The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are underway. Kyle Larson secured a bid to the Round of 12 with a win last week, but plenty remains to be decided this weekend. We’ve got the 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday, September 10 at 3 p.m. ET from Kansas. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Kansas — we’re siding with the Toyotas and rookie Ty Gibbs.
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NASCAR Predictions for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas: Race Preview
Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Race Preview for the Hollywood Casino 400
The Toyotas have owned Kansas Speedway in the NextGen era. Last year, Kurt Busch won the spring race here in the No. 45 Toyota, and his teammate, Bubba Wallace, piloted the same No. 45 Toyota to victory lane in the summer. This year's spring race saw Denny Hamlin win in the No. 11 Toyota. Everything suggests we should see more of the same come Sunday afternoon.
The only team that has done anything to contend with the Toyotas is Hendrick Motorsports, and, more specifically, Kyle Larson. Larson led the most laps here in the spring, albeit by a narrow margin. He finished runner-up in both that event and in last year's spring race. His Hendrick teammate, Alex Bowman, led the most laps in last year's summer event but finished fourth.
Will Hendrick -- or anyone else, really -- find a way to win at Kansas with the new car, or will Toyota's reign of dominance continue? Last year, the Southern 500 at Darlington was somewhat predictive of the speed drivers would show the next week at Kansas. Three of the top five drivers by driver rating at Darlington also posted top-five driver ratings the next week at Kansas. Five of the top eight drivers by green-flag speed were also top-eight drivers in the metric at Kansas.
Using last weekend's event in South Carolina as a reference point, Toyota may have lost some of its edge. Kyle Larson was the top driver by both driver rating and green-flag speed. Only two Toyota drivers, Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin, were top-five drivers by driver rating, and only three, those two and Bubba Wallace, were top-eight by green-flag speed.
NASCAR Predictions for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas: Best Bets
NASCAR Kansas Prediction No. 1: Toyota's Streak Stays Alive
When we visited Kansas Speedway in the spring, Toyota drivers dominated the event. Kyle Larson may have led the most laps with 85, but Martin Truex Jr. (79), Denny Hamlin (34), Tyler Reddick (23), Bubba Wallace (9) and Christopher Bell (3) all played a role, helping the manufacturer lead 148 of the 267 laps, or 55.4%. More importantly, six of the seven best drivers by green-flag speed came from the Toyota camp.
Although Toyota has been trending down speed-wise over the last few races -- or, at least, the over manufacturers have been catching up -- I'm willing to write off less-than-spectacular showings at Michigan and Darlington. Michigan is a smooth two-mile track, a bit bigger than Kansas, and Darlington is a rough 1.3-mile track with far more tire wear. Last year, the spring Kansas race was the most predictive data point for the fall event, so we'll lean on that event again this year.
You'll find Toyota priced at -105 (51.2%) on FanDuel and +105 (48.8%) at Caesars but we can find a slightly more profitable +110 (47.6%) at Bet365. If you don't have access to Bet365, head to Caesars for the next-best price. Those odds aren't great, but Toyota has won every race here in the NextGen era and six of the last eight events here. Kyle Larson is the biggest threat to the Toyota camp, especially after his solid showing at Darlington, but let's not forget that Toyotas still led 307 of the 367 laps in the event, good for 83.6%.
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NASCAR Kansas Bet: Toyota +110 for 0.7 Units at Bet365
NASCAR Kansas Prediction No. 2: Ty Gibbs Gets His First Win
I'll get bold with this one. If we're putting the bulk of our action on Toyota to win the race, why not sprinkle a little bit on a longshot driver? Gibbs pilots the No. 54 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, his grandfather's team, and has now run the last two Cup Series events here. He finished 10th last fall but crashed out early here in the spring, bringing his No. 54 home in 34th after starting seventh. Gibbs still scored the ninth-best driver rating despite the accident and even finished the first stage in third.
Gibbs showed impressive green-flag speed here in the spring, and his Xfinity Series resume is solid. He recorded the fourth-best green-flag speed rating of all drivers, trailing only two of his JGR teammates and Larson. The performance shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone, as Gibbs ran well in both events here he entered in the Xfinity Series. He won after recording the second-best driver rating and leading 14 laps in 2021. He then finished third after leading the most laps and recording the best rating in 2022.
We're also able to buy an off-market number on DraftKings at the moment, which helps to justify making this longshot pick. Gibbs clocks in at around +3500 (2.8%) across the market, which isn't a bad price, but we're able to get him all the way up at +4500 (2.2%) via DraftKings. I don't expect that number to stick around after qualifying, so make sure to buy it early before it disappears.
NASCAR Kansas Bet: Ty Gibbs +4500 for 0.05 Units at DraftKings
