I’ve already touted my outright picks for this weekend’s action at Pocono Raceway, so it’s time to dig further into the betting odds for some props — the Tricky Triangle can get, well, tricky. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono, which include Bubba Wallace.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono
Bubba Wallace Deserves More Respect
This season hasn’t gone perfectly for Bubba Wallace, but it’s gone well enough. He sits a solid 15th in the points standings, which puts him one spot above the playoff cut line. He has recorded four top-5s and six top-10s this year, which, while not world-beating numbers, are solid when compared to his 23XI Racing teammate, Tyler Reddick. Reddick has a win but only five top-5s and eight top-10s.
Wallace probably won’t challenge for the win at Pocono Raceway, but he should contend for another top-10 finish. He just scored one at New Hampshire last weekend, bouncing back from a five-race cold spell without one. Some of Wallace’s best performances have come at the four tracks I’m using as comparators this weekend: Charlotte (P4), Gateway (P30), Nashville (P15) and New Hampshire (P8).
Wallace has the 12th-best average driver rating across the four comparator tracks, edging out drivers like Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman, all of whom have shorter odds to record a top-10 than Wallace across the major sportsbooks. Further, Wallace has recorded a top-10 result in his last two starts here for 23XI Racing with a worst finish of 14th. This isn’t his best track, but his top-10 odds of +120 (45.5%) at Bet365 and BetMGM are inefficient.
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Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Bubba Wallace +120 for 0.4 Units at Bet365
Are the Books Too High on Kyle Busch?
One of the favorites for this weekend’s race, Kyle Busch, hasn’t shown enough for me to understand his relatively short outright odds of +650 (13.3%). That creates an opportunity for us on the matchup markes. FanDuel Sportsbook has Busch lined up against Denny Hamlin this weekend, but Hamlin is far better positioned to run well here than Busch.
Hamlin has looked much better at the relevant comparator tracks this season. He owns the fourth-best average driver rating across the four venues (102.5), far ahead of the eighth-best Busch (89.6). The No. 11 Toyota crossed the stripe ahead of the No. 8 Chevrolet in half of the comparators as well, with Hamlin finishing one spot behind Busch at Gateway and crashing out after leading early at Charlotte.
The Pocono data also points to a meaningful edge here for Hamlin. He is the winningest active driver at Pocono with six trips to victory lane. Busch has four. Hamlin has also led a monstrous 818 laps here, much more than the 585 Busch has led. Hamlin’s average finish (11.8) also slots in well above Busch’s (15.7). Although Hamlin is favored over Busch, the odds of -118 (54.1%) at FanDuel underestimate his edge.
Best NASCAR Matchup Prop Bet: Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Busch -118 for 0.6 Units at FanDuel
