Last weekend’s event at Gateway Motorsports Park dragged on forever, which made my overestimation of Hendrick Motorsports that much more painful. Oh well. The NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Sonoma Raceway for this year’s Toyota/SaveMart 350 on Sunday, June 11 at 3:30 p.m. ET. I’m here to break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Sonoma. Martin Truex Jr. stands out as an interesting NASCAR bet early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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NASCAR Predictions for the Toyota/SaveMart 350 at Sonoma: Race Preview
Who Has Been Fast on Road Courses Lately?
The NASCAR Cup Series makes its second stop at a road course this season. Tyler Reddick dominated at the Circuit of the Americas back in March, shaking off the “handcuffs” that Toyota drivers had complained about when racing on road courses last year.
Interestingly, Reddick was the only Toyota driver to score a top-5 finish. The next-best Toyota driver, Ty Gibbs, finished ninth; the next-best Toyota driver after Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, finished 16th.
Toyota failed to dominate any of last year’s road course events. They barely won one, with Christopher Bell stealing a win at the Charlotte Roval. However, it’s likely that at least some of the notes from Reddick’s winning effort have made their way to the rest of the manufacturer’s stable, so I’m not writing the manufacturer off completely as I did at these tracks last year, which is big, because the winningest active driver at Sonoma is Martin Truex Jr.
Last year, the best team at the Circuit of the Americas by individual driver rating, Trackhouse Racing, went on to win at Sonoma. Ross Chastain dominated at COTA with a driver rating of 141.7; Daniel Suarez followed that up by recording a driver rating of 137.5 at Sonoma.
This year saw a few teams stand above the rest at COTA. Reddick led 41 of the 75 laps for 23XI Racing and recorded a driver rating of 141.8. He also recorded the best green-flag speed rating. After Reddick, William Byron and Alex Bowman recorded the next-best driver ratings at 128.8 and 108.4, respectively, for Hendrick Motorsports.
NASCAR Predictions for the Toyota/SaveMart 350 at Sonoma: Best Bets
Don’t Overthink This One — Trust Chase Elliott
The winningest active road course driver, Chase Elliott, isn’t the favorite for this weekend’s festivities in Sonoma. That honor belongs to Tyler Reddick. Kyle Larson, Elliott’s teammate, also owns shorter outright odds. He isn’t exactly a longshot at +550, but the odds are friendly enough for me to pounce.
Elliott hasn’t won on a road course since his 2021 victory at Road America. However, he showed plenty of speed on them in 2022 — Elliott led 121 of the total 529 laps (22.8%). He also led 91 of the 331 laps run on traditional road courses (27.5%), which are distinct from the Charlotte Roval and Indy Road Course.
But unlike last year, Elliott can’t afford to be conservative and race for points. He has missed seven races this season, six due to an injury and one due to a suspension. He told reporters that he believes his team is in a must-win situation to qualify for the playoffs.
Elliott has both a need to win and the car to do it. As we saw at the Circuit of the Americans, Hendrick Motorsports has plenty of speed on road courses this year. Although his outright odds aren’t great, we can find an off-market 11-2 at BetMGM.
Best NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott 11-2 at BetMGM
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Which Toyota Drivers Have Value?
I said earlier that Reddick’s breakthrough win at the Circuit of the Americas suggested the Toyota drivers could actually compete this weekend. Fortunately for us, the books are low on the rest of the Toyota camp, which creates some value for us to exploit.
Two drivers stand out the most to me. First, Bubba Wallace. While he isn’t known for being an effective road course racer, he quietly secured a career-best road course finish of fifth at the Indy Road Course last season. He went on to finish seventh at the Charlotte Roval.
Wallace crashed out early at the Circuit of the Americas, but he recorded the fourth-best green flag speed rating, and, as we saw last year, teams that do well at COTA tend to do well at Sonoma. I’m not paying up to back Reddick, but Wallace is a steal at odds of 100-1 via DraftKings to win the Toyota/SaveMart 350.
Next, Martin Truex Jr. He finally got the monkey off his back with a win at Dover and has looked solid ever since. Despite finishing 17th, Truex recorded both the best green-flag speed rating and driver rating for Joe Gibbs Racing at COTA.
With three trips to victory lane to his name, Truex is also the winningest active driver at Sonoma. He trails only Elliott among active drivers in average driver rating. Truex won here as recently as 2019, but we can get him at 31-1 via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best NASCAR Bet: Bubba Wallace 100-1 for 0.02 Units at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Martin Truex Jr. 31-1 for 0.05 Units at FanDuel
