After going two in a row for NASCAR Cup Series outrights, our streak came to an end when Shane van Gisbergen won the Chicago Street Race. We’re still up considerably on the season, so let’s turn the page and get back in the winner’s column with these outrights for the Quaker State 400 on Sunday, July 9 at 7 p.m. ET. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action in Atlanta — we’re primarily riding with Chase Elliott and some Ford drivers.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
NASCAR Predictions for the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway: Race Preview
What Have We Learned About the New Atlanta?
After years as one of the toughest tracks for tire wear in the NASCAR Cup Series, those in charge of Atlanta Motor Speedway chose to repave and reconfigure the track after the 2021 season. They swapped a rough surface from the 1990s that had survived a tornado for a smooth layer of asphalt on top of high-banked corners such that Atlanta is now functionally a superspeedway like Daytona and Talladega — but only 1.5 miles long.
Last year’s races at Atlanta, although dotted with wrecks and some unusual suspects, ultimately proved quite predictable. Hendrick Motorsports drivers who led the most laps also took the checkered flag in both events. Of the six drivers with a driver rating above 100 in the first event, three recorded one above 100 in the second. They were also the only three drivers to record a driver rating above 100 in the July race.
However, there’s a big change coming for this year’s summer event: it will run under the lights, in no small part because expecting drivers and fans to sit through several hours in Georgia’s summer heat is unwise. While that means this year’s spring event should hold slightly less predictive value for the summer event, we’ll still lean heavily on those results — along with the results from other superspeedway races.
NASCAR Predictions for the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway: Best Bets
Chase Elliott is Mispriced at the Moment
NASCAR’s favored son, Chase Elliott, won last year’s summer event at Atlanta in dominant fashion. He won the pole and led 96 of the 260 laps while recording the best driver rating (134.5). He may have benefited from his teammate, William Byron, crashing out, as Byron won the spring event and led 41 laps early, but Elliott has an impressive superspeedway resume nonetheless. Along with the win at Atlanta, he has two Cup Series wins at Talladega to his name, one of which came in the NextGen car.
Although I said we’d need to lean heavily on the results from the spring Atlanta race, I’m ignoring that rule to justify getting some action on Elliott. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet missed that race with an injury, and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates didn’t do much. Only one of them, Kyle Larson, secured a top-10 starting spot, but both he and Byron crashed out early. Neither Josh Berry nor Alex Bowman led a lap as Ford drivers dominated the event.
Elliott’s need to win and solid resume at the Atlanta Motor Speedway make him a must-play at his current price. You’ll find him at 10-1 (9.1%) at Bet365, 11-1 (8.3%) at DraftKings but 13-1 (7.1%) at BetMGM. We saw the No. 9 team make an aggressive strategy call to put Elliott in a position to win at the Chicago Street Course last weekend, and they’ll likely approach this event in Atlanta similarly. Lock in this number before it disappears from the market.
Best NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott 13-1 for 0.19 Units at BetMGM
Don’t Forget About These Ford Drivers
I have a four-driver outright card for this weekend, so let’s talk about the two Ford drivers on it: Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric. Both drivers have won Cup Series events at superspeedways in the past, just not Atlanta. While the market expects great things out of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, the slightly longer numbers we can get on Keselowski and Cindric have far more value, especially since both drivers need to win.
Keselowski, who slots in at odds of only 15-1 (6.3%) at DraftKings, isn’t exactly a longshot. However, his superspeedway resume means that he shouldn’t be one — he finished runner-up to Logano here in the spring and led the most laps in this year’s Daytona 500 before crashing out. Keselowski also led the second-most laps (47) and recorded the second-best driver rating (114.6) in the spring Atlanta race, and with him still needing a win to lock up a playoff spot, expect some more aggression from him than we saw late in the spring race.
Next, we’ll also get some exposure to Cindric, who is much more of a longshot. While he is only 20-1 (4.8%) at DraftKings, we can buy him at 30-1 (3.2%) at BetMGM. That number is a mistake. Although Cindric finished only 11th here in the spring, he started second and led five laps. He also finished the first stage in second place before winning the second stage outright. Cindric recorded the sixth-best driver rating (93) as well. With him and the No. 2 Ford team currently 22nd in points, look for Cindric to do everything he can to get to victory lane and make the NASCAR playoffs.
Best NASCAR Bet: Brad Keselowski 15-1 for 0.16 Units at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Austin Cindric 30-1 for 0.09 Units at BetMGM
