The NASCAR Cup Series will return to the Circuit of the Americas for the first road-course race of the year. Unlike stereotypical NASCAR events, the Cup Series will make both left and right turns this weekend. Motorsports legends like Kimi Raikkonen, Jimmie Johnson and Jenson Button are all in the field. Action in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix will get underway on Sunday, March 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. A.J. Allmendinger’s outright odds make him stand out as an interesting play early this week.
Now that the regular season is in full swing, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction Echopark Texas Grand Prix | COTA
Which Drivers Should We Avoid?
Circuit of the Americas is one of the six events on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule at which drivers make both right and left turns known as road courses. Seven drivers have won the 15 road course races held since the start of the 2020 NASCAR season. Of those seven, five have done so in the NextGen car. Notably, Chase Elliott, who owns four of those road-course wins and is the winningest active road-course driver, is out of Sunday’s race due to an injury. Tyler Reddick, who accounts for two of those wins, left the team he won those races with in the offseason.
The books have stacked the odds on a limited set of drivers, but that’s not unfair — a longshot is unlikely to win Sunday’s event. NASCAR’s decision to remove automatic cautions from stage breaks will make artificial strategy calls less more important, making it even more difficult for an underdog to win. To handicap the Echopark Texas Grand Prix, let’s identify the drivers we can remove from the set in hopes of finding some value on the remaining options.
First, let’s filter out all Toyota drivers. The manufacturer struggled on road courses last year and led only 23 of 529 total laps (4.3%). That included the final lap at the Charlotte Roval, but another miraculous last-second victory is much less likely this year, especially since we’re not yet in the do-or-die NASCAR playoffs. That means Tyler Reddick (9-1) and Christopher Bell (15-1) are drivers to avoid at their current price.
Next, we can filter out all drivers who failed to lead a lap on a road course last year. Aside from Ross Chastain, who won the first NextGen race on a road course, every road-course winner last season had led on a similar track at some point earlier that year. Surprisingly, this filter eliminates two of the favorites: Kyle Busch (8-1) and William Byron (12-1), as both failed to lead a road-course lap last season. While Busch should benefit from leaving Toyota and is tied for the second-most Cup Series road course wins of all active drivers, he hasn’t won one of these races since 2015.
That leaves us with seven of the 11 drivers who own odds shorter than 20-1. Of those drivers, Austin Cindric (15-1) is yet to win a Cup Series race on a road course, which makes him feel underpriced. Ryan Blaney (18-1) owns a single road-course win, which he scored on the last lap at the Charlotte Roval after the two cars in front of him crashed out. Kyle Larson (15-2), who is tied with Busch for the second-most road course wins of active drivers, likely won’t have his crew chief again this week due to a penalty. Ross Chastain (8-1), last year’s COTA winner, went on to lead only three more laps at road courses all season and seemed to have lost his edge down the stretch.
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Trust A.J. Allmendinger & Daniel Suarez
After eliminating most of the favorites, two remaining options stand out: A.J. Allmendinger and Daniel Suarez. Allmendinger didn’t score a Cup Series win at a road course last year, but he came close — he scored a fourth-place finish at the Charlotte Roval after leading 24 laps and a runner-up at Watkins Glen. Although he struggled early in the year, his lack of consistent seat time in the NextGen car may explain that underperformance.
The track isn’t a problem for Allmendinger. The veteran driver cut his teeth in open-wheel racing on similar tracks and has dominated here in the Xfinity Series. Allmendinger made two Xfinity Series starts at the Circuit of the Americas. He led three laps before finishing second behind Kyle Busch but ahead of Kevin Harvick, Austin Cindric and Tyler Reddick in 2021. He then led 27 laps and won the 2022 race, beating out Cup Series regulars like Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace in the process.
Allmendinger has two Cup Series wins at road courses to his name and could easily secure a third, especially now that he’s running a full-time schedule for Kaulig Racing. Based on the data available, his odds should probably slot in slightly shorter than the 12-1 (7.7%) available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Perhaps that’s why BetMGM has already cut his price to 11-1.
Unlike his teammate, Daniel Suarez didn’t fade down the stretch on road courses. He won the second road-course race of the year at Sonoma after leading 47 of the 110 laps. He then went on to finish fifth at both Road America and Watkins Glen. He put together an impressive run at the Charlotte Roval before losing his power steering.
Suarez should benefit from a solid starting spot. He qualified second for last year’s race at the Circuit of the Americas and advanced to the second round of qualifying at all but two road course events. He missed the second-round cutoff at the Indy Road Course by a single position. With his teammate listed at 8-1 (11.1%), Suarez deserves a price less than double his in length, but we’re able to play the 16-1 (5.9%) at BetMGM.
Best NASCAR Bet: A.J. Allmendinger 12-1 for 0.25 Unit at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Daniel Suarez 16-1 for 0.2 Unit at BetMGM
A Front Row Racing Upset Isn’t Impossible
I’m mostly avoiding underdogs this week, but I do want some exposure to both of the Front Row Racing Fords. Michael McDowell (30-1) should be a popular underdog pick this week, but his teammate, Todd Gilliland (100-1) offers some value at that price point as well.
McDowell is one of the Cup Series’ most consistent road-course racers. He owns the fourth-most top-10 finishes at these tracks since 2020 with seven in 15 starts. That ties him with Christopher Bell, A.J. Allmendinger (11 starts), Kyle Larson (13 starts) and Chris Buescher. Although he hasn’t won on one of these tracks, he led 14 laps at Watkins Glen last year after starting third. He was also in the mix for the win at Sonoma with Suarez and Buescher but finished third after starting fourth. His solid performances in qualifying should give him a leg up with no more stage breaks.
Like his teammate, Todd Gilliland has shown plenty of talent on road-course tracks. He excelled in his lone Truck Series start at the Circuit of the Americas in 2021 by leading eight of the 41 laps and winning both the race and the first stage. Gilliland finished 16th in last year’s race at COTA but showed some improvement on road courses down the stretch. He led four laps at the Indy Road Course and finished fourth before leading five laps at Watkins Glen before a mechanical failure.
Best NASCAR Bet: Michael McDowell 30-1 for 0.1 Unit at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Todd Gilliland 100-1 for 0.05 Unit at DraftKings
