After a rain-delayed Monday race at New Hampshire, we’re off to Pocono, where Mother Nature may finally agree to let a NASCAR Cup Series race take place as scheduled. We’ve got the HighPoint.com 400 on Sunday, July 23 at 2:30 p.m. ET from Pocono Raceway. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Pocono — we’re primarily riding with the Toyota camp, but Ryan Blaney has value, too.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
NASCAR Predictions for the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway: Race Preview
How Should We Handicap the Tricky Triangle?
Pocono Raceway is a unique venue on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The 2.5-mile triangle features relatively little banking, except in Turn 1, which features 14-degree banking, and is, well, a right triangle. All three corners are different: Turn 1 is the tightest but features the most banking, Turn 2, or the “Tunnel Turn,” is a 90-degree corner with 8-degree banking, reminiscent of Indianapolis Motor Speedway — although the tunnel underneath the corner adds some extra bumps — and Turn 3 comes at an acute angle and features just 6-degree banking.
Remember, this is a 2.5-mile track. NASCAR Cup Series drivers reached speeds just under 170 miles per hour in qualifying on this course last year, meaning we’ll need to identify drivers with both top-end speed and the talent necessary to handle the track’s tricky corners. Although the driver who set that time, Denny Hamlin, was found to have had an illegal modification to his car, leading to his disqualification, similar speeds are likely this year now that the Cup Series teams have visited the venue once before with the NextGen car.
Ultimately, I think the best way to handicap Pocono is to lean on four comparator tracks run in May or later: Charlotte, Gateway, Nashville and New Hampshire. Charlotte and Nashville for top-end speed, Nashville and New Hampshire for tire wear, and, finally, Gateway and New Hampshire for tight, mostly unbanked corners after long straightaways. Last season, only six drivers recorded an average driver rating of 100 or more across the five tracks. Four of the six, which included the original race winner, Hamlin, along with original runner-up Kyle Busch and winner Chase Elliott, recorded a driver rating of 100-plus at Pocono. None of the six drivers recorded a rating below 89 at Pocono.
Using the same process outlined above for this year’s results reveals only four drivers with average driver ratings above 100: Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Denny Hamlin. Only two other drivers, Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson, recorded average ratings of 90-plus. Notably, Truex also recorded the best average driver rating across the four tracks last season before finishing seventh with a driver rating of 89.1 at Pocono. Although our shortlist includes most of the favorites, it doesn’t include Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain or Chase Elliott, all of whom own odds of 12-1 (7.7%) or shorter.
NASCAR Predictions for the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway: Best Bets
Ryan Blaney is Inefficiently Priced
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. couldn’t buy a trip to victory lane last year. The duo have combined to win four races this season and rank seventh and first in the points standings, respectively. Blaney won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte this year, leading a dominant 163 laps in the process. He also led 83 laps at Gateway before finishing sixth. Blaney crashed out at Nashville and struggled at New Hampshire, but his success at two of the comparator tracks is enough to give him the second-best average driver rating across the four venues.
Although much has been made of the Ford camp’s lack of speed, that didn’t stop Blaney from running away with the win at Charlotte late. Blue Ovals have won just twice this year, but their performance at tracks with tight, narrow corners like Martinsville, Gateway and New Hampshire is encouraging — the manufacturer led 41.8% of the laps across the three venues and controlled seven of the 15 possible top-5 spots by driver rating. Perhaps lacking some raw speed can help make managing tight corners a bit easier.
Blaney is no stranger to victory lane at Pocono, either. He won his first Cup Series race here with Wood Brothers Racing in 2017, holding off Kevin Harvick for a fuel mileage win. He also won his first-ever Truck Series start here with Brad Keselowski Racing in 2013, beating out then-teammate Ross Chastain. Although Blaney has never dominated an event at Pocono in any series, he deserves betting odds shorter than the 11-1 (8.3%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is my favorite outright bet for the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.
Best NASCAR Bet: Ryan Blaney +1100 for Units at DraftKings
Can the Toyota Camp Stay Hot?
The recent dominance shown by Martin Truex Jr. has led the books to stack the odds in favor of Truex and his Toyota teammates. Truex slots in at odds 11-2 (15.4%) at DraftKings, with teammate Denny Hamlin earning the same price. Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick both clock in at 14-1 (6.7%), while Bubba Wallace sits at 28-1 (3.5%) and Ty Gibbs at 35-1 (2.7%). Their total implied odds add up to 50.5%. However, we can get action on all six via the winning manufacturer market, where Toyota comes in at only +140 (41.7%) at DraftKings, making them an especially sharp NASCAR bet for the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.
Why am I so excited about this relatively short number? Half of our four-driver shortlist are Toyota drivers. Similarly, half of our six-driver expanded shortlist are Toyota drivers. Four of the top 10 drivers by average driver rating across the aforementioned comparator tracks are Toyota drivers as well, with Wallace just missing the cut in 12th. Most books are treating Chevrolet as the favorite based on the sheer volume of entries they have in the field, but only one bowtie, William Byron, made our four-driver shortlist. Chevrolet also controls only three of the top 10 drivers by average driver rating across the comparator tracks.
Best NASCAR Bet: Toyota +140 for Units at DraftKings
