With NASCAR’s Busch Light Clash at the LA Coliseum scheduled for this weekend, the start of the sport’s regular season looms on the horizon. Bettors still have a few weeks to get their futures bets down on the championship markets in the Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series. Those looking for an edge should tail these 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship betting predictions.
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2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Predictions
Betting Trends for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship
Unlike the Cup Series, the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship favorites often emerge within the first few events, and rarely will those change. Only five or six drivers have a genuine shot to win the championship at the beginning of each year.
However, this year could be different. The departures of Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson and A.J. Allmendinger, three of the top-five drivers from last year, leave a massive void at the top. The two who will return, Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry, slot close to the top of betting chart at 4-1. They trail only Cole Custer at 3-1. John Hunter Nemechek (6-1) and Sam Mayer (8-1) round out this year’s top five.
The same five teams owners have won the last 16 Xfinity Series Championships. Two of them, Penske Racing and RFK Racing, won’t have an entry in this year’s series. That leaves Joe Gibbs Racing, JR Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing. Those teams will field a combined eight full-time entries, and those eight drivers all rank inside the top 10 in the betting markets. The two drivers inside the top 10 from other teams are Cole Custer and Daniel Hemric.
With the Xfinity Series championship race moved to Phoenix, drivers must perform well there to win the championship. Ty Gibbs, the 2022 Xfinity Series Champion, finished second there in his lone 2021 start before scoring a sixth-place finish in the spring of 2022 and a win in the fall. Daniel Hemric, the champion in 2021, began his Xfinity Series career with four top 10s at Phoenix before winning the fall race and the title in 2021. Austin Cindric, the 2020 champion, had scored two top 5s and four top 10s before winning the fall event and the title that year.
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Justin Allgaier: +400 at Caesars Sportsbook
Taking any driver to win the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship at odds of 4-1 isn’t the best bet. The implied odds (20%) don’t leave much margin for error. But of all the drivers in the field, Justin Allgaier has the most experience and the most impressive Phoenix resume, and it’s surprising to see Custer rank ahead of him in the betting odds. Those making their NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship predictions cannot ignore the series’ longest-tenured driver.
Allgaier leads all active Xfinity Series drivers in series wins (19) and wins at Phoenix (2). He scored his first in 2017 and second in 2019. Allgaier has finished no worse than 10th at Phoenix since 2020 and has led laps in seven of the last 10 Xfinity Series races there. Custer trails him in total wins (10) and is yet to win at Phoenix. He has scored top 10s in five of his six Xfinity Series starts at the track but has led only twice for a total of six laps.
John Hunter Nemechek: +600 at Caesars Sportsbook
Everyone thought that John Hunter Nemechek would win the NASCAR Truck Series Championship last year. However, early-season struggles and mechanical failures kept him out of the Championship 4. But despite a disappointing 2022, Nemechek will take the reins of the No. 20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2023.
Ty Gibbs won the 2022 Xfinity Series Championship in the No. 54 Toyota. That car will not run this year. Instead, the team will field the Nos. 18 through 20, and both the No. 18 and No. 19 ran last year. While it’s unclear if the No. 20 team will draw all or most of its resources from Gibbs’ championship-winning program, Nemechek will have a chance to prove himself in elite equipment.
Nemechek doesn’t have jaw-dropping Xfinity Series statistics, but he often found himself driving for mediocre teams. He got some part-time chances with Chip Ganassi Racing, spent a full season with GMS Racing, then made spot starts for Sam Hunt Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing. He almost drove Joe Gibbs’ No. 54 Toyota to a win at Phoenix in the fall of 2021. Last spring, he led 11 laps in mid-pack Sam Hunt Racing’s No. 26 Toyota before finishing fifth, the second-best result for the team all season.
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