Finally! Ryan Blaney managed to end his season-plus-long winless streak at Charlotte Motor Speedway last weekend. Unfortunately, he finished directly ahead of two drivers on the betting card, William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. The NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Gateway Motorsports Park for this year’s Enjoy Illinois 300, on Sunday, June 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET. I’m here to break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action in Charlotte. Alex Bowman stands out as an interesting NASCAR bet early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
NASCAR Predictions for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway: Race Preview
There’s a Clear Dominant Team Headed to St. Louis
Gateway Motorsports Park, or World Wide Technology Raceway, is a 1.25-mile flat oval track. It has an oblong shape, meaning turns one and two are narrower than turns three and four; it resembles a smaller Darlington Raceway but features much less tire wear as the surface was recently repaved to accommodate IndyCar racing in 2017. These factors mean it compares most favorably to Richmond and Phoenix.
Last year, Ryan Blaney recorded the best driver rating at Phoenix and the second-best driver rating at Richmond for Team Penske. His teammate, Joey Logano, recorded the seventh-best driver rating at Phoenix and the 13th-best one at Richmond. Blaney was the only driver to record a rating of 110-plus in both events. Blaney then recorded the second-best driver rating at Gateway, one spot ahead of his teammate, Logano, who won the race.
A quick look at the results from Richmond and Phoenix makes it clear that one team has a pretty massive advantage this year. William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, won at Phoenix and recorded the second-best driver rating in both events. Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, won at Richmond and recorded the best driver rating in both events.
Hendrick Motorsports led a whopping 68.7% of the laps at both Richmond and Phoenix. Larson and Byron did most of the damage, but Alex Bowman and Josh Berry chipped in with some laps led on their own as well. Unsurprisingly, Hendrick Motorsports drivers will feature heavily in my NASCAR Cup Series predictions for Gateway.
NASCAR Predictions for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway: Best Bets
It Was Always Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson won 10 races in 2021. He then went cold in 2022 as Hendrick Motorsports struggled to adapt to the NextGen car. Whatever went wrong for the team last season is in the rear-view mirror, as Larson has already won two races and led 583 laps this year. To give you some perspective, he won only three times and led only 635 laps in 2022. Although his odds aren’t great, all the numbers suggest Larson is a safe bet to run well at Gateway.
Larson has just looked unstoppable at short, flat ovals. He should’ve won at Phoenix and made up for the loss by winning at Richmond and Martinsville. He even won the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro in dominant fashion despite falling to the back early. It’s genuinely unclear who can stop him at these tracks, and getting him at 5-1 via BetMGM is a steal relative to the 9-2 other books have available.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 5-1 at BetMGM
Did you know you can get your name on Zane Smith’s No. 38 Ford F-150 in the Craftsman Truck Series Race at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course — and $150 in bet credits? It’s not a controversial NASCAR prediction to say that Smith has a shot to win that race. Register for Tipico Sportsbook as soon as possible! More details and disclaimers for this exciting promotion can be found here.
Value on the Rest of the Hendrick Motorsports Camp
Larson is just one of the four-car Hendrick Motorsports stable. Byron stands out as another strong play, but what about the team’s other two drivers? Chase Elliott has been suspended for one week, and Corey LaJoie will pilot the No. 9 Chevrolet. Hendrick’s usual alternate, Josh Berry, is in Portland with the Xfinity Series and is working on a deal to join Stewart-Haas Racing next season.
LaJoie sits at 35-1 on DraftKings to win Sunday’s event. While he certainly won’t want to burn any bridges by driving too aggressively on Sunday, this is also probably his best shot at scoring a win, and I don’t expect him to hold back if he has a real shot. LaJoie’s numbers this season aren’t all that impressive, but he drivers an underfunded No. 7 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports, so that isn’t surprising.
But LaJoie isn’t close to the best value bet for Gateway in the Hendrick Motorsports stable. That honor belongs to Alex Bowman, who is still looking for his first win of the year. We can buy Bowman at 30-1 on DraftKings. Bowman scored the 11th-best driver rating at Phoenix and the fifth-best rating at Richmond. He also scored the eighth-best rating at Martinsville, a less comparable track, outperforming Byron and Berry.
Best NASCAR Bet: Alex Bowman 30-1 for 0.05 Units at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Corey LaJoie 35-1 for 0.04 Units at DraftKings
