I hope you tailed — we scored a massive hit on Martin Truex Jr. at 31-1 in last week’s outright’s column. Truex closed at only 10-1 after his strong showing in practice and qualifying, so it pays to bet early. After a week off, the NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Nashville Superspeedway for this year’s Ally 400 on Sunday, June 25 at 7 p.m. ET, weather permitting. I’m here to break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action in Nashville — we’re riding with Ross Chastain here.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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NASCAR Predictions for the Ally 400 at Nashville: Race Preview
How do We Handicap This Track?
Nashville Superspeedway is a weird venue. The 1.3-mile oval is the longest concrete track on the schedule and there isn’t a great comparator track for it. Nashville’s 14-degree banking distinguishes it from the next-biggest concrete track, Dover, which features relatively high banking. Likewise, the relatively low banking makes comparing this track to Darlington, another 1.3-mile track with high tire wear, quite difficult. Gateway, yet another 1.3-mile track, features similar banking but without as much tire wear.
So how will we handicap this event? We could turn to past results, but there aren’t many of them to dig into. Only two Cup Series events have taken place here. Kyle Larson dominated the inaugural event during his championship run in 2021 before Chase Elliott won a rain-delayed race in 2022. We’ll lean on data from those events along with this year’s results from Dover, which, at least last year, were surprisingly predictive of performance in the Music City.
The Dover data should be useful again this season. Last year’s Nashville winner, Elliott, also won at Dover earlier in the year. Of the seven drivers who recorded driver ratings of 100 or better in Nashville, four, Elliott, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch, also did so in Dover. Three of the top four drivers in laps led at Dover, Busch (103), Elliott (73) and Denny Hamlin (67), combined to lead 210 of the 300 laps in Nashville.
NASCAR Predictions for the Ally 400 at Nashville: Best Bets
Will Martin Truex Jr. Go on a Roll?
After his big win at Sonoma, the books have adjusted the odds for Martin Truex Jr. accordingly — right? Kind of. He slots in at 15-2 (11.8%) on DraftKings Sportsbook to win in Nashville. Truex ran great here last season and won the first two stages. Unfortunately, the weather and conditions hurt him, and he wound up finishing 22nd. Still, he recorded the event’s second-best rating at 111.
Joe Gibbs Racing should’ve won this event last year. The team combined to lead 250 of the 300 laps and controlled the top three slots by driver rating. Although Hendrick Motorsports, especially Kyle Larson, have looked great this year, they haven’t looked as good at tracks like Nashville. Hendrick has fared best with the new short-track package, which their Garage 56 entry at Le Mans helped produce.
Although William Byron performed exceptionally well at Dover and led a dominant 193 of 400 laps, his teammates didn’t contribute. Larson got knocked out while both Chase Elliott and Josh Berry were stuck at the bottom of the top 10. In contrast, Joe Gibbs drivers controlled half of the top-6 spots in both the final running order and in driver rating, including Truex, who led the third-most laps and recorded the third-best driver rating.
Best NASCAR Bet: Martin Truex Jr. 15-2 for 0.2 Units at DraftKings
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Will Ross Chastain Finally Get a Win This Year?
The No. 1 Chevrolet found victory lane twice last year with Ross Chastain behind the wheel. It hasn’t returned since. The field, especially Hendrick Motorsports, has caught up with Trackhouse Racing. But despite those trends and changes, Chastain is a decent bet to take the checkered flag for this year’s Ally 400 Nashville.
Chastain has a more impressive resume at Nashville than his odds suggest. He finished second here in 2021 while driving for the now-defunct Chip Ganassi Racing then finished fifth in 2022 with Trackhouse. The laps led haven’t been there for him — he only led four in the inaugural event and none last year — but the driver rating has been there for him.
Let’s back Chastain to win this one at odds of 11-1 (8.3%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. He didn’t win at Dover, but he recorded the best driver rating and led the second-most laps on his way to a runner-up finish. Trackhouse Racing and Chastain have had race-winning speed but just haven’t found a way to get the job done. They have a better shot of putting it all together this weekend than the market thinks.
Best NASCAR Bet: Ross Chastain 11-1 for 0.12 Units at FanDuel
