The NASCAR Cup Series rolls on with another road course race. We’ve got just two races to go before the playoffs get underway, which means it’s time for guys to either win or accept that they won’t be contending for a title this year. We’ve got the 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen on Sunday, August 20 at 3 p.m. ET from Watkins Glen International. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Watkins Glen — we’re trusting the Chevrolet camp and are individually targeting one of their drivers.
NASCAR is one of the greatest sports to bet on! This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager! You can also check out my guide to successful NASCAR betting.
NASCAR Predictions for the Go Bowling at the Glen: Race Preview
How Should We Handicap Watkins Glen?
Road courses have produced some interesting results this season. With no more stage break cautions, we just saw the longest green-flag run in recent memory at the Indy Road Course last week, and it was what allowed Michael McDowell to win in dominant fashion. McDowell started up front, stayed out of trouble, and locked in his spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
McDowell’s win puts a handful of drivers even further from the playoff cut line. Now, Bubba Wallace is the last driver in with 560 points, 28 ahead of Daniel Suarez. Ty Gibbs is 49 points behind Wallace. Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are both 80 points out as well. With just two races left before the playoffs, it’s pretty much win-or-go-home for most of these drivers. That should underpin our assessment of this event.
However, it isn’t sharp to blindly back every driver who needs to win. Some of them, like Chase Elliott, own short odds — he slots in at only +350 (22.2%) to win this race. Others, like Bubba Wallace, aren’t good at road courses. Instead, it’s sharpest to target drivers in a must-win position who have won — or nearly won — at road courses in the past.
NASCAR Predictions for the Go Bowling at the Glen: Best Bets
Take the Best Number for Chevrolet You Can Find
We swung and missed on another manufacturer bet last weekend, but I’m confident about targeting the entire Chevrolet camp this weekend. They make up a majority of the field — and a majority of the drivers in must-win spots — and fared pretty well last weekend. Although Michael McDowell found ways to get the jump on Daniel Suarez and Chase Elliott, that doesn’t change the fact that they both recorded faster green-flag speeds.
Chevrolets, specifically those engineered by Hendrick Motorsports, have won the last four events at Watkins Glen. Chase Elliott was responsible for two of those victories, while Kyle Larson scored the other two. Unsurprisingly, Larson and Elliott are the favorites for this weekend’s event. The only other driver with multiple wins at the Glen, Kyle Busch, also drives a Chevrolet. Active drivers have accounted for 11 wins at this track, and eight of those victories were earned by someone who now drives a bowtie.
Of course, you won’t find the Chevrolets priced down or anything. The manufacturer owns odds of -115 (54.5%) via Caesars Sportsbook. However, that market features far less hold than the standard outright market, and, using their odds, we’re getting exposure to Elliott (23.5%), Larson (16.7%), Daniel Suarez (9.1%), A.J. Allmendinger (7.7%) — who own implied odds of 57% by themselves — along with several other possible contenders including William Byron (5.3%), Alex Bowman (3.2%) and Ross Chastain (1.6%).
Best NASCAR Bet: Chevrolet -115 for 0.5 Units at Caesars
Where is the Respect for Daniel Suarez?
I don’t get why Daniel Suarez isn’t getting an Elliott-like odds shift for this weekend’s event at the Glen. Sure, he hasn’t actually won here in the Cup Series before. He still has three top-5 finishes here in five starts and nearly won at the Indy Road Course last week. It was Suarez, not Elliott, who led the field in green flag speed, and it was Suarez, not Elliott, who led the second-most laps of cars on the standard pit strategy.
Suarez hasn’t had the best luck at road courses this year, but that’s not for a lack of speed or talent. His Trackhouse Racing teammate, Shane van Gisbergen, won at the Chicago Street Course a few weeks back, and Suarez nearly won at Indy, so we know the equipment is good. Further, Suarez won at Sonoma last season after contending for the win at the Circuit of the Americas, leading 34.6% of the laps at those two tracks in the process.
But even though both Elliott and Suarez are in desperate need of a win, it’s Elliott who slots in at only +350 (22.2%) or shorter to win this event. You’ll find Suarez priced as long as +1100 (8.3%) via DraftKings. Of all Chevrolet drivers in must-win situations, Suarez is the most appealing to me at his current price due to his own talent and the speed we’ve already seen out of Trackhouse Racing on road courses this season.
Best NASCAR Bet: Daniel Suarez +1100 for 0.09 Units at DraftKings
