We scored a nice 13-2 win on Kyle Larson in last week’s outright column, and we even got a +100 ticket for him to edge out Kevin Harvick on the prop markets. With Richmond in the rear-view mirror, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the only unpaved event on the schedule. This year’s Food City Dirt Race will get underway on Sunday, April 9 at 7 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Kyle Larson stands out as an interesting play early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction Food City Dirt Race
Which Dirt Track Star Should You Pick?
The books have correctly identified the four favorites for Sunday’s event. At DraftKings Sportsbook, these are Kyle Larson (11-2), Tyler Reddick (6-1), Christopher Bell (13-2) and Chase Briscoe (10-1). Although a driver with a dirt background is yet to win a Bristol Dirt Race, either Reddick or Briscoe would have won last year but for a last-corner crash.
Larson, Reddick, Bell and Briscoe all grew up racing on dirt tracks. Larson and Bell have continued to race on dirt often during their NASCAR careers. Both have some serious cachet in the dirt world — Larson won the 2021 Knoxville Nationals and is a two-time Chili Bowl Nationals winner. He is also the 22nd-winningest all-time driver in the World of Outlaws. Bell is a three-time Chili Bowl Nationals winner, and, despite his younger age, all three of his wins came before Larson’s.
That isn’t to say that those four are the only NASCAR Cup Series drivers with backgrounds in dirt racing. Ryan Blaney spent plenty of time on dirt while racing for his dad, World of Outlaws legend Dave Blaney. Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. both have dirt backgrounds, albeit briefer and less dominant ones than the others.
While driving the NASCAR Gen. 7 car on dirt isn’t quite like driving a lightweight late model, sprint car or quarter-midget, last year’s event showed that dirt-track racers still had an advantage — and a much bigger one than they did in the Gen. 6 car. Reddick, Briscoe and Larson combined to lead 185 of the 250 laps. Larson, Reddick and Bell finished with top-four driver ratings as well.
I’m limiting my exposure to this event because the books have read the tea leaves correctly. It’s past time for a dirt-track star to win the Cup Series’ lone dirt-track event — the question is just which one. To answer that question, let’s turn to the Richmond and Phoenix results
Although neither Richmond nor Phoenix are dirt tracks, they are the shortest tracks the Cup Series has visited this far. Last year, the four best performers by driver rating in the Bristol Dirt Race had all recorded top-12 average driver ratings across Phoenix and Richmond. Although all four of our featured dirt-track stars successfully earned top-12 average driver ratings across those events this year, Larson’s average (139) stands far above Bell’s (111.8), Reddick’s (105.3) and Briscoe’s (87.1).
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 11-2 for 0.33 Unit DraftKings
Are There Any Longshots Worth Targeting?
Not really, no. But if you’re hankering to add a longshot to your betting card, the sportsbooks have left Todd Gilliland with far too long of a price. We can find him at 200-1 on DraftKings, which is a massive step up from the 100-1 at BetMGM and the 75-1 at Caesars.
Gilliland didn’t impress in his lone Cup Series start in the Bristol Dirt Race. He finished 17th and failed to lead a lap. However, Gilliland has put together plenty of strong runs on dirt tracks in the Craftsman Truck Series. In 2021, he finished a solid fourth in the Truck Series’ Bristol Dirt event. He then recorded another fourth-place finish — along with the most laps led and the best driver rating — at Knoxville. In 2022, Gilliland won at Knoxville after leading the second-most laps. He again recorded the best driver rating.
Further, the Front Row Racing Fords have looked fast at Bristol Dirt before, and they’ve looked strong this year as well. Michael McDowell piloted the No. 34 Ford to a 12th-place finish in the Bristol Dirt Race in 2021 and a ninth-place finish in 2022. McDowell and Gilliland have combined for two top-10s and six top-15s this year. It’ll take some luck for Gilliland to cross the line in first, but he has a better shot than DraftKings would have you believe. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best NASCAR Bet: Todd Gilliland 200-1 for 0.03 Unit at DraftKings
