The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll on from Charlotte, which plays host to the lone playoff race on a road course. Held annually at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course — or ROVAL, for short — this event has produced no shortage of fireworks. The 2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400 is scheduled for Sunday, October 8 at 1 p.m. ET at Charlotte. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Charlotte — we’re trusting Chris Buescher to run well and score a bid to the Round of 8.
NASCAR Predictions for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte: Race Preview
Bank of America ROVAL 400 Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Race Preview for the Bank of America ROVAL 400
The Charlotte ROVAL is a non-technical road course, which means it doesn't reward raw talent as much as traditional road courses do. Treating the ROVAL as one of those tracks isn't especially smart. Even though the four-ever winners at this track, Chase Elliott (2), Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney aren't surprising names to see in victory lane at a road course, the average finish of road course ringers like A.J. Allmendinger (21 in two starts) and Michael McDowell (25 in three starts) demonstrate that equipment matters more here than skill.
Another noteworthy factoid for this event is that NASCAR has decided to re-implement stage cautions for this event. That means the early dominance we saw from McDowell at the Indy Road Course and from William Byron at Watkins Glen won't carry as much of an advantage. You can expect playoff drivers fighting at the cut line to try for points at the stage breaks, which may put them on disadvantageous strategies for the full event.
The last important note is that this event is an elimination event for playoff drivers. The only two drivers to have punched their tickets to the next round are Byron and Blaney. Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock to make the next round with a 50-point lead on the cut line. But after that, it's Bell (+22), Chris Buescher (+19), Martin Truex Jr. (+17), Larson (+15), Brad Keselowski (+2), Tyler Reddick (-2), Bubba Wallace (-9), Ross Chastain (-10) and Kyle Busch (-26).
NASCAR Predictions for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte: Best Bets
NASCAR Charlotte ROVAL Prediction No. 1: Toyota Wins
I have mixed feelings about backing Toyota here. On the one hand, Tyler Reddick owns the best average finish here of all active drivers (7.3), and five of the six Toyota drivers are still in the playoffs, making a win on Sunday that much more meaningful. On the other hand, none of the Toyota drivers have locked up a bid to the Round of 8, which makes racing for stage points, not the win, more strategic.
I'm still siding with Toyota because of the posted number. You'll find Toyota as long as +260 (27.8%) at Caesars to win Sunday's race, which is not an efficient price. Take a look at the numbers available at other public books: +240 (29.4%) at DraftKings and +220 (31.3%) at FanDuel. That isn't a massive disparity, but it's a meaningful one, especially with Toyota drivers composing 41.7% of the remaining playoff field.
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Before we dive a bit deeper into the math, let's break down which Toyota drivers I'm most excited about. Obviously, Reddick stands a great chance -- he has finished no worse than 12th here with a runner-up finish in 2021. This season marks the first in which he is still in the title hunt at the ROVAL, which may change his late-race calculus somewhat.
A few other names in the Toyota camp stand out. We're getting exposure to last year's winner, Christopher Bell, who led the most laps at the Chicago Street Course (37) and the second most at the Indy Road Course (11). We're also getting action on Martin Truex Jr., who won at Sonoma, and Denny Hamlin, who led the second-most laps at Sonoma before finishing runner-up at Watkins Glen. Hamlin could even lock up a bid to the next round with points in Stage 1, which may put him in a spot to go all-out for a win.
Per the odds at Caesars Sportsbook, buying Toyota gets us exposure to Reddick (12.5%), Truex (6.3%), Hamlin (6.3%) and Bell (5.9%) -- good for an implied total of 31% already -- along with Ty Gibbs (5.3%) and longshot Bubba Wallace (1.3%). While the hold on the outright markets at Caesars far outpaces the hold on their manufacturer markets, it's encouraging to see Toyota camp's cumulative implied odds at 37.6%.
NASCAR Charlotte ROVAL Bet: Toyota +260 at Caesars
NASCAR Charlotte ROVAL Prediction No. 2: Chris Buescher Gets a Top 10
Isaiah, are we really foregoing the outright markets for a top-10 bet priced right at even? Yes, and I'll tell you why. Few drivers have been more consistent at road courses in the NextGen era than RFK Racing's Chris Buescher. This season, Buescher has scored a top-10 in four of the five road course events. His lone failure to do so came at the Indy Road Course when he finished 11th. Last year, Buescher scored a top-10 finish in five of the six road course events. He only failed to do so at the Circuit of the Americas. That gives us an 81.8% win rate.
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Buescher has been good at the Charlotte ROVAL and other non-technical road courses in the past. He scored a sixth-place finish here last season and a third-place finish the year before that. Buescher has just one top-10 finish at the Indy Road Course, but again, he scored an 11th-place finish this year and a 12th-place finish in 2021. The Cup Series made a pair of trips to the Daytona Road Course between 2020 and 2021, and Buescher scored a fifth-place and 11th-place finish in those events as well.
I don't usually like betting on top-10 markets at odds of even or shorter, but Chris Buescher at a road course -- especially when he needs a good finish to secure his spot in the Round of 8 -- is one of the few exceptions I'm willing to make. You'll only find this at +100 (50%) at Bet365. It's trading at -120 (54.6%) at Caesars and -135 (57.5%) at DraftKings. Again, this play has a win rate of 81.8% over the last 11 road course races. Even if this bet doesn't hit this Sunday, Bet365 has hung a bad number, so take advantage of it while you can.
NASCAR Charlotte ROVAL Bet: Chris Buescher T10 +100 at Bet365
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