With the start of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season just weeks away, bettors looking to get action on season race win totals must get their wagers down soon. Currently, only Caesars Sportsbook has made win total markets available for bettors, but value abounds among their limited offerings. Here are the best NASCAR win total bets for the 2023 Cup Series season, including ones for Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott.
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Best 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Win Total Bets
Alex Bowman O/U 1.5 Total Wins
This win total market offers the most value on the board. Fresh off a one-win season, Alex Bowman owns a win total of 1.5 at Caesars. Bowman has won multiple races in a season just once in his career. He did so in 2021 in a year that Hendrick Motorsports dominated by winning 17 of the 36 events. Bowman recorded four wins despite leading only 161 laps — fewer than 11 other full-time drivers.
The NextGen car substantially increased the parity within the Cup Series. Only nine drivers finished with two or more wins last year, and Hendrick Motorsports won six fewer races than it did the year before. Worse, Bowman struggled with the new car. His average finish (16.7) ranked 17th among the drivers scheduled to compete full-time again this year. He trailed all three of his teammates, Chase Elliott (12.5), Kyle Larson (14.1) and William Byron (15.6) by a healthy margin.
I would have set this market to 0.5 with the juice stacked heavily on the over. But for whatever reason, Caesars has it set to 1.5 with the under well into the plus money. Since Bowman has failed to win multiple races in four of his five full-time seasons with Hendrick Motorsports, fading him at this price is a +EV NASCAR betting pick.
Best Bet: Alex Bowman Under 1.5 Total Wins (+120) at Caesars
Tyler Reddick O/U 1.5 Total Wins
After winning three races in the No. 8 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing last season, Tyler Reddick will pilot the No. 45 Toyota for 23XI Racing this season. He’ll take over for veteran Kurt Busch, who, together with Bubba Wallace, brought the No. 45 Toyota home in first place twice. Reddick must only meet the standard they set last year to cash the over, and all signs point to him doing that with ease.
Reddick scored his first-ever Cup Series win last year at Road America. But before that win, he nearly won at Auto Club, Phoenix and the Bristol Dirt Track. Reddick went on to score another two wins, one at the Indianapolis Road Course and another at Texas, before the end of the year. He notched a total of three wins, nine top 3s and 10 top 5s.
Although Caesars has stacked the juice on the over for Reddick’s win total, the implied odds (60.8%) still aren’t high enough. Reddick proved last year that he can succeed at any track type on the circuit and should contend for wins every week. Reddick may lack the experience of most other Cup Series contenders, but he more than makes up for it in raw talent.
Best Bet: Tyler Reddick Over 1.5 Total Wins (-155) at Caesars
Chase Elliott O/U 3.5 Total Wins
Chase Elliott piloted his No. 9 Chevrolet to a series-high five wins in 2022, tying his career-best performance from 2020. He also recorded the best average finish (12.5) and led the most laps (857). It’s worth noting that his win at Pocono came after the sport disqualified Denny Hamlin — Elliott led no laps in the event. Elliott may struggle to post similar numbers again this year, especially if his late-season slump continues into 2023.
Elliott did most of his damage early last season. Over the final 10 races — the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs — he scored one win, two top 5s and three top 10s. His average finish (17.5) and total laps led (138) fell off significantly from earlier in the season. Although Elliott was one of the fastest drivers to adjust to the NextGen car, other drivers had simply caught up by the season’s end.
Unlike other drivers, Elliott tends to dominate at specific tracks: he excels on concrete, at superspeedways and at road courses. Of Elliott’s five wins, three came on concrete and one came on a superspeedway. He needed a disqualification to win at the lone exception, Pocono. Of Elliott’s 857 laps led, 74.7% came in the 17 races (47.2% of the schedule) that meet those criteria. Getting Elliott at +100 or better to win less than four races makes for a +EV bet.
Best Bet: Chase Elliott Under 3.5 Total Wins (+100) at Caesars
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