We nailed a +175 ticket on Josh Berry to score a top-10 finish at Dover, putting us firmly in the green despite losing our matchup bet because of a pit-road error by Brad Keselowski’s crew. I’m looking forward to rolling that momentum forward into this weekend’s event at Kansas Speedway, so let’s get into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s AdventHealth 400, including Tyler Reddick.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the AdventHealth 400 | Kansas
This is Tyler Reddick’s Race to Lose
I’m breaking some of my rules by playing a top-5 bet at odds much shorter than my recommended value threshold of 4-1, but I’m only making an exception to get more exposure to Tyler Reddick. Reddick owns odds of 2-1 to score a top-5 result in Sunday’s AdventHealth 400, which implies a 33.3% chance he does so. Although his raw odds of scoring a top-5 in the 36-car field are 13.9%, still I give Reddick better odds of scoring a top-5 than the market.
The No. 45 Toyota that Reddick will pilot on Sunday won the last two races at Kansas with two different drivers behind the wheel. Kurt Busch won the spring Kansas race in this car, and then Bubba Wallace won the fall Kansas race in it. Although Reddick didn’t perform well at the lone comparator track to Kansas already run this year, Las Vegas, his team had to replace the engine in his car before the race, leading him to miss both practice and qualifying. He still finished 15th and recorded the 12th-best driver rating after starting 34th. Wallace, his teammate, finished fourth.
Reddick ran well in the last two races at Kansas. He led 24 laps after starting second before suffering a tire failure in the spring race. He then led 38 laps after starting on the pole in the fall only to again suffer a tire failure. Reddick led the field in green-flag speed rating in the latter event, ahead of the No. 45 Toyota, which ranked third. Let’s trust him to bring this car home in no worse than fifth place on Sunday.
Best NASCAR Top 5 Bet: Tyler Reddick Top 5 2-1 for 0.75 Unit at BetMGM
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Can Bubba Wallace Beat Out Kyle Busch?
We’ll get some more exposure to the 23XI Racing stable with this NASCAR head-to-head bet. FanDuel Sportsbook is lining Bubba Wallace up against Kyle Busch with the juice heavily stacked in Busch’s favor for Sunday’s event. That’s a major, major mistake. Wallace finished 10 spots ahead of Busch in the lone comparator event at Las Vegas and recorded a much higher driver rating, 101.6 to 86.6.
The green-flag speed data from Las Vegas should concern both Busch and his Richard Childress Racing teammate, Austin Dillon. Busch ranked 12th in green-flag speed, well behind sixth-ranked Wallace, while Dillon ranked a miserable 26th. Although Reddick’s tire failures hurt the team’s results at Kansas last year, no RCR car finished better than 13th here last season. In contrast, 23XI’s full-time drivers finished no worse than 10th.
Let’s trust both 23XI Racing drivers to have an edge coming into Sunday’s event. Further, RCR should be viewed as entering Sunday’s event at a disadvantage. The results from Vegas suggest that the speed the team showed at high-speed intermediates like Kansas late last season may have fallen more on Tyler Reddick’s skill than the team’s equipment. The matchup between Busch and Wallace should have near-even juice, so we’re getting a steal on Wallace at the current price of -102.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Bubba Wallace vs. Kyle Busch -102 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
