Last weekend’s event in Atlanta wasn’t fun. We had action on both Brad Keselowski at 15-1 and Austin Cindric at 30-1. The two of them were swapping the lead back and forth as rain approached, but it didn’t come soon enough — both drivers had to pit for fuel, allowing William Byron to win the rain-shortened race. Let’s hope for better luck this weekend. We’ve got the Crayon 301 on Sunday, July 16 at 2:30 p.m. ET from New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at NHMS — we’re primarily riding with Kyle Larson, but Ryan Preece has value, too.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
NASCAR Predictions for the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Race Preview
What Do We Know About NHMS?
Let me start by saying that New Hampshire Motor Speedway is my home track. I saw my first NASCAR races there, and it has a special place in my heart — both as a fan and as a bettor. I didn’t have Aric Almirola winning in a huge upset at God knows what price in 2021, but I did have Christopher Bell winning in 2022, and we cashed an 18-1 ticket on him. I’m hoping to make it two in a row this weekend at 2023 Crayon 301.
Two notes stand out for handicapping New Hampshire in the NextGen Era. First, last year’s event at Richmond Raceway, another short, flat oval, proved somewhat predictive. All four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers led at least one lap and combined to lead 149 laps (37.3%). Martin Truex Jr., who would lead the most laps and record the best driver rating at NHMS months later, also paced the JGR field in both metrics. Christopher Bell, who took over the lead at NHMS late and won, clocked in right behind Truex in both metrics.
Second, we’ll see the new short-track package on display again. This means we’ll have wet-weather tires on hand, which could prove significant, as rain is in the forecast for most of the weekend. Further, the new short-track package features a low-downforce, high-horsepower setup that should benefit drivers with experience in modifieds. But perhaps most importantly, Hendrick Motorsports is the only team to have won in the new short-track package.
NASCAR Predictions for the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Best Bets
It’s Kyle Larson & Hendrick Motorsports’ Race to Lose
Thank goodness it’s been a while since we’ve seen the short-track package, because otherwise, the books may have priced the Hendrick Motorsports camp effectively. They have not. Three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers all own shorter odds than Kyle Larson, who slots in at only 9-1 (10%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Larson has won three of the four events in this package, and in the lone race he failed to win (Phoenix), he still led the most laps.
Let’s run through Larson and Hendrick Motorsports’ four races in this package. Larson began his time in it by leading 201 laps (63.4%) at Phoenix, only for his teammate, William Byron, to lead 64 (20.1%) and win. Larson finished fourth. He and Byron then dominated at Richmond by combining to lead 210 laps (52.5%). Martinsville went shakily, but Larson still won after leading 30 (8%) of the final laps. He then bounced back by dominating the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, leading all of the last 145 laps (72.5%).
The return of Chase Elliott makes picking an individual Hendrick Motorsports driver more difficult, especially since he finds himself in a must-win position for the playoffs. However, Larson has the best resume at NHMS of anyone in the Hendrick Motorsports stable. He has recorded four top-5s and six top-10s with three runner-up finishes here. Elliott has two top-fives and three top-10s, but he did finish runner-up last year. Byron is yet to score a top-10 here, while Alex Bowman has a lone top-10 in seven starts at NHMS with Hendrick Motorsports.
We could spread our units between Larson, Elliott and Byron, but the implied odds of doing so at the best market price are no better than +254.6 (28.2%). However, we can buy Hendrick Motorsports to win at New Hampshire at odds of only +300 (25%) via Caesars Sportsbook — lower than their own implied odds on the four Hendrick drivers, which slots in at +241.3 (29.3%). Let’s take advantage of that margin edge and spread just under a half-unit of action between Larson and the full Hendrick Motorsports roster to win the Crayon 301.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 9-1 for 0.08 Units at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Hendrick Motorsports 3-1 for 0.37 Units at Caesars
Don’t Forget About Ryan Preece
Although this season hasn’t gone as planned for Ryan Preece and the No. 41 Ford team, a win at New Hampshire would mostly wipe away all of their earlier mistakes. Preece has shown race-winning speed this year on short, flat ovals — he almost won the Clash at the Coliseum, and he started on the pole and led 135 laps (33.8%) at Martinsville before getting caught speeding on pit road. Preece’s teammate, Chase Briscoe, then took over the lead for another 109 laps (27.3%). If we get a longshot winner, it’ll likely come from the Stewart-Haas Racing stable.
We’re locking in on Preece because of his experience at NHMS and similar tracks in the Whelen Modified Tour. That series runs a low-downforce, high-horsepower package at different short, flat ovals across New England. Preece hasn’t been able to turn his four Cup Series starts here into anything better than a 16th-place finish, but he scored a runner-up here in the Xfinity Series back in 2017 before finishing third in 2018. In those three starts, only Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell and Brad Keselowski outran him.
We’re also targeting Preece as a top NASCAR bet for New Hampshire because he is mispriced relative to his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates, especially at Bet365. Preece owns odds of only 66-1 (1.5%) at Bet365, worse than Kevin Harvick at 9-1 (10%), Aric Almirola at 28-1 (3.5%) and Chase Briscoe at 40-1 (2.4%). You won’t find Preece longer than 55-1 (1.8%) at other books, either. Preece may need some good fortune to cross the line in first, but he is much better equipped to win this race than his odds suggest. If you haven’t signed up at Bet365, you can turn a $1 wager into $200 in bonus bets — just see the disclaimer above for details and disclaimers.
Best NASCAR Bet: Ryan Preece 66-1 for 0.05 Units at Bet365
