Well, our three-race streak of hitting outrights came to an end last weekend. You can’t win them all, but it hurt that two of the drivers on the official card provided to members of OddsShopper Insider Access were running first and second on the last lap — only for one to throw a bad block and get wrecked, allowing Kyle Busch to win. The NASCAR Cup Series next heads to Dover Motor Speedway, and the Wurth 400 is scheduled for Sunday, April 30 at 2 p.m. ET, but rainy weather will likely interfere. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Kyle Larson stands out as an interesting NASCAR bet early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction Wurth 400 | Dover
How on Earth Do You Handicap Dover?
We had the benefit of two superspeedway races before last weekend’s event in Talladega. We also had the benefit of two races on short, flat ovals before Martinsville two weekends ago. However, we’re flying somewhat blind with Dover Motor Speedway — the NASCAR Cup Series is yet to race on a short, banked oval. Bristol would usually work as a comparator, but that race was run on dirt. Dover doesn’t really compare favorably to the other short tracks we’ve seen so far because of its banked, concrete surface.
We’ll have to get creative here. Last year, six of the top eight drivers by driver rating at Dover had also recorded a top-eight finish in the metric at either Bristol Dirt or Las Vegas. Four of those drives, including race winner Chase Elliott, did so at both venues. While neither track compares perfectly to Dover, this is probably the best in-season comparator we’ll be able to dig up. Let’s dig into the drivers who met this standard.
This year, a whopping 14 drivers recorded a top-eight driver rating at either Bristol Dirt or Las Vegas. That necessarily means only two drivers did so at both tracks, and they were, unsurprisingly, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson. Bell led 100 laps at Bristol Dirt on the way to the best driver rating after failing to lead but still earning a top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Larson had been looking strong at Bristol Dirt before getting wrecked out by Ryan Preece after leading the second-most laps at Las Vegas and finishing second.
Now, there is one obvious flaw to this handicapping process. Chase Elliott, the defending race winner and one of the favorites for this weekend’s event, raced at neither Bristol Dirt nor Las Vegas. Elliott has won twice at Dover and owns nine top-5 finishes in 12 starts. Fading him just because he missed two races early in the year is foolish, especially since his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have proven that the team has plenty of speed this year. But with Larson, Bell and Elliott all trading at 10-1 or shorter, we’ll have to make some tough decisions to ensure this is a viable betting card.
Trust the Process & Limit Your Exposure
That fact I’m handicapping Dover with such a limited and attenuated dataset means I can’t reasonably recommend too much exposure on the outright markets. I also can’t reasonably recommend betting on all three of Larson, Bell and Elliott to win — even at the best prices, you’d still be buying 35.9% of implied probability on just 8.3% of the field.
Let’s limit our action on the favorites to only Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. Larson’s price isn’t great, but we can still find the 6-1 at BetMGM. Almost every other book has him at 5-1 or shorter, except Caesars, where he sits at an even worse price of only 9-2. Larson has dominated the start of the Cup Series season with two wins and 468 laps led. He arguably should’ve won at Bristol Dirt and Phoenix as well. Further,
Dover has been good to Larson in the past. He owns the best average finish at Dover of all active drivers (6.9) and has one win and seven top-5 finishes to his name in 14 starts. He dominated the 2021 race here before losing out to his teammate, Alex Bowman, and finishing second.
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Unlike Elliott and Larson, Christopher Bell is yet to win at Dover in the Cup Series. He finished a career-best fourth here last season after failing to lead a lap. The result marked his first finish inside the top 20. However, a look at only Bell’s Cup Series statistics misses out on the bigger picture. Bell absolutely dominated here in the Xfinity Series. He finished fourth in his first-ever start before winning his next two. Bell led 38.5% of all possible laps across the two wins.
Bell hasn’t looked as dominant as Larson early this year, but he has consistently kept his car at the front. He leads in the points standings with one win, five top-5s and seven top-10s over 10 starts. Bell owns the best average finish among entered drivers this weekend (10.9). With qualifying likely to be rained out for Sunday’s event, Bell would start second because of his solid eighth-place result at Talladega and solid form thus far.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 6-1 for 0.3 Unit at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Bet: Christopher Bell 10-1 for 0.2 Unit at BetMGM
Which Longshots Are Worth Backing?
I have three longshots bets on my card for members of OddsShopper Insider Access, and I’ll share one in this article and one via the OddsShopper YouTube Channel. I’ll share my absolute favorite with you all since this number will come off the board if I wait too long: Josh Berry at odds of 40-1. Berry just scored a runner-up finish at Richmond in relief of Chase Elliott two weeks ago, and he’ll take over the No. 48 Chevrolet for Alex Bowman this weekend.
Unlike most substitute drivers, Berry has already gotten acclimated to racing in the Cup Series. With five starts under his belt this season, making the transition won’t be a big deal — especially after his coming out party at Richmond. Although he needed some savvy strategy calls from his crew chief to get there, Berry held onto the track position he gained with skill at a track he had finished no better than third at in the Xfinity Series.
Berry, a short-track racer by trade, has shown flashes of brilliance at Dover in his short Xfinity Series career. He led 48 laps in his first-ever start here on his way to a runner-up finish, recording the third-best driver rating in the process. He then won in his second start after leading 55 laps and recording the second-best driver rating. He is the favorite to win this weekend’s Xfinity Series race and sits with odds as low as 25-1 at Caesars. Let’s lock in the 40-1 at DraftKings before that number disappears.
Best NASCAR Bet: Josh Berry 40-1 at DraftKings for 0.08 Unit
