We’re now at three NASCAR Cup Series outright hits in a row! We hit on Kyle Larson at 13-2 last week at Martinsville, following our hits on Christopher Bell at 7-1 in the Bristol Dirt YouTube Video and Kyle Larson at 13-2 in the Richmond outrights column. The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Alabama’s legendary Talladega Speedway next, and the GEICO 500 will get underway on Sunday, April 23 at 3 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Chris Buescher stands out as an interesting play early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction GEICO 500 | Talladega
Does Anyone Have a Leg Up on Superspeedways?
Before we answer this question, let’s quickly define the term “superspeedway.” As discussed in my NASCAR betting guide, a superspeedway is a track so fast that it requires a different package to prevent cars from reaching unsafe speeds. Those artificial limitations make drafting the only way to win. Talladega and Daytona used to be the only tracks where this was true, but since the repave at Atlanta, the sport has also used a superspeedway package there.
After two superspeedway races in 2023, it’s clear that Ford drivers have an edge. In this year’s Daytona 500, Ford drivers led 57.5% of the laps and accounted for each of the top-5 driver ratings. In the spring Atlanta race, Ford drivers led 85% of the laps and accounted for three of the top-5 driver ratings. The manufacturer may have won only one of the two events, but Ford drivers are likelier than the rest of the field to come across the finish line in front.
Still, NASCAR bettors should note that Talladega rarely rewards a traditional betting process. Correctly predicting the driver who would go on to record the best driver rating or lead the most laps wouldn’t have helped you identify the winning driver in either Talladega race last year. Doing so would’ve helped at Atlanta twice and Daytona once. In contrast, two of our last three outright winners also recorded the best overall driver rating. The lone miss, Kyle Larson at Martinsville, still recorded the third-best rating.
Step 1. Pick the Right Longshots
So if a traditional process doesn’t work well at superspeedways, what does? Approach the race with one goal: have fun. Talladega can massively boost your bankroll, but it’s more than likely going to cut into it. Ross Chastain won as a mid-pack option in last season’s spring race at 25-1. He led a single lap, the last one, in the process. Chase Elliott won as a co-favorite at 12-1 in last season’s fall race after leading only 10 laps.
Let’s list some recent superspeedway winners with relatively long odds. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won this year’s Daytona 500 at 33-1. Last year, Austin Dillon won the summer Daytona race at 30-1. Austin Cindric won that year’s Daytona 500 at 25-1. Michael McDowell hit at Daytona at 66-1 the year before. Bubba Wallace hit at Talladega at 25-1 in 2021 as well. Of the last nine races at Daytona and Talladega, six were won by drivers with odds of 25-1 or longer.
Daytona and Atlanta races offer some insight into how a year’s Talladega race will play out. Of the three drivers to score a top-3 in last year’s Talladega race, all had led at least one lap at Daytona or Talladega earlier in the season. The top-3 drivers in driver rating had also done so. Two of them, Kyle Larson and William Byron, had even led at least one lap in both events.
This year, 23 drivers led laps at either Daytona or Talladega. Only 11 of them did so on both tracks. Two of them are Ford drivers with odds set to 25-1 or longer. First, Chris Buescher, who slots in at 28-1 on Caesars. Buescher led the second-most laps in this year’s Daytona 500 before finishing fourth. He was also running up front at Atlanta before Kevin Harvick spun in front of him, ending both of their days. Aric Almirola, who slots in at 30-1 on Caesars, also managed to lead at both Daytona and Talladega. Almirola won here in the fall of 2018 as well.
Two other Ford drivers stand out as high-value longshots. Both Ryan Preece and Harrison Burton led laps in this year’s Daytona 500 before running into trouble. Both have also put together solid performances at superspeedways before, with Preece scoring a third-place finish here in 2019 and Burton nearly winning multiple Xfinity Series events at Daytona. Both drivers have value at their odds of 60-1 and 100-1 at FanDuel, respectively.
Here are two of the longshot bets I’m making for Talladega with the appropriate unit structure. I intend to get action on a couple of others, and you can access the full card via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Best NASCAR Bet: Chris Buescher 28-1 for 0.1 Unit at Caesars
Best NASCAR Bet: Ryan Preece 60-1 for 0.05 Unit at FanDuel
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Step 2. Mix in a Favorite — If the Odds Don’t Stink
The favorites all own odds of 11-1 (8.3%) across the market. While that may seem like a decent value play for other tracks, let’s do some quick math to test that hypothesis. There are 38 cars entered for Sunday’s race, and if each driver had an equal chance of winning, everyone would have a 2.6% chance to cross the stripe in first. For all drivers to have an 8.3% chance of winning, NASCAR would have to use a 12-car field.
Still, some favorites appear underpriced relative to others. Brad Keselowski, who led the most laps in this year’s Daytona 500 (and in 2022’s), stands out at 15-1 (6.3%). He followed up his strong performance at Daytona by leading 47 laps at Atlanta before finishing runner-up to Joey Logano. While Keselowski’s aggressive driving style can get him in trouble, it’s also necessary to win at tracks like Talladega.
Keselowski has made 28 Cup Series starts at Talladega. He has won six times, the most of all active full-time drivers, while leading the third-most laps (313). Keselowski famously won in his first Cup Series start here in 2009, and his other victories came in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2021. He also owns the best average finish of all active drivers with at least 20 starts at 15.7. Only three drivers with at least 10 starts, Chase Elliott, Ty Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., have a higher average finish.
Although the driver-owner is yet to take his No. 6 Ford for RFK Racing to victory lane, bettors shouldn’t be surprised if he dominates Sunday’s GEICO 500 and wins. Keselowski is one of the sport’s premier superspeedway drivers, and since he has come up short twice at these tracks already this season, I expect him to step up the aggression — in a good way — this weekend.
Best NASCAR Bet: Brad Keselowski 15-1 for 0.16 Unit at FanDuel
