The NASCAR Cup Series won’t return to the current Auto Club configuration ever again. No series will — after the 2023 Pala Casino 400, Auto Club intends to convert the facility into a half-mile short track by 2025. The final Cup Series race on Auto Club’s two-mile surface will get underway on Sunday, Feb. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Kyle Busch’s outright odds make him stand out as a value bet early this week.
Now that the regular season is in full swing, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction for the Pala Casino 400 | Feb. 26
Will Kyle Busch Win One for Pop Pop?
The No. 8 Chevrolet nearly won last year’s race at Auto Club, albeit with a different driver, Tyler Reddick, behind the wheel. Reddick led 90 of 200 laps and won both stages before a flat tire put him one lap down. Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon, piloted his No. 3 Chevrolet to a second-place finish without leading a lap.
Richard Childress Racing’s strong showing at Auto Club last year makes Kyle Busch a sharp bet for this weekend. Busch trails only Jimmie Johnson in all-time wins at this track with four, and three of those trips to victory lane have come in the last ten races here. Busch dominated the 2013 race, won a close one in 2014 and dominated again in 2019. He’ll now have a chance to win one for his new team owner, Richard Childress, or Pop Pop, who infamously put him in a headlock back in 2011.
"He got him in the headlock and just went to beatin' on his head." – @MartySmithESPN
For those who didn't get the "Hold my watch" reference between Richard Childress and Kyle Busch, here ya go.
Childress was fined $150,000 & placed on probation for the 2011 season. pic.twitter.com/7rZARMc7Aw
— Cory Smith (@RCorySmith) September 13, 2022
Busch’s lackluster 14th-place finish here last season wasn’t for a lack of talent. No Toyotas performed well in the event — none of their six entries led a lap, and only one finished inside the top 10. Although the manufacturer figured things out as the year progressed, the RCR Chevrolets should still have a leg up.
Auto Club’s rough surface causes plenty of tire wear, and Busch performed well at tracks that chew up tires last season. He led laps at both Darlington races before getting knocked out due to factors outside of his control. He also scored a top-10 finish at Homestead in October.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Busch 11-1 for 0.25 Unit at BetMGM
Can William Byron Finish the Job This Time?
Hendrick Motorsports scored the win at Auto Club last year. Kyle Larson piloted the No. 5 Chevrolet to victory lane after leading 28 laps. However, teammate William Byron was running well before getting knocked out by an accident. He had led 16 laps in his No. 24 Chevrolet.
Byron competed for the win at every comparator track last year. He followed his strong run at Auto Club up by leading 24 laps at Darlington in the spring before getting pushed out of the way by Joey Logano. He led 50 laps at the Southern 500, the fall Darlington race, after starting in third. He also led 32 laps at Homestead from the pole. His strong showings in qualifying could lead these odds to drop before the market closes.
Although Byron didn’t have the results to show for it last season, he was one of the best Cup Series drivers on tracks with high tire wear. His success at these tracks dates back to his time in the Xfinity Series. As a 19-year-old rookie, Byron scored top-five finishes at both Auto Club and Darlington. The only drivers to finish ahead of him in both events were full-time Cup Series competitors.
The market agrees on most drivers’ odds for this weekend, but DraftKings Sportsbook has an off-market number for Byron. Most books have the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet at 15-1, which is a better estimation of his talents. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best NASCAR Bet: William Byron 18-1 for 0.15 Unit at DraftKings
How Will Legacy Motor Club Perform?
Legacy Motor Club, known as Petty GMS Racing until Jimmie Johnson invested in the team this offseason, has beaten expectations at Auto Club. Erik Jones led 18 laps from the second-place starting position before finishing in third last year. His teammate, Ty Dillon, scored a 17th-place result, one of his best performances of the year.
Jones has an excellent resume at Auto Club and its comparators. He has one top-5 and three top-10s in five Cup Series starts here. More importantly, he won last year’s Southern 500 and was running toward the front in the spring Darlington race before getting caught up in an accident. Expect him to showcase his talents in Sunday’s Pala Casino 400.
But Jones’ teammate, rookie Noah Gragson, has similarly impressive stats. Although Gragson remains unproven in the Cup Series, he dominated at Auto Club and high-tire wear tracks in the Xfinity Series last year. Gragson scored two wins and two runner-up finishes in four starts between Auto Club, Darlington and Homestead. He owns three wins and 10 top-5s across 15 Xfinity Series starts at these tracks.
Best NASCAR Bet: Erik Jones 32-1 for 0.1 Unit at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Noah Gragson 80-1 for 0.05 at BetMGM
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