Toyota for Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing. Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing’s drivers last season, combined for two wins and routinely showed race-winning speed. In contrast, Reddick often had to overdrive his sometimes-mediocre RCR Racing equipment.
Reddick overcame his equipment at the benchmark tracks. He finished second in the spring Darlington race after leading 10 laps and finished third in the Southern 500. He nearly won last year’s spring Phoenix race before finishing third. He struggled in the Phoenix finale, but he had announced his decision to leave RCR by then and was functionally a lame-duck driver.
Reddick’s odds vary from 12-1 at Caesars to 20-1 at BetMGM, so those looking to make a longshot wager for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship should head there for the best price.
