Now that’s what I call momentum. We hit on Christopher Bell at 7-1 in last week’s YouTube Video right after hitting on Kyle Larson at 13-2 in the Richmond outrights column. We even hit Todd Gilliland to get a top-10 at 10-1 in Saturday’s prop column! The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway next, and the NOCO 400 will get underway on Sunday, April 16 at 3 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Kyle Larson again stands out as an interesting play early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction NOCO 400 | Martinsville
How Will the Weather Play Out on Sunday?
The NASCAR Cup Series may debut the short-track wet package this weekend. On Sunday, the National Weather Service reports a 60% chance of rain. The Weather Channel pegs that number to between 52% and 44%, with a decreasing chance as the day progresses. The wet-weather package includes rain tires, windshield wipers, flaps behind tires and even rain lighting.
No driver in the field has run a wet Cup Series race on an oval. Last year’s race at Watkins Glen, a road course, saw drivers switch between rain tires and slicks. Kyle Larson wound up in victory lane that day. The inaugural event at the Circuit of the Americas got wet and stayed wet, and Chase Elliott won a not-super-competitive event. Larson finished runner-up.
The books have opened the betting as if it were a traditional race at Martinsville Speedway. While there is still a chance it could be one, it’s very possible that teams will at least have to spend at least part of the race on rain tires. That should give a meaningful advantage to drivers who are used to wet conditions, like former sports car racers A.J. Allmendinger and Michael McDowell.
Still, bettors can’t handicap this race like rain is a sure thing, especially not this early in the week. A 60% chance of rain, at least as the National Weather Service uses the phrase, is still only slightly more favorable than a coin flip. That means we’re not putting the farm on Allmendinger or McDowell at their current odds of 200-1 or longer, but it does make them much more interesting.
Which Favorites Would the Rain Affect the Least?
The driver I feel the most confident about regardless of the weather is the same driver we’ve been targeting over the last two weeks: Kyle Larson. Larson has run reasonably well in the rain before. He finished second at the Circuit of the Americas in 2021 after recording the best driver rating. He also won last year’s soggy event at Watkins Glen. More importantly, he tested the wet-weather tire at Martinsville back in 2021.
Five drivers participated in the wet-weather tests: Larson and Chris Buescher tried it out at Martinsville, and the trio of Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Joey Logano tested the tire and tire flaps at Richmond. Because of Elliott’s injury, only four of those drivers are in the field this weekend, and only one of them will pilot a Chevrolet. Because of how dominant Chevrolets, especially those run by Hendrick Motorsports, have looked at short, flat ovals this year, it’s hard to pass up Larson at his current price.
EDITOR’S NOTE (4/12/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET): Chase Elliott announced his return to the No. 9 Chevrolet after the original publication of this article.
The Cup Series has run two races at short, flat ovals this year. Kyle Larson led the most laps before finishing fifth in Phoenix, and he led the most laps on his way to victory lane in Richmond. Last year, the driver who led the most laps at Phoenix also went on to do the same at Richmond. But it was the driver who led the second-most laps at Richmond — albeit by only a two-lap margin — who went on to win the spring Martinsville race in dominant fashion.
The two drivers who dominated last year’s spring Martinsville event, Chase Elliott and William Byron, recorded a top-5 driver rating at either Phoenix or Richmond. The only other driver to lead multiple laps at Martinsville in the spring, Ryan Blaney, scored one in both events. This year, Larson scored the best driver rating at both tracks. William Byron and Christopher Bell also scored top-5 driver ratings in both events.
The sportsbooks have Byron as the favorite at 6-1 with Bell and Larson sitting right behind him at 13-2. Only one major domestic book, Caesars Sportsbook, had Byron even with the others as of Tuesday afternoon. If the forecast gets gloomier, expect sharp action to come in on the four entered drivers who tested this tire and wet-weather package back in 2021. Still, I’m limiting my exposure to the early outright markets for this race because of the uncertain forecast.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 13-2 for 0.25 Unit at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Christopher Bell 13-2 for 0.25 Unit at DraftKings
Do Any Longshots Have Value?
Yes. Last week I said they didn’t, but if I had to pick one, Todd Gilliland stood out at 200-1. He proceeded to run up front all day before nearly bringing his No. 38 Ford home in the top-5. With the possibility of rain in the forecast, a plethora of longshots stand out. I’ve already alluded to a few above, but I want to focus on my favorite: A.J. Allmendinger.
Allmendinger hasn’t run well at Martinsville lately. Since he joined Kaulig Racing in 2020, Allmendinger has made seven starts at Martinsville in either the Xfinity or Cup Series. He has zero wins, one top-5 and two top-10s in his five Xfinity starts. He also failed to score a top-20 here in Cup last year. His 20th-place finish at Phoenix and his 27th-place finish at Richmond suggest the team’s struggles at short, flat ovals not change this year.
However, Martinsville races more like a road course, the tracks that Allmendinger has fared the best on, than any other oval. Allmendinger even used to run well here in the past. He has scored two top-5s, both runner-up finishes, seven top-10s and 14 top-15s across 23 Cup Series starts here. He has never dominated a Martinsville event, but if the rain pours down on Sunday, he certainly will have a shot to win.
The books are making a major mistake by pricing Allmendinger all the way up at 200-1. Although Kaulig Racing hasn’t looked great on short, flat ovals in the NextGen Era, Allmendinger may get the help he needs in the form of rain on Sunday. Readers can lock this play in at DraftKings Sportsbook. Those yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best NASCAR Bet: A.J. Allmendinger 200-1 for 0.03 Unit at DraftKings
