We had a fast horse in last weekend’s race at Dover Motor Speedway, but unfortunately, Kyle Larson got caught up in Ross Chastain’s mess early in the event. You can’t win them all. Let’s get back to our winning ways this weekend in Kansas Speedway, where the AdventHealth 400 is scheduled for Sunday, May 7 at 3 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Chase Elliott stands out as an interesting NASCAR bet early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction AdventHealth 400 | Kansas
Which Drivers Will Have an Edge at Kansas Speedway?
Kansas Speedway is a smooth, banked 1.5-mile tri-oval. That means it primarily rewards teams with an edge in raw speed and tire management matters much less than at other tracks.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, another smooth, banked 1.5-mile tri-oval compares favorably to Kansas. Last year, eight of the top-10 drivers in driver rating in the spring Kansas race also scored a top-10 driver rating at the spring Las Vegas event. The winner, Kurt Busch, led laps in Vegas.
We’ll focus our attention on drivers who meet at least one of those two criteria: a top-10 driver rating at Kansas or at least one lap led. Strong green-flag speed ratings will also help. These metrics all point to value on drivers from two teams: Joe Gibbs Racing (and its affiliate, 23XI Racing) and Hendrick Motorsports.
Of the top-10 drivers by driver rating at Las Vegas this season, seven ran for either Hendrick or Gibbs/23XI. The top-3 drivers in the metric, William Byron, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman, all ran for Hendrick. Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace also scored top-10 driver ratings, while Tyler Reddick wasn’t far behind in 12th.
Back Team Hendrick — Just Not Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson has brought the fastest car to several of the most recent NASCAR Cup Series events. Yet he only has two wins this season because of other drivers — Ryan Preece took him out of the running at Bristol Dirt, and Ross Chastain’s sloppy driver cost him a shot at Dover. But Larsons’ consistent speed has led bookmarkers to list him as a 5-1 favorite this weekend, which opens up value on some of his rivals and teammates.
I want action on every Hendrick Motorsports driver not named Kyle Larson. William Byron, who dominated the spring race at Las Vegas, sits up at 8-1 on BetMGM because of his unremarkable recent form. Chase Elliott hasn’t produced a top-tier result since getting back behind the wheel of his No. 9 Chevrolet, and his odds have ticked up to 13-1 at Tipico as a result. Josh Berry, who will fill in for Alex Bowman, owns odds of 60-1 at Tipico.
The Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets put together a 1-2-3 finish at Las Vegas just a few weeks ago. This track is a great comparator circuit, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Byron dominate — or Elliott get right. Larson poses a legitimate threat, but his inflated odds have created better numbers down the rest of the board. Let’s hope one of his teammates can get the best of him on Sunday.
Best NASCAR Bet: William Byron 8-1 for 0.23 Unit at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott 13-1 for 0.14 Unit at Tipico
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What About the Toyota Camp?
We can’t forget about the Toyotas, can we? The No. 45 23XI Toyota swept the Kansas events last year with two different drivers behind the wheel. Kurt Busch won in the spring and Bubba Wallace won in the fall. Although Wallace will return to the No. 23 and Tyler Reddick now drivers the No. 45, bettors should keep their faith in the 23XI Racing stable.
Wallace showed impressive speed back in Kansas, and Reddick wasn’t far behind him. Wallace finished a respectable fourth after starting in 13th and steadily working his way up over the course of the race. He finished as the top driver not racing for Hendrick. His teammate, Tyler Reddick, had to start 34th due to an engine change but managed to lead three laps and record the 10th-best green flag speed rating before finishing in 15th.
The books are unfortunately quite keep on Reddick and Wallace this weekend. Fortunately, some books are less keen on them than others. Reddick slots in at 7-1 or 15-2 on most books, but we can lock in the 8-1 via BetMGM. Reddick started on the pole for the fall Kansas race and led 38 laps before an accident ended his day early. Let’s bet on a bounce-back showing in this weekend’s race.
Best NASCAR Bet: Tyler Reddick 8-1 for 0.23 Unit at BetMGM
