After a solid payday at Richmond that saw us cash both our props, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the only event on an unpaved surface this year. With no practice, drivers will jump straight into their cars for the heat races on Saturday. The top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for the Food City Dirt Race include Joey Logano.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Food City Dirt Race
Who Steals A Surprise Top-10 Finish?
Since this is the Cup Series’ only event on a dirt track, the series regulars without much dirt experience don’t have many chances to improve outside of the simulator. However, two drivers without enough dirt experience in NASCAR’s lower divisions look like solid contrarian plays to score top-10s.
First up is Todd Gilliland. Gilliland won the Truck Series race at Knoxville last year and finished fourth at Bristol Dirt. He only finished 17th at Bristol Dirt in the Cup Series, but Gilliland has a more impressive resume on dirt than most of the field.
The Front Row Racing cars have shown some extra speed lately, too. Gilliland has one top-10, which came at the Circuit of the Americas, and three top-15s, one of which came last weekend at Richmond. Gilliland’s teammate, Michael McDowell, finished sixth at Phoenix and 13th at Richmond.
I posted this play in the OddsShopper Insider Access once it opened at +1000, but FanDuel has since dropped the price to only +250. You’re much better off playing this at Bet365, where the +275 is still on the board.
Next, Austin Dillon has put together some solid runs on dirt. He won the Truck Series event at Eldora Speedway in 2013 after leading 64 of the 125 laps, beating out dirt veterans like Kyle Larson and Ryan Newman in the process. Dillon crashed out of last year’s Bristol Dirt race but paced the field in green-flag speed through 211 laps.
Dillon’s then-teammate, Tyler Reddick, nearly won last year’s event here. With Richard Childress Racing showing respectable speed early in the year, let’s back Dillon to finally deliver on dirt in the Cup Series.
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Austin Dillon +220 for 0.33 Unit at Bet365
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Todd Gilliland +275 for 0.17 Unit at Bet365
Can Joey Logano Keep Beating William Byron on the Dirt?
The books are high on William Byron, but perhaps undeservedly so. Byron isn’t a dirt track racer by trade and has struggled at Bristol Dirt in the last two years. He finished sixth here in 2021 after failing to lead a lap but recording the fifth-best driver rating. He regressed in the NextGen car by finishing 18th here last year with the 19th-best driver rating.
Joey Logano didn’t grow up racing on dirt, either, but he has put together far more impressive runs here. He won the inaugural event with the best driver rating before finishing third last year with the sixth-best driver rating. Logano fared better in the green-flag speed metric for both Bristol Dirt events as well. Although Hendrick Motorsports has shown plenty of speed early this season, stacking the juice on Byron against Logano feels like a mistake.
Both Byron and Logano are slated to get reps in on Bristol Dirt before the Cup race. Logano will pilot the No. 66 Ford in the Truck Series race, unless the heat races get rained out, in which case he’ll miss the show. Byron will take over the No. 51 Chevrolet for Kyle Busch Motorsports. As long as it doesn’t rain this afternoon, Logano’s participation in the truck race will put him on the same playing field as Byron. I sincerely don’t understand what edge the books think Byron has this weekend.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Joey Logano vs. William Byron +100 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
