That’s two in a row for NASCAR Cup Series outrights! We hit on Martin Truex Jr. at 31-1 for Sonoma and Ross Chastain at 11-1 at Nashville. I’m going for three in a row as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Chicago Street Course for the inaugural Grant Park 220 on Sunday, July 2 at 5:30 p.m. ET. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action in Chicago — we’re riding with two undervalued but highly skilled drivers, including Joey Logano.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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NASCAR Predictions for the Grant Park 220 at the Chicago Street Course: Race Preview
How do We Handicap This Track?
We’re all flying blind for this one. No one will have ever laid a lap in a real NASCAR-sanctioned vehicle at the Chicago Street Course until this weekend, including the drivers themselves. The event will be the first-ever Cup Series race held on a street course, or a race track adapted from standard city streets.
While other road courses are a useful comparator, a few things make the layout of the Chicago Street Course truly unique. First, seven of the track’s 12 corners are at 90-degree angles, reminiscent of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Second, the track features two straightaways (three, if you don’t count turn three as a true corner) that measure 0.35 miles or longer.
Those long straightaways and hairpin corners will combine to put a ton of pressure on drivers’ brake systems. Brake failure is almost a certainty in the 100-lap, 220-mile event. Gateway, which features similarly long straightaways and tight corners, saw Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar and Noah Gragson all suffer brake failures.
The narrow Chicago streets could make passing difficult, and the lack of stage breaks means starting track position will come at a premium. Qualifying could get rained out. As such, I’m weighing both performance at last weekend’s race (for the qualifying algorithm) and recent road course qualifying performance heavily.
NASCAR Predictions for the Grant Park 220 at the Chicago Street Course: Best Bets
Where is the Respect for William Byron?
I don’t get it. William Byron has put together one of the best seasons of any Cup Series driver this year. He is tied with Kyle Busch with three wins. He finished fifth at the Circuit of the Americas after starting first and leading 28 laps. He struggled at Sonoma and finished 14th after failing to lead a lap, but he finished eighth at Gateway, our brake-heavy comparator, after starting seventh and leading 30 laps. Byron had a top-four driver rating in two of the three comparator events.
Byron is also one of the Cup Series’ best simulator drivers. He almost immediately crashed out from the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series event here in 2021, but he stuck around to run the laps anyway. Although every driver spends time in the simulator now, Byron grew up racing virtually, and that experience may give him an edge at a track anyone is yet to run laps at in person.
Two of Byron’s teammates, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, are trading at odds between 13-2 (13.3%) and 7-1 (12.5%) on DraftKings Sportsbook. Those numbers are fair, especially given how strong Hendrick Motorsports has looked this year. However, that immediately raises the question of why Byron doesn’t deserve the same respect — we can still buy him at odds of 16-1 (5.9%) at DraftKings.
Best NASCAR Bet: William Byron 16-1 at DraftKings
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Can Joey Logano Keep Winning at New Venues?
Joey Logano has won the inaugural events at the last two unique venues introduced to the NASCAR Cup Series. He took the checkered flag at first the Bristol Dirt Race in 2021, the Cup Series’ first dirt race since 1970, then won the Busch Light Clash at the L.A. Coliseum in 2022, the Cup Series’ first race on a track shorter than a half-mile since that same era.
Logano’s knack for performing well on unconventional tracks speaks to his talent and ability to outperform his equipment. It also speaks to his aggressive driving style. The Coliseum is an infamously difficult track for passing, yet Logano managed to take the lead there anyway. With track position to come at a premium in Chicago, Logano is among the few drivers likely to make up ground on the track itself.
We’ve also seen solid runs out of Logano at the comparator tracks this year. After a 28th-place result at the Circuit of the Americas in which he led one lap, Logano finished third at both Gateway and Sonoma. He led no laps in either event but took care of his No. 22 Ford and kept his car close to the front all day. Getting him at odds of 28-1 (3.5%) on DraftKings feels like stealing.
Best NASCAR Bet: Joey Logano 28-1 at DraftKings
