We passed on the prop markets for Martinsville, but the last prop column hit two plays — Austin Dillon to score a top-10 at +220 and Todd Gilliland to score a top-10 at +275 (or +1000 if you saw it in the Discord). With an exciting race at Talladega on tap, let’s get into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s GEICO 500, including Kevin Harvick.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the GEICO 500 | Talladega
Who Scores a Surprise Top-10?
Ah, Talladega. We dove into the complexities of betting on this track in this week’s outright column, but I’ll give you the quick version: superspeedways, or drafting tracks, are likelier than other tracks to come down to luck. But recently, Ford drivers have found an edge on superspeedways, as they have led 57.5% of the laps and controlled 40% of the top-5 finishing spots. Joey Logano has two top-5s at superspeedways this year while Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher have one apiece.
We’ll focus on one Ford driver for our top-10 bet this weekend. However, unlike with the outright markets, we’ll pick a driver who excels at keeping his car clean and bringing it home in one piece as opposed to contending for the win. While leading the race necessarily helps drivers stay out of trouble, running at the back until the final run can also produce solid results.
Despite his recent inability to win at these tracks, or perhaps because of it, Kevin Harvick stands out as a sharp play on the top-1o markets. Harvick owns three career wins at Daytona and Talladega, but he hasn’t won at either track since 2010. However, he also owns the lowest DNF rate at these tracks of all full-time drivers at only 7.7%, tying him with Martin Truex Jr.
But unlike Truex, who has only three top-10s to his name over that 13-race sample, Harvick has six. He has also scored a top-10 result in three of his last four starts at Talladega. Harvick’s top-10 odds sit at +120 on Bet365, but OddsShopper Insider Access users got this at +210 on FanDuel, which has since dropped the number to +100!
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Kevin Harvick +120 for 0.5 Unit at Bet365
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Can Justin Haley Beat Out Austin Hill?
DraftKings Sportsbook is matching up two of the best Xfinity Series superspeedway drivers against one another at even odds. Doing so seriously underestimates the massive advantage that one driver’s team has over the other. Justin Haley drives for Kaulig Racing, a full-time team with plenty of assets and experience, while Austin Hill drives for Beard Motorsports, a part-time venture. Hill crashed out of the Daytona Duels earlier in the year, preventing him from making a start in the Great American Race.
Beard Motorsports hasn’t been good lately. After taking a one-year hiatus in 2021, the team ran three events with Noah Gragson and one with Justin Allgaier in 2022. The duo recorded one top-5 finish, which came at Daytona in the summer, after almost the entire field crashed out. Only 10 cars finished on the lead lap in that event. Neither Gragson nor Allgaier could get this car to do much in any superspeedway event, and the crash at Daytona this year certainly won’t help the small organization.
Haley didn’t do much at the superspeedway tracks last year, but he piloted his No. 31 Chevrolet to a better finish than the No. 62 in three of the four races it attempted. Haley excelled at keeping his car clean at the superspeedway races last year, and his lone DNF fell more on rain than driver error. Haley has started 10 of the last 13 Cup Series races at Daytona and Talladega and owns just two DNFs. With both drivers at -110, let’s back the one driving for the organization with a massive resource advantage.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Justin Haley vs. Austin Hill -110 for 0.52 Unit at DraftKings
