After a too-long offseason, the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series begins with the Great American Race. The Daytona 500 will get underway on Sunday, Feb. 19 at 2:30 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Justin Haley’s outright odds make him stand out as a value bet early this week.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction for the Daytona 500 | Feb. 19
Will Ryan Blaney Finally Return to Victory Lane?
The betting favorite for the 2023 Daytona 500 hasn’t won a NASCAR race since 2021. Ryan Blaney, driver of the No. 12 Ford for Team Penske, last took the checkered flag for a points-paying race at the 2021 Coke Zero 400. His no-win showing in 2022 wasn’t for a lack of strong performances — he nearly won the Daytona 500, dominated at Phoenix and Richmond in the spring, and scored runner-up finishes at Talladega and Phoenix late in the year.
Team Penske and Ford Racing have dominated the Daytona 500 of late. Blaney’s teammate, Austin Cindric, won last year’s event after blocking him while coming out of the final corner. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, then still a Team Penske driver, were running first and second in 2021 before accidentally taking each other out, leaving Michael McDowell to win. Blaney found himself racing against another Ford driver, Ryan Newman, for the win in 2020. Logano and McDowell were the only drivers competing against Denny Hamlin late in 2019.
Blaney’s bad luck has to end sometime. The books know this, which is why they’ve made him the favorite. Although Blaney’s 12-1 outright odds don’t offer as much value as other options, the No. 12 Ford has a better chance of coming home first than any other car in the field. Blaney has proven himself as a reliable drafting partner and his equipment won’t hold him back. Expect him to start the 2023 season off by sending a message.
Best NASCAR Bet: Ryan Blaney (+1200 for 0.15 Unit) at Caesars
Also Bet: Ryan Blaney Group A (+260 for 0.35 Unit) at DraftKings
Can Justin Haley Score an Incredible Upset… Again?
It’s easy to forget that Justin Haley has already won in the NASCAR Cup Series — and at this track in particular. He took home the checkered flag after a rain-shortened summer Daytona race back in 2019. That was before he even became a full-time driver in the Cup Series. Although Haley got lucky with a sharp strategy call, he is also one of the most talented superspeedway racers in NASCAR.
Haley’s dominant Xfinity Series resume at superspeedway tracks makes him an attractive NASCAR betting option this weekend. He owns four wins, five top-5s and nine top-10s across just 13 starts. That includes two first-place finishes at Daytona and one runner-up. Although Haley didn’t have the best 2022 season in the Cup Series, he managed to score four top-15 finishes across six superspeedway events. He also led nine laps across two superspeedway races, including eight at Daytona in the summer.
Now that Kaulig Racing has a full season of Cup Series action under its belt, expect the team to compete more aggressively at superspeedway events. The team has entered its top Xfinity Series driver, Chandler Smith, in a third car alongside both Haley and A.J. Allmendinger. Team owner Matt Kaulig has been very intentional with superspeedway strategy in the past, and the three-car lineup may give the team an advantage in the draft.
Best NASCAR Longshot Bet: Justin Haley (+5000 for 0.1 Unit) at FanDuel
Also Bet: Justin Haley Top 10 +230 for 0.4 Unit at FanDuel
Will Ross Chastain Smash Another Watermelon?
After languishing in obscurity for most of his career, Ross Chastain became a household name after pulling off a video-game move to pass several drivers on the last lap at Martinsville Speedway, keeping his championship hopes alive for another weekend.
This angle of Ross Chastain’s move #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/6tZObGPrSU
— Rubbin is Racing (@rubbinisracing) October 31, 2022
However, Chastain did a lot more than just the Hail Melon last year. He also ran up front at nearly every superspeedway event. Although he crashed out of both Daytona races relatively early, Chastain scored top-five finishes at both races at Atlanta and Talladega. He even won the spring Talladega race. Chastain led a total of 111 laps at superspeedway tracks last year.
Although Chastain’s aggressive driving style can get him into trouble, other drivers haven’t refused to work with him in the draft. He wouldn’t have been able to score such impressive results at superspeedways without finding help somewhere. Most books recognize this fact, as he owns odds of 16-1 at both DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook. But FanDuel Sportsbook has this line at just 22-1. Bettors should head there to capitalize on the off-market price
Best NASCAR Bet: Ross Chastain (+2200 for 0.1 Unit) at FanDuel
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