It may not feel like it, but after last weekend’s event at Richmond Raceway, the NASCAR Cup Series is through nearly 20% of its schedule this year. While tons of on-track action remains, the Hendrick Motorsports drivers have emerged as clear favorites to win this year’s Cup Series title. Bettors looking for an edge should tail these 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship betting predictions.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions
Hendrick Motorsports is Lapping the Field
Because of how the Cup Series championship works, drivers who perform well at the season-ending track, Phoenix Raceway, and its closest comparator, Richmond Raceway, have a massive advantage.
Last year, Team Penske dominated the spring Phoenix and Richmond races. Ryan Blaney led the most laps after starting from the pole in both events. His teammate, Joey Logano, also led laps in both events. Logano then dominated the summer Richmond race by leading 55.5% of the laps before winning the championship in a race that he and Blaney controlled.
In the three years that Phoenix has hosted the championship race, the driver who led the most laps across the Phoenix and Richmond spring races has finished no worse than third in the final event. Chase Elliott (2020) won the title. Denny Hamlin (2021) earned a spot in the Championship 4 and finished third in the final race. Ryan Blaney (2022) missed the Championship 4 because of his inability to win but finished second to his teammate in the final race.
Hendrick Motorsports has done this year what Team Penske did last year. Kyle Larson won the pole at Phoenix before leading 201 laps and finishing fourth. He then led the second-most laps at Richmond and won the race. His teammate, William Byron, won at Phoenix after leading the second-most laps. Byron then went on to lead the most laps at Richmond before getting moved on a late-race restart and finishing 24th.
But unlike Team Penske, which last year was a three-car operation with two dominant veterans and one unestablished rookie, Hendrick Motorsports features a four-car stable with drivers who can win on any given weekend: Larson, Byron, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. After the early results at Phoenix and Richmond, it would take a massive rally for any team to dethrone Hendrick as the championship front-runner.
Can Kyle Larson Win His Second Title?
After Richmond, Kyle Larson has unsurprisingly emerged as the favorite to win the Cup Series title. Still, at odds of 7-1 (12.5%), bettors can secure plenty of value at the market price. Although Larson currently trails both of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates in the points standings, the Cup Series has run two of its seven events at superspeedways, or drafting tracks, at which Larson has historically struggled. Only four more of those remain on the schedule, and only one comes in the NASCAR playoffs.
Larson has an easy path to the title. With a win at Richmond, he is likely locked into the playoffs. No full-time driver with a win by the cutoff race has missed the playoffs in their current format. Although his early season results haven’t been jaw-dropping, as he owns just six playoff points to Byron’s 15, Larson’s best tracks by average finish — Nashville (2.5), Dover (6.9) and Darlington (9.2) are yet to come. He should score some extra playoff points at those events.
But even if Larson lags behind other drivers in the race for playoff points, the playoff schedule benefits him more than most. He’ll likely enter the playoffs with enough of an advantage to get through the first two rounds easily, but if he doesn’t, he has races at Darlington, Kansas and Bristol in the first and events at Texas and the Charlotte Roval in the next. Larson has won at each of those tracks except Darlington in the past.
The penultimate round features Homestead, a track at which Larson’s driving style works incredibly well. He won the lone Homestead race last year after leading 74.5% of the laps. If Larson needs a win to advance in that round, expect him to come through in the clutch at the South Florida venue.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Prediction: Kyle Larson 7-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
How Should You Handle the Other Hendrick Drivers?
The rest of the Hendrick Motorsports stable offers plenty of value, but, as the saying goes, don’t put your eggs in one basket. The effect and consequences of any potential late-season penalties would likely be distributed across all four drivers. Likewise, if another team can find some speed later in the year, Hendrick Motorsports drivers may not have as much of an automatic advantage.
That said, betting on Larson (7-1), Byron (8-1), Elliott (10-1) and Bowman (30-1) is still a profitable proposition. The sum of their implied odds (35.9%) is still well below 100%. After what they have shown so far this year, Hendrick Motorsports likely has a better chance of winning the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship than not.
I recommend either spreading your action across the entire Team Hendrick stable or targeting Larson individually. Elliott, if he can win a race after returning from his leg operation, will likely enter the playoffs with a playoff point disadvantage. Bowman is yet to win a race this year or qualify for a Championship 4. Byron poses the biggest threat to Larson but has often struggled with consistency and is also yet to qualify for the Championship 4.
