I’ve already touted my outright picks for this weekend’s action at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, my home track, so it’s time to dig further into the betting odds for some props. The undervaluation of Hendrick Motorsports is a surprise, especially since we’ll see the short-track package in use again. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s Crayon 301 at New Hampshire, which include Alex Bowman.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire
Don’t Sleep on Alex Bowman
The world has forgotten about Alex Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet, but expect a reminder this weekend. I have written at length about the advantages Hendrick Motorsports should have at New Hampshire this weekend with the short-track package in use again. The team is yet to lose a race run with that package: William Byron won at Phoenix, then Kyle Larson won at Richmond, Martinsville and North Wilkesboro.
Bowman wasn’t far behind his teammates in those events. He brought the No. 48 home in ninth at Phoenix, eighth at Richmond and 11th at Martinsville. He didn’t get a chance to run at North Wilkesboro. In all, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have racked up 10 top-10s in the four events using the short-track package, including a 4-for-4 showing at Phoenix with Josh Berry driving the No. 9.
Unsurprisingly, Bowman’s teammates all slot in north of +100 (50%) to score a top-10 result at New Hampshire. That’s true despite William Byron not having a single top-10 at NHMS across five career starts. Unlike Byron, Bowman has a top-10 here — he recorded it in 2021 — along with four additional top-15 finishes. Bowman isn’t a lock to score another top-10 result, but we’re getting him at odds of +200 (33.3%) via Bet365, which is hard to pass up.
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Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Alex Bowman +200 for 0.45 Units at Bet365
Are the Books Too High on William Byron?
As mentioned above, William Byron is yet to record a top-10 finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the Cup Series. His teammate, Chase Elliott, just finished second here last season and has three-career top-10s to his name at the Magic Mile. Yet despite Elliott’s better performance here, BetMGM lists Byron as the favorite to finish ahead of him at odds of -120 (54.6%). Elliott is the underdog at -110 (52.4%).
While it’s true that Byron is having a better season than Elliott, he hasn’t outperformed him in the short-track package. The two have run against each other in the package just twice this season, and Elliott finished ahead of Byron both times. Elliott finished 10th at Martinsville and fifth at North Wilkesboro, ahead of Byron, who finished 23rd and 20th, respectively.
Byron has also failed to outperform Elliott at New Hampshire in the past. The two have run five races against each other, with Elliott beating him in four of those starts. Elliott has also led laps in four of his last five starts at Loudon for a total of 98, while Byron is yet to lead a lap here. Byron’s struggles at NHMS were enough for him to run the Xfinity Series race here for JR Motorsports last year. He finished 26th after leading 22 laps in that event.
Best NASCAR Matchup Prop Bet: Chase Elliott vs. William Byron -110 for 0.55 Units at BetMGM
