The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second superspeedway race of the year. After Fords dominated the Daytona 500 but couldn’t get across the line in first, they looked great in Saturday’s qualifying session for the Ambetter Health 400. The top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s action include Harrison Burton, who is trading at far too long of a price just to score a top-10 result.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only those who follow my Twitter account will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Ambetter Health 400
Can Harrison Burton Catch Up With His Teammates?
Although Harrison Burton struggled in qualifying, his teammates did not. Team Penske will start first through third, which suggests Burton has more power under the hood than he showed early. Look for him to bounce back once the green flag flies — and after his team has a chance to make some adjustments to align his car with what worked for Austin Cindric, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney.
In this week’s outright column, I touted Burton to win at 100-1. That price is somehow still on the board despite the speed his teammates showed in qualifying. Although he hasn’t done much at these tracks in the Cup Series Burton has a solid superspeedway resume from his time in the lower series. Burton has five top-10 results over eight Xfinity Series starts at superspeedways.
Burton’s most impressive superspeedway performances, a runner-up and third-place finish at Daytona in the spring Xfinity races, suggest he should run well in Sunday’s cooler conditions. Burton has also led laps in both of his Daytona 500 starts and performed well in the duel races. Although Burton only has two top-10s to his name in the Cup Series, he deserves a price much shorter than the 17-2 (10.5%) posted by FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Harrison Burton 17-2 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
Will Michael McDowell Outrun Erik Jones?
Oft-overlooked Michael McDowell is in the plus money just to finish ahead of Erik Jones. Although Jones is a capable superspeedway driver himself, the number of factors that are entirely outside of a driver’s control at superspeedways usually make playing head-to-head markets at even or longer odds a sharp investment.
McDowell has been one of the most consistent superspeedway drivers for years. He won the 2021 Daytona 500 and routinely runs up front with the other Ford drivers. While Erik Jones strung together some solid superspeedway runs last year, including a fourth-place showing at last summer’s Atlanta race, he tends to underperform in cooler conditions. He finished 14th here last spring and hasn’t scored a top-25 finish in the Daytona 500 since 2020.
This play should have an even price, but because Caesars has stacked the juice in Jones’ favor, bettors can find a fair bit of value on McDowell. The driver of the No. 34 Ford will even start Sunday’s event in 12th, far ahead of Jones, who is stuck back in 28th. Starting position isn’t everything at superspeedway tracks, but McDowell should at least have an easier time staying out of trouble early in Sunday’s event.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Michael McDowell vs. Erik Jones +105 for 0.5 Unit at Caesars
